Quote from fenn68 on October 16, 2020, 6:44 am

If a DH, the Padres have a line-up that likely will be stable every day (except for injury) so potentially go with league minimum types for the bench roles (not good for Garcia ... good for Mateo / Allen / Mejia) ... and maybe sign a veteran to a minor league deal for AAA as the emergency call--up. Not going to need that much PH with the likely starting line-up.

Pitching will be interesting ... back to 13 arms should make use a bit different than in 2020 when 2+ extra arms in the pen. Add that if they go as planned to the 15 day IL for pitchers and the Padres are hamstrung with arms out of options ... not easy avenues to "rest" a pitcher or address a struggling (but still valued) arm without a DFA.

162 game slate historically demands the use of a lot of arms (starters and relievers).

1. Need to insure there are some quality arms to call-up in the minors ... (plus for Perdomo given experience)
2. Need some RP who can go multiple innings (effectively) so as not to burn the pen ... plus for Morejon / Patino
3. Need some RP that can go a number of consecutive games (effectively)
4. Should minimize the number of pitchers without minor league options to keep the pen "fresh" (factor in Preller winter trades?)

Does sound as though Preller is interested in adding a SP .... fuzzy as to going for quality (higher price tag) or reclamation (cheaper). Probably looking at both and maybe dependent if they set Rosenthal as a priority as the closer ... he may consume the bulk of available payroll space, if signed.

Need to make the playoffs first before building a roster for the playoffs ... over 162 a shut down closer (and making the pen deeper) may win them more games than adding a SP to replace one of Morejon / Patino / Gore. There is always the trade deadline to alter the mix.

Quote from fenn68 on October 16, 2020, 7:05 am

Interesting on the potential for a 6 team playoff with no off days in each series. So, 3 - 5 - 7 - 7 (World Series).

I like that approach since it advantages the "complete" teams which is a bit more fair after a 162 game schedule. WASH won it last year really with only 3 SP .. that got them squeaking into the playoffs then given the quality of those 3 they got the advantage.

However, that also implies that the higher seed gets a 3 game home series in round one ... but then "neutral sites" for rounds 2, 3, and the World Series. Can't have travel days and make this work. Not sure how that will fly with local fans and likely would get bashed by the media (they don't like change and will pretend to care about fans).

However, if money plays a part :), the neutral site approach might be really appealing if MLB looks at the "event" we see around the Super Bowl or the Final Four. Both become more than just the game and knowing the site years in advance can allow for a lot of pre-planning in the city and for MLB. 2020 was a test run ... seems to be working. Something to watch especially for the World Series ... maybe the League Championship.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 16, 2020, 10:21 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 16, 2020, 6:01 am

Quote from Ben Davey on October 15, 2020, 11:36 pm

Its been said already but Preller has to attempt to trade a few pitchers particularly relievers. No idea what if any value there is with Baez.  Stammen is probably worthless given his salary, but if you pay for 80% of it would a team take him, so the Padres can open a spot for Castillo?

If the Padres bring back Yates or Rosenthal it becomes even more important to trade others.

BTW the Padres acquired Taylor Williams from the Mariners and used him in all of one game.  They got him in a separate deal.  I wonder if it was just insurance for 2020, or if Preller seems him as part of the future moving forward.

Doubt a team would trade for Stammen even if the Padres ate 80% and give the Padres anything. At this point not measurably better than a lot of other options probably sitting on the FA market. If they think the Padres will move on from Stammen ... just wait for him to be released and try to sign him at league minimum (with the Padres paying the rest). No one going to claim him off waivers and take his contract. I see a $4MM dead money contract on the horizon for 2021.

Williams was likely more a combo of insurance for 2020 and a "test drive" of a potential arm. He has the "stuff" for a potential closer (big on K/9 and low HR as I recall) but history of sketchy control resulting in some real inconsistency. Not young (think 30ish) so Padres probable have through ST to "fix" him then DFA. I guess the gamble of a "prospect" (rookie ball pitcher) for near term upside arm. Unless there are a ton on injuries or a remarkable improvement, hard to see him not being put on waivers at the end of ST.

