Quote from fenn68 on September 7, 2020, 11:30 am

One issue that could be deferred until the end of ST as the 40 man is setting up is the number of players who will be out of options in 2021.

Just focusing on the bench / RP:

Moreland (L), Garcia (L), Allen (#), Mateo ... position players

Stammen, Johnson, Guerra, Adams, Altavilla, Williams ... RHRP

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ST injuries may defer some of the final decisions and IF they go with only one back-up catcher they could carry all four of the position players ... not an exciting bench / DH picture. Mateo, even though he can't hit, may be most valuable as an INF/OF option.

Bigger issue with the RHRP as the roster goes back to 26 ... 8 man bullpen with LHRP Pomeranz, Strahm, and Hill likely taking 3 (note Castillo, Morejon to minors). So, 5 RHRP but the roster has 6 without options plus Pagan and Perdomo are still in play (note Patino either minors or #5 SP). What adds to the problem for Preller is that other than Stammen ... the out of option guys have very limited ML track records (or success).

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Guessing that over the winter ... if Preller plans to add FA or make trades .... some of these "out of option" players will be targets for Preller to move.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on September 8, 2020, 12:54 am

I think any discussion of the 2021 season (and beyond) has to start with the elephants in the room, i.e., Myers and Hosmer, and the 43.5 million owed to them in 2021 and 22.  Both are doing great this year but is it sustainable?  Also, they are aging but not old.  Is it better to trade high and early, than to just hope they continue their resurgence for at least the next two years - and then what?  Also, what do the Padres have in their upper minors that can replace their HR and RBI potential that makes this year's team so explosive?  The only sure power bat in the system is Campusano beyond that are hit first batters with average projected power at best.  We could be surprised by both Abrams and Hassell, but both must develop that power tool further AND both are left-handed hitters.  Therefore, my first priority next year is to try to find a taker for Myers, who is probably more tradeable than Hosmer.  I could see Myers going to Boston, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Texas, the Angels or even Colorado along with a couple other pieces for a younger, still projectable power hitting RH OF that will also have a decent OBP.  That will be a tall order, but before shaping my roster for 2021, I'm going to look further ahead and see what I can get for Myers before moving on.   If I can't get that OF at the price I want, then my next target return for Myers is a quality SP because you just can't have enough top of the line SP even if you think you have some in your farm system.   Can't do either, then stand pat with Myers and maybe try to move Hosmer.  Those are my first thoughts on building the 2021 roster.  We still have 18 more games to go and the playoffs so that might reveal further the direction we go with FAs and exercising options.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 8, 2020, 3:42 am

Who plays 1B with Hosmer traded?

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 8, 2020, 5:20 am

No other team is going to take on those contracts in a year when every team has just come out of losing money during 2020. Padres would have trouble moving either for a PTNL.

No point in eating a major chunk if clearing payroll is the objective plus no equivalent replacement in house, so the Padres’ would have to go out and spend on a 1B or RF.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 8, 2020, 10:26 am

Thanks for starting this thread!   My overriding joy at the outcome of the trade deadline wasn't about any one specific player, or how we're going for it in 2020... it was that the trades made obvious that Preller (really Fowler/Seidler/ownership group) plan to contend sustainably for years going forward.

In my eyes, it seems pretty obvious Padres aren't going to for example "non tender" Tommy Pham to "save $ in 2021" when they just added Clevinger's salary AND traded away all the logical replacements FOR Pham (Trammell, Naylor, etc).  What would be the point of creating a gaping lineup hole on a playoff contending team, when we just traded away the Farm AND still are well above 100MMM+ payroll anyway?

I understand $ will be a major issue for teams in 2021 with attendance/revenue uncertainty & CBA looming end of year, but I think Padres have obviously committed to going for it in 2021 too, and can pretty easily do so at or below 2020's Opening Day payroll as I'll post here soon.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 8, 2020, 11:18 am

Well, this thread is "pre-2021 planning", so my thought is why not try to maximize an asset while that player is still considered an asset?  Will it leave a gaping hole in the line-up?  Depends on what you get in return and what you have left in your line-up and to possibly do other deals.  It's well known that Myers almost went to Boston for Mookie Betts, but we probably were unwilling to give up one of our crown jewel pitchers in that deal.  This was understandable because there was so much uncertainty about the starting rotation.  A year later, our current rotation (albeit Paddack needs to return to prior form) and future rotation pieces look pretty good, so why not pull the trigger on a trade.  What is the most valuable asset a team can have - I would argue that it probably is a dominant starting pitcher.  Those guys (outside of megastars like Betts and Trout) get the highest contracts in FA and are always sought out in trades for highly thought of prospects or young hitters on the rise.  So, just as an exercise and part of the pre-planning to maximize current and future assets, what if we traded Myers and others to Boston with the key piece coming back as Chris Sale?  If you think you are going to lose Clevinger down the road, what could you get for him in trade if you had a healthy Sale on your staff?  Probably can get at least a decent OF or 1b man - maybe a package similar to what we gave Cleveland?  Just trying to be imaginative and not closed to any possible deals.  I'd replace Myers with Abrams (CF) and move Grisham from CF to RF for 2021 or put Profar/Mateo/Allen (or get a cheaper OF veteran option) out there if Abrams not quite ready.  The upgrade in pitching will put less pressure on the offense to perform.  I'd make sure my package with Boston would balance out the salaries for at least in 2021 and not much difference in 2022 going forward.  Moreover, if we like Clevinger over Sale, can turn around and trade Sale.  My premise is that SP are probably the most valuable asset you can acquire so why not go after one.  As you can see, I'm not sold on Myers being much different from the Myers I've seen these prior 3 years+, so my idea is to strike while the iron is hot.  Unlikely it will happen but sometimes you have to think outside of the box and take some risk.  Have fun with this, guys!

