Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2020, 5:13 pm

Maybe not my top priority but since the plus FA SP will be expensive and long term commitments and the “value” options are just wide open gambles (but still cost) .... pretty sure Preller is looking at trade options.

Apparently available is Joe Musgrove (PITT) ... just turning 28 .... good stats ... 2 more control years at a team friendly number. Basically around a 4 ERA guy with still upside. From El Cajon.

No idea what it would take to deal for him ... but PITT needs to lower payroll and add younger players / prospects. Maybe a package of mid-range prospects (outside top 10) and/or some fringe ML player such as Lucchesi - Altavilla. If really liked ... maybe Mejia or Ona?

As I recall they brought up a nice 4th OF CF prospect ... Jarad Oliva (24), RHH, 6 years control ... who might be a nice compliment for Grisham over 162 games if the trade got bigger with stronger prospects going to PITT.

Any opinion on Musgrove?

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 18, 2020, 7:51 am

Conceptually I like the idea of trading for targetted SP like this vs chasing who happens to be available in FA...

But the Clevinger injury compounds the "who/what do we trade" dilemma.   MLB/close SP & RP were the 2 areas of strength.  I thought a trade of Lucchesi or Baez was inevitable, but sure feels like need to hold them now unless directly getting a P back as you propose.  There will be some RP trades at some point, but possibly not until ST.  I envision these as either "need for need" trades at MLB level (we trade RP for bench position player) or backfilling our Farm a little.

But position players, particularly at upper levels are decimated with TEN consensus Top 40 guys from last year traded away:  Trammell, X. Edwards, G. Arias, O. Miller, Olivares, Potts, J. Rosario are the big ones, but also:  C- Logan Driscoll (with Margot for Pagan), just named  PTBNL OF-Junior Perez OF (Mateo), & 2B-E. Quiroz (with Renfroe & X. Edwards for Pham & Cronenworth... OK there!)

IMO names like "Mejia" & "Ona" are no touch simply b/c that cupboard is already bare... but it's telling that you suggested them because... what else is there?  Mostly 2020 draftees or now 21-22 year old Intl Signees that are R5 eligible, haven't gotten past low A, and didn't play in 2020 (actually might benefit Padres).

The Padres DO still have a great system, but look a little closer:  A lot of it is the on/near MLB SP.   It's entirely possible, some would say likely, that of the consensus top 10 entering 2020 only 1 name will be on that list in 2022:  Abrams.   The rest graduated or traded.  SOME "backfill" of elite prospects with Hassell & Wilcox, but 2021 draft unlikely to land a top 10 system prospect picking end of 1st round.

Bottom line:  In 2022 depending on who graduates (more are likely with Clevinger gone), we are likely an average system with maybe 2-3 top 100 prospects.  But since the strength of the system is the MLB ready SP's + Abrams that we won't trade, what Padres are REALLY trading from at this point is an Average at best system.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 18, 2020, 9:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 17, 2020, 5:13 pm

Maybe not my top priority but since the plus FA SP will be expensive and long term commitments and the “value” options are just wide open gambles (but still cost) .... pretty sure Preller is looking at trade options.

Apparently available is Joe Musgrove (PITT) ... just turning 28 .... good stats ... 2 more control years at a team friendly number. Basically around a 4 ERA guy with still upside. From El Cajon.

No idea what it would take to deal for him ... but PITT needs to lower payroll and add younger players / prospects. Maybe a package of mid-range prospects (outside top 10) and/or some fringe ML player such as Lucchesi - Altavilla. If really liked ... maybe Mejia or Ona?

As I recall they brought up a nice 4th OF CF prospect ... Jarad Oliva (24), RHH, 6 years control ... who might be a nice compliment for Grisham over 162 games if the trade got bigger with stronger prospects going to PITT.

Any opinion on Musgrove?

Musgrove is a really good find.  Guarantee this conversation is happening.  He is a "neat" fit, with his Arb 2 salary closely matching the "savings" on Clevinger.  Not only local guy but "clubhouse leader & fierce competitor"... but he is going to cost more in trade I think.    Love the Jared Oliva idea, but don't see Pirates parting with him: their #10 prospect, 6 yr control, possible everyday MLB CF, floor 4th OF.

Musgrove missed a month (triceps) after his first 3 starts where he had control issue, then was increasingly spectacular over 5 starts in Sept where he ramped up by 1 IP/start exactly; from 3.0 to 7.0.  Only 6 ER those 5 starts in Sept.

Last 2 starts:  13 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 21 K !!!

Blows away past performance.  His career #'s are very steady/consistent &  comparable to Zach Davies:  BAA & WHIP nominally better than Davies, but ERA 4.33 vs 3.79    I feel Davies is unlikely to match last year's #'s over a full season, but indicators on Musgrove are much better; not hard to project a career year if healthy.