Stammen:   There are players who are going to have less value in a full (?) season vs 60 days, and players who will have more.  Stammen is the latter; is he the same guy as 3-4 years ago? No.  But he got set up to fail REPEATEDLY by Tingler/Preller with the absurd "let's use 5th starters who can NOT go beyond 3-4 IP" strategy inevitably catching up to them in regular season.  Then got shelled like many of our RP's all running on fumes vs one of the best offenses in baseball.  Stammen even this year had long stretches of effectiveness, he always stays healthy, he's a great "vet" role model for younger guys, and he simply is always among leaders in appearances & RP IP soaking up 70-80 of the almost 1,400 innings in a regular season.

Is he worth his contract going forward?  No, especially in Covid no fans era.  The way to trade him is to attach another player or prospect("asset") that has more value.  The obvious candidate is Lucchesi at minimum salary.  Another might be Michel Baez; less proven, more upside & longer, cheaper control.  I believe after all the Pads' bullpen trade additions, it is their intent to do this to free up most of Stammen's $ to go back into a Closer.

Williams:  Fenn, you're exactly right.  On surface it looks like a "waste"; traded a decent P prospect for 1 IP in MLB.  But now fast forward to end of ST.  Either we will have injuries & Williams will be there as depth, OR he has a phenomenal ST and earns a spot, OR (most likely) another team is desperate for bullpen help and we're able to trade him for more than we gave up to get him.

Quote from hoffy51 on October 18, 2020, 8:30 am

I think the only difference between us and Tampa Bay is two starters.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 22, 2020, 9:31 am

Now that the abbreviated 2020 season is in the rearview mirror, are we/the Padres comfortable with the results of what we saw from some of the unexpected performers over the season and that these performances will truly continue to and through the next year(s)?  I suspect we'll get some sort of analysis from the "experts" in the ensuing months and it will be interesting to see what their views are on the two most surprising players for 2020 - Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers.  I think how the Padres view the "new" Hosmer and Myers will go a long way to assembling the 2021 team to the extent that is within their control.  I know what I saw during those 60 games and the playoffs but I don't know if the numbers verify the same observations I made of these two players - it should be an interesting project to take a deep dive into the numbers and come up with some cogent analyses, even as an amateur!  If I find anything that seems worthwhile, I'll share it with the board, otherwise I'll just bumble along until spring training!  Hope everyone has a great off-season!

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 22, 2020, 1:06 pm

Hosmer and Myers resurgence was a surprise but then again....they had done it before so we knew it was there just didn't know if we'd ever see it again.

Whereas Grisham and Cronenworth were to me even more of a surprise only because we had no idea what we would get.

Now the question is.....can they be this player consistently or will there be a "sophomore slump".

If opposing pitchers make adjustments against them will they be able to counter?

The Insurance industry is full of ex ball players who were amazing with the bat their first year or two only to never be able to replicate it after the opposition figured them out....remember Shane Spencer in 98' and Kevin Maas earlier in the 90's with the Yankees?

Just two I remember well even though they were both Yankees....weird.

In my opinion these two,especially Jake,seem to have what it takes to hit no matter what they throw at them.

We'll see.....

Quote from fenn68 on October 22, 2020, 1:41 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 22, 2020, 1:06 pm

Hosmer and Myers resurgence was a surprise but then again....they had done it before so we knew it was there just didn't know if we'd ever see it again.

Whereas Grisham and Cronenworth were to me even more of a surprise only because we had no idea what we would get.

Now the question is.....can they be this player consistently or will there be a "sophomore slump".

If opposing pitchers make adjustments against them will they be able to counter?