Quote from fenn68 on September 8, 2020, 12:02 pm

Given that Myers only has 2 more contract years (and 2022 may be curtailed by a strike / lockout) .. just not worried about his contract. More worried that the Padres have zip behind Pham-Grisham-Myers even in 2021 and Pham goes after that season. If things go well ... could see Abrams up to replace Pham (Abrams to CF ... Grisham to LF since he has a noodle arm). Maybe Myers will not earn the $20MM but even the “old” Myers is better than any options in hand.

Really don’t want to add any financial obligations that extend beyond 2022 at this point .. don’t know what the new CBA brings plus the team is sprinting close to committing some big money for Lamet and Tatis ... and maybe Paddack. Plus soon after, a good chunk of money on Cronenworth and Grisham.

If the pitching prospects don’t materialize ... might prefer to extend (or try to) either Davies or Clevinger next year .... both are younger than a Sale (who will be 32 next season and still recovering from TJ but with 4 more years at $115MM) and likely cheaper.

For me the critical path is having the young SP prospects develop into quality ML pitchers to give a strong low cost base to allow for money to flow to the Tatis, Cronenworth, Grisham, Nola,  Lamet, Paddack types and maybe add some offense as Pham, Myers, Davies, and Clevinger fade away.

More worried about offense coming up the system in the next 3 years than pitching.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 8, 2020, 1:00 pm

I apologize for this "double post" (already in 2020 trades)... but it is more pertinent here...

We now have an extremely good #1-#5 SP.  When we're worried about our #5 SP being Paddack, we have a good team.

But the jaw dropping part is:   NO big SP contracts, ALL controlled pre or in Arb, in each of the next 5 years, only 1 of the SP's is eligible for FA!  In order:  #4 Richards-32 / #3 Davies-27 / #2 Clevinger-29 / #1 Lamet -28/ #5 Paddack-24...

... oh yeah, FOUR top 100 MLB SP prospects:  Gore / Patino / Morejon / Weathers... (1 MLB, 3 AA rotation?!)

.... plus in AAA:       Baez (former top 100) / Lucchesi / Jake Nix (MLB depth or trade chips)...

....plus #11-20 range in top 5 system:      Cole Wilcox / Justin Lange / Reggie Lawson

On paper, the Padres have dominant SP production & depth without having to sign/extend a FA for the next 5+ years, and that's without even drafting any more SP for the next 5 years (obviously going to)!   There is no pressure for the next 2 years for a prospect to "come in day 1" as a top of rotation guy; this dramatically increases their odds of success to the relative expectations.

Padres should, for this decade, be able to commit less % of $$ resources to SP than vast majority of other competitive teams due to the deep stable of MLB & prospect arms they have, and the "perfectly" staggered Free Agency dates.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 8, 2020, 3:03 pm

Randy, conceptually "selling high" especially on a mercurial guy like Myers makes a lot of sense.  But I'm with FENN; the dropoff in OF talent after Myers, Grisham, & Pham is vast.   In a few months we've traded:  Cordero, Olivares, Naylor, & Trammell, gutting essentially an overflowing AAA cache of OF prospects.  We're a contending team now, next year, and going forward, and will try to keep the core that's making it that way intact until it requires action.

I do think a small % of Preller's battle going forward will be to not "outsmart" himself by doing too big of a structural trade to a team that most nights is really rolling, especially offensively, up & down the lineup.  But I believe he'll keep it intact, partly because the market for big contracts like Wil's, Hosmer, even Machado is just going to be terrible in 2021 even though all 3 are having good seasons.   What team is going to want to add 20-30 MM/yr going into 2021?  That being said, coming into this season, after the disappointing 2019 for all 3 of those guys, I was going to start a thread like this with a 5-part diatribe on how Preller would have to look at EVERY option to trade 1 of them to make the "budget work" in 2021.

2 things are clear to me:  1) Ownership is all in on having a contending team in 2021+ despite the financial challenges.  It's clear to me they wouldn't have added payroll now & forward if they didn't plan to keep core guys like Myers & Pham.   2)  Preller will ALWAYS explore & establish "value" in trade for guys.  He does an exceptional job of this, and for once, it's actually really falls into the "due diligence" category of just keeping his finger on the pulse of "the market"; not laying the groundwork for 15 trades!