Quote from Brian Connelly on September 8, 2020, 5:04 pm

= 139 MM.   Padres have "only" 6 MM+/- to address needs:  RH Closer, CF capable RH 4th OF, Super utility...

But wait.   How about this:

• 2 MM   TRADE: P. Johnson 100% contract (w/Minor asset for PTBNL); also saves 500K max incentives '21 + 1 MM (or 3 MM) in '22
• 2 MM   TRADE:  Stammen 50% 2021 contract (w/ Significant asset & $ for PTBNL); also saves 500K max incentives '21 +0.5 MM (or 4 MM) in 2022; assumes Pads pay 50% of 2021 salary & 50% of 2022 buyout (500K) or towards '22 salary.
• "Already" replaced on Roster by 2 of 3 Mariners trades "no options" RP's:  A. Adams, Altavilla, T. Williams

Payroll now down to: 135 MM = 10 MM for needs.  How about...

• 3.5 MM BASE:   New contract to Yates
• 2.5 MM BASE:   New contract to Profar
• Ideally both: 1 year + club option; relatively large buyout vs. large salary increase (Yates dominant?  Profar = LF 22?).   Would also heavily incentivize Yates, but that's not part of O.D. payroll.  Richards, Rosenthal, Johnson & Stammen incentives totalling around 4.5MM on ending payroll 2020 are all gone.

Payroll is now:  141 MM leaving up to 4 MM to find a good "true" RH 4th OF that can really handle CF.

Market & Yates' misfortune perfectly dovetail for Padres; it makes more sense for him to return on 1 yr deal here than elsewhere.  Maybe 1.5 MM buyout vs 10 MM salary '22?   2.5 - 3.5 MM Incentives so "2019 Kirby" results = $ incl buyout > 2020 (7 MM) or even > 2021 Pomeranz (8 MM)?   Profar... 1 MM buyout vs ?? 6 MM salary '22?  Either "No" or unlikely incentives (400+ PA's?).  Maybe I'm way off on Profar, but I don't think so.  I thought FA Market in 2019 pretty clearly showed he wasn't "worth" 5.7 MM... next year much tighter.

 

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 8, 2020, 5:26 pm

.... Leads to this team for </= 145 MM in 2021:   LIKE OUR CHANCES!

SP:     Lamet, Clevinger, Davies, Paddack, "Prospect"    good depth with elite upside but limited experience (except Lucchesi)

RP:   YATES, Pomeranz (L), Pagan, A. Adams, Strahm (L), T. Hill (L), Guerra, J. Castillo (L), Altavilla, T. Williams, Bednar, "SP Prospects"                                     still a lot of out of options guys even if Johnson & Stammen traded.  It's possible rosters are expanded again next year, which Preller might be counting on here...

STARTERS:   Nola, Hosmer (L), Cronenworth (L), Tatis, Machado, Pham, Grisham (L), Myers,

BENCH:          Mejia (S), Moreland (L), PROFAR (S), "New Guy" 4th OF/CF (R), Mateo (likely) / G. Allen (S)            Nola & Profar's versatility would allow 3 C's, but seems likely Campusano starts in Minors to Catch every day at first?

Quote from fenn68 on September 8, 2020, 6:13 pm

Both of those posts seem about right. We will see how Profar and Yates feel about those contracts.

Given his age ... would not be surprised the Padres guarantee a two year deal with Profar considering his versatility and really nothing significant coming for 2022 after Pham and Garcia are gone. Two year deal may allow them to offer the lower AAV. Think his major value is the super utility player and not LF unless no other option is added.

Yates is just harder ... age against him (a year layoff does not help) ... but RP (closers) are always in demand and this may be his last shot at a bigger deal ... so going incentive off a low base for one year is not going to be an easy sell even if he loves playing in SD. Padres may also go with a 2 year deal for Yates (lower overall AAV) considering even in 2022 there is not lock for closer (or even the back of the pen RHRP) ... betting on Pagan to rebound and Adams to develop ... then Stammen is gone ... Johnson is a FA if not gone ... then some upside options but still questions. Might be worth the extra money guarantee as the gamble over of the "could be" group.