The Insurance industry is full of ex ball players who were amazing with the bat their first year or two only to never be able to replicate it after the opposition figured them out....remember Shane Spencer in 98' and Kevin Maas earlier in the 90's with the Yankees?

Just two I remember well even though they were both Yankees....weird.

In my opinion these two,especially Jake,seem to have what it takes to hit no matter what they throw at them.

We'll see.....

As a former Cleveland fan "jolting Joe Charboneau" ... AL Rookie of the Year .... then crickets.

2020 gives us hope but a 60 game window is just not enough to buy into anyone's performance in 2021 ... be they Myers or Hosmer ... be they Cronenworth or Grisham.

Sort of leaning to Grisham as the safest bet to repeat ... defense which was top notch and plate discipline should just carry over. The others are still sitting on hope.

Bit worried about Cronenworth's batting in Sept ... really bottomed out after a great August ... plus couldn't hit LHP all season.

Hosmer has been a yo-yo offensively his entire career .... new launch angle on swing ... maybe sustains.

Myers ... been contending for years they need to just put him in one spot and leave him alone ... and clearly his relationship with Green was sub-optimal ... maybe Tingler and being settled in RF has him delivering his real potential ... or not.

Then although think Tatis has that great future ... will 2021 over a full season reflect that ... he too had a great August and really tailed off in Sept.

It COULD all come together again ... playoff quality. It COULD all regress ... problem. Most likely some regression here and there but still strong enough for a playoff run.

Quote from fenn68 on October 22, 2020, 2:00 pm

Always like comparative analysis to get a better evaluation of players ... so for 2020 players with a minimum 100 PA based on fan graphs' WAR:

C: Nola .... #2t out of 32 (product of an offensive (#7 wRC+) and defense (#7 dWAR).

1B: Hosmer ... #11 out of 44 (better than expected)

2B: Cronenworth ... #6 out of 50

SS: Tatis ... #1 out of 39

3B: Machado ... #3 out of 45

LF: Profar ... #13 out of 57

CF: Grisham ... #4 out of 44 (#1 in dWAR ... probably did not get the recognition he should have)

RF: Myers ... #5 out of 50 (only one with a real poor dWAR ranking)

Stepping back, to have all the starting eight players ranked within the top 13 in MLB is a remarkable achievement. Just to observe, Preller ended up with a team that really balanced offense and defense only Myers' dWAR and Profar's wRC+ were outside the top 15 rankings. (replacing Profar with Pham should improve the offense but hurt the defense ... so maybe a push).

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 23, 2020, 10:04 am

Even with the HUGE grain of salt for such a tiny sample, the regulars' WAR by position is really impressive.

Not trying to be pessimist, just a realist, that the 2020 outcomes leave little room for improvement; nowhere to go but down.

Tatis & Machado figure to remain near the top.  Tiny sample for Hosmer, but swing change for loft appears to have worked; I'm happy if he can stay top 1/3 >/= #15.   If we keep Pham & he's healthy, I think same for him: top 1/3 >/ = #19 in a contract year based on recent past performance is no guarantee, but very reasonable to expect.  If he moves on & it's Profar taking his place, I don't think he sustains/repeats that level.

The others:  Nola, Grisham, & Myers all top 10%, Cronenworth top 12-15% just a little hard to believe all 4 sustain at that level.  Cronenworth's strong playoffs encouraging after rough September.  Think there's a baseline he won't fall below, but I need to see a full season from him, Grisham, & Nola.  The ability of these 3 guys to avoid what is essentially a "sophomore" slump may define a lot of the Padres 2021 season.  With Myers the ability has always been there, but have to question him sustaining that level over a full season.  I'd be happy with top 25% from him.

Grisham's Gold Glove nomination is amazing recognition for his defense.  His "defensive runs saved" stat is best by far, but would be very surprised if he beats Bellinger.  It's mind boggling that he reached this level his 1st year in CF.  Others likely to surpass him defensively over a full season, but the ability to handle CF & excel at it defensively was clearly there... with room to improve!