Toronto (team that originally drafted him) almost traded for him at deadline last year.  Have to think that cost has risen exponentially.   The Lauer for Davies deal has to have been ID'ed by 30 GM's as what NOT to do even if cost cutting (have to get more upside, not just "long cheap control"), so don't think it's overly helpful other than to say Lucchesi would be the logical backfill piece (i.e. "Lauer"), not the main piece back...   guessing starting point is a top 100 Prospect, with 29 other teams exaggerating their injury concern even though Musgrove decisively put that behind him last year.

Pirates ask (Padres need obvious):       Patino, Baez, another good prospect ("Hudson Head")

Padres:                                                        Baez OR Reggie Lawson, Lucchesi, Javier Guerra (perfect fit)

Compromise:                                             Morejon, Lucchesi, Guerra, & a top 15-30 prospect  ("Esteury Ruiz")

for:                                                      Musgrove, a MLB Non tender / DFA type, and a lesser/balancing prospect

Morejon to me still a top 100 prospect with way more upside than Musgrove, but his durability is a big concern.  It's 3 MLB spots out vs 2 (or 1) coming in (maybe a bench competitor/AAA depth), opening 1-2 roster spots for bench FA's & in season adds like Gore.  Pitt should have "open" roster spots with 5-6 potential non-tenders out of their massive 19 player arb class.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 18, 2020, 10:17 am

My Musgrove trade idea:

Best case:   Musgrove's last 2 outings not a fluke; hitting his stride & peaking as a good #2-3 MLB SP.  Throw in MLB piece is an Infielder who benefits from change of scenery & makes bench.  Balancing prospect is diamond in rough who has a good season & becomes top 30 prospect in 2022.   Morejon effective MLB P, but moved permanently to Bullpen.  Joey's performance similar & Non-Tendered in 1-2 years.  Guerra can't get over the steep learning curve & washes out.  Prospect never reaches MLB.

Worst case:  Musgrove's September an illusion.  OK performance but becomes Non-Tender decision next season based on performance relative to $ & development of young SP's (obviously that would be good).  Get nothing from other 2 guys.   Morejon grows into the strong #2 SP Pads hoped they were getting with 8 figure bonus & anchors rotation for 5 years.  Joey develops a 3rd pitch and better command & sticks for 3-4 years as a solid #4 MLB SP.  Guerra improves dramatically during 2021 & entrenches himself in back of pen for 4-5 years.  Esteury Ruiz hits like he did before we traded for him & Pirates call him up in Sept.

Quote from fenn68 on November 18, 2020, 10:42 am

Preller has to be struggling with payroll limitations (both 2021 and 2022), a system with some high upside prospects that he will not trade for a short term fix but then a thin second tier of prospects that would not get a significant return, a potential 162 game slate with big drop-offs from the starting 8 and without any replacements, the unknown of the DH in 2021, and pitching insurance against more injury.

Also if he want to be contending in 2021 and 2022 ... how to work around the FA of Pham and Davies after 2021 to provide a more stable transition. Also, on the pessimistic side, Clevinger returns for 2022 (built in replacement for Davies) but the track record of recovery from a 2nd TJ is not all that good so does he need to create some sort of buffer for 2022?

Limited money ... limited trade chips .... unknown on the potential production of the top prospects in 2021 .... but a lot of cranks to fill. How to fill the right ones ... and when.

Not sure the one big splashy move for 2021 fits all the limitations and unknowns. Maybe more this winter they patch a number of cracks ... see what materializes during the early season ... may a move (if needed) at the trade deadline when it can be more targeted to the greatest need.

With the Clevinger "savings" added now maybe as much as +$15MM to deploy. If you buy the MLBTR guesses ... that could get them Yates (closer), Happ or Minor (LHSP), and Galvis (INF support) all on one year deals off the FA market. Basically a mix along that line would really help a 162 game schedule. Someone like Happ is not more than a mid-bottom rotation arm in his late 30s but is that veteran who should be able to give stability / innings with lesser chance of injury that some of the other maybe better upside but higher injury profile options ... none of which are really a quality replacement for Clevinger. Need SP to actually go out there every start given the unknown on this staff. With Davies likely gone after the season (at least an unknown) and the return risk of Clevinger ... maybe a 2 year deal for the right guy is justified (and that could lower the AAV).

With the trade option, Preller has to be looking for similar profiles from teams that want to lower payroll and angle to get them for minimal trade assets if the Padres take the contract. If he can work a deal give up little but taking a "known" cost, that may work better than waiting for FA market to be clear and have to out bid others for similar talent (maybe bigger salary). The trick will be getting a team to move a player without giving up a major (in Preller's mind) prospect that is important for the future.

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 18, 2020, 10:57 am

Hard to see (but always surprised) to see much action on the trade front prior to the non-tender date unless there is a pre-emptive strike from a team that does not want to get in a bidding war on someone while seeing the contract / arb salary as acceptable ... seller team should be happy to get almost anything.