I can see the Padres being in the best position to go deep in the playoffs in both 2021 and 2022 so hanging on to two proven pieces (for what they do) for continuity makes some sense. Plus the money in 2020 should have some wiggle room with Pham, Davies, Stammen, Johnson, Garcia out of the picture covering the next level arbitration increase for the others. Plus with any luck ... a successful Padre team in 2021 is played with fans in the stands and probably a lot for this exciting team (more money) or without any luck ... MLB is on strike and they don't have to pay them.

Quote from fenn68 on September 8, 2020, 6:27 pm

I would guess Preller will have a prime focus on dealing a number of the "out of option" RP and likely the fringe ML arms in Lucchesi and Perdomo. Doubt any would get a significant improvement to the ML roster for 2021 but could see one of two strategies: 1) Preller favorite .. find an under appreciated low minors prospect for the future, or 2) considering there will be very very little emergency position player back-up in AAA/AA .... some legit call up pieces for AAA/AA. Hopefully players that will have a couple year shelf life in the organization and would not embarrass themselves as bench players. Never know there may be another Cronenworth in the weeds if a team needs RP help.

Side: Preller and staff will be hunting down a lot of fringe ML FA and MiL FA to fill out AAA/AA rosters ... those rosters really look barren when it comes to position players. To that end, and given what is expected to be a grim ML FA market, may see some familiar names signed to AAA contract with non-roster invites to ML camp.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on September 9, 2020, 10:44 am

Thanks guys for your comments and I completely understand your points of view.  I do have an alternate reality if we basically keep the same core players going forward and will express that soon.  But this was pre-2021 planning and the fact that Dennis Lin of The Athletic stated in response to one of the questions in the Padres Mailbag that the Padres are "expected to shop Wil Myers again" at least has to make one consider what could we get from him.  He's having a career year in 44 games and that is fantastic for us and I hope he continues it throughout the post-season.  My pre-planning suggestion is shop him "for the moon" which would be an elite pitcher who could continue in the Verlander/Scherzer/Greinke mode for several years beyond Davies and Clevinger and be that anchor for a still young rotation if we cannot re-sign or do not want to re-sign either one.  We can then get a cheaper but still productive OF by utilizing our other assets, including trading Davies or Clevinger before they become FAs.  It is only a suggestion of the myriad of options we could be shopping him for.

However, if Boston said yes, would you pull the trigger?  They are in a rebuild mode and need more than Sale.  Much of their team, especially the OF, are LH hitting and Myers could tattoo the Green Monster regularly.  What would the other pieces in the trade be - 1-2 controllable pitchers?  We do have a lot of pitching on the current roster and desirable prospects in the minors and on paper it really does look good, but TJ surgery is right around the corner for almost any pitcher and many never make that last leap from super potential to elite starter - see Forrest Whitley, Houston Astros.  I'm hoping that all our starters reach their projected potential BUT if I can get a guy that is better than Clevinger and somehow balance out the money going forward, at least in the short run, I have to think long and hard about it.  Got to put your AJ Preller hat on, which can be downright scary at times!

I'll submit something later on what I think they most likely will do, which is what you guys have already addressed quite well.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 9, 2020, 11:07 am

I'm not sure I like the idea of trading Myers any longer.

We traded Trammell,Olivares and Naylor.......so our OF next year without Myers would be Pham/Grisham/Ona?

I think I prefer the offense rather than saving the Org. money.

Same with Luchessi.....Now that we traded Quantrill with Richards probably moving on do we really want to completely depend on Gore and Patino to step up and be effective in their first starting roles ever above AA at the Big League level?

I kind of like having Joey as a fallback option.

Of course...this is considering that no other moves are made to add an outfielder or a starter.

If you can add a top starter with control for Myers as you mentioned that would be tempting....but we also need to replace Myers offensive production.

Who you gonna get to do that?

Also,the Red Sox need pitching more than almost anything...I just don't see them trading an arm for a bat.

I like the way this team is constructed right now and if we keep it intact all we really need is to find a 4th outfielder(Canha?) and maybe a RP depending on who we let leave.

Otherwise....this team is built to win next years also.......almost as is.

 

 

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 9, 2020, 11:56 am

Will be Preller be seeing what he could get for Myers ... sure but probably will be doing the same on every other player on the roster ... that is just what he does. It is what the other teams think that is critical.

If the issue is Myers falling back to the old Myers ... pretty good bet the other GM have that same concern and picking up two years at $41MM should make little sense to them unless: 1) they give the Padres and equal (or worse) contract back; 2) Padres eat enough of the Myers contract to make it appealing enough to actually give anything of value back; or 3) Padres one (or more) of their better prospects to make the deal with a cash rich team. Don’t see any of those options being good for the 2021 Padres playoff race.

That other team has to see Myers as a key to winning in the next two years ... not sure I see anyone out there .... with the money for 2021-22 payroll ... to harbor that illusion.

Not in favor of taking on an equally risky (bad) contract just to make a change or to eat money just to make a change ... best route is the link Myers with some desirable prospects. Would any team bite on a Myers - Paddack - Mejia offer for something of longer term value (like an OF with multi year control))?

Might be a reason Preller has been marketing Myers for years with no success ... don’t see how that has really changed baring an new, naive GM in the mix.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 9, 2020, 12:04 pm

Randy,  keep the ideas coming... that's what these boards are for.

But I'm going to agree with Mr P on this one... I think Preller basically shaped next year's team at this season's deadline.

The SP is now good, extremely deep, and very importantly to Padres (medium payroll) perfectly "staggered" with 1 -5 SP only having 1 FA coming "off" each year for the next 5 years.  After Richards, no more contracts; "just" guys in Arb, so no forward commitment risk like this year's ludicrous FA SP market (yes, I wanted Bumgarner... )  Even if there were a possible trade of Myers for an "elite SP" available, that would push Chris Paddack to # 5 & essentially block any of the 3 top 100 "on the doorstep" guys (Gore, Patino, Morejon... plus Baez) from SP in MLB....

I do agree with you not all our prospects are going to "make it" to their projected ceilings, depth is important, etc.  Agree with Mr. P that an experienced MLB SP even with limited upside like Lucchesi has very significant value in 2021.  Just think he may have MORE value to another team without our elite prospects as depth.  If I'm Preller, I shop him with Stammen & see if someone will take contract (basically 5 MM).  They might.   But I also think Preller may scour market for the classic 1 year cheap rebound deal for SP's coming off injuries for depth purposes.  But anyone in MLB would (initially) block a prospect assuming full health.  That's OK for maybe 1 year or less since they all missed playing in Minors in 2020.... but not beyond that.

Bullpen as discussed needs thinning out.  Ideally a RH closer.   Starting position players completely set with only the Pham/Profar/other debate.  Bench debatable & probably needs 1-2 pieces.   But the position player depth except C is already razor thin.  Ona may be the only other top 30 prospect position player (besides Jorge Mateo) in AA / AAA.  So trading Myers wouldn't just create a hole, it would be a gaping hole with no internal replacement.

BIG CAVEAT:   It is definitely possible that Fowler/Seidler tell Preller in offseason:  "Payroll has to be < 130 MM" or something like that.... then all big contracts are fair game.  For example, I couldn't help but notice that Moreland is 17 MM less than Hosmer next year.  But I really don't think they would have swung a trade like Clevinger if they were then going to make Preller try to unload big contracts in what might be the weakest market in 20 years for FA, esp big $ ones;  should be good "buyers" market (teams) for FA, bad "sellers" market (FA players or contract players getting dealt).

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 9, 2020, 12:08 pm

I do think Preller has to look a bit forward in his moves for 2021 that also create benefit for 2022-23. He wants to sustain winning and not create a flash and disappear.

After 2021 Pham, Garcia, Davies, Stammen, Johnson, Moreland are all FA and, except for SP, no internal prospects on the cusp of making impact as position players (except Campusano).

If he only focuses on 2021 ... 2022 could be a real roster issue.

Since SP is his only near term asset class that may impactful to the Padres going forward  ... actually focusing trade chips toward a multi-year OF (or two) makes most strategic sense. After 2022 Myers is gone and still not much internally (maybe Abrams for one OF slot). Plus, if Hosmer’s new swing remains effective, he will opt out of his remaining 3 year / $39MM deal in a post COVID / new CBA world.