Quote from Brian Connelly on October 13, 2020, 3:35 pm

Re:  DH or no DH...   Padres have the "luxury" of waiting to negotiate with Profar until (hopefully) the league decides relatively early in offseason whether or not NL will DH in 2021.

But they don't have that same luxury with Moreland or (to a lesser extent) Pham.  So I'd be pretty surprised if Pads bought out Moreland or non-tendered Pham.  Doing so would be giving up their potential value to ANY (NL) team in trade by just making them FA before the decision has happened; if DH is kept, losing either for nothing but $ savings that might not get re-spent would hurt.

Profar obviously has value in the field, but NL having DH gets him in the lineup WAY more often than if there is none (although he would PH/double switch in constantly).  His fate is kind of linked to Moreland & Pham's; who are "birds in hand" vs. Profar being a straight FA there's no guarantee we can re-sign.

Quote from fenn68 on October 13, 2020, 5:10 pm

Preller has a ton of unknowns to work his way through as he makes critical player / money decisions ... and likely decision on one player ripples on to other players as money limits begin to be crossed.

Think they have to take the option on Moreland ... $3MM but guaranteed does not give much wiggle room ... have to be betting on the DH in the NL.

Hard to think they would non-tender Pham but is at $7.9MM so probably near the same for his 3rd arb year. Don’t have to make the call until early December so they have about a month to see if an upgrade is possible with greater control via FA or trade. IF yes, a non-tender of Pham could open up about $8MM to add to any other money available for a pricier option. If they did offer him a contract ... they could still cut him in ST and only pay 25%(?) since he would be on a non-guaranteed deal. Should know about the DH before ST.

Before 2020 season would not have considered a non-tender but the Padres were one of the best offensive teams in 2020 with zero help from Pham (Covid early - bad early Aug - hamate - bad late Sep), expensive, and only one year control (at age 33). Add that he is a bad fielder. IF (big IF) his $8MM can be leveraged into a better option for 2021 (and with greater longer term control) have to consider it.

All that said ... I expect Pham and Moreland to be in ST with the Padres.

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IF there is a DH ... abundant room for Profar as a “regular”. He is in vs. LHP (Moreland sits / Pham DH) ... then over 162 games the 1st in the OF/INF to sub for the regulars ... and he is 1st in to cover injuries in the INF/OF (they will happen). Better than any of Mateo, Garcia, Allen when consider versatility / offense / defense ... what is that worth over 162 games? Does he allow for the other two subs to be league minimum types and “specialists”?

Quote from fenn68 on October 13, 2020, 5:30 pm

The MLBTradeRumors article on the upcoming arbitration process was interesting. Given the potential money issues with the teams .... maybe a lot of pressure to work deals before the tender deadline in December ... for the middling players might get them to sign for a team friendly deal just to avoid being non-tendered and hitting the FA market which may not be kind to them. Probably some of the decent (but over paid) players might get jettison. Add the real uncertainty about how arbitrators will consider 2020 performance (and all arbitrators are different) ... and issue for both sides.

Should be a lot of work for GMs and agents before December and IF the agents seem to be playing hard ball with their non-elite players ... teams may be motivate to just bail on the player had farm the FA market.

Padres have:

Arb 3: Pham ($7.9MM); Davies ($5.250); Garcia ($1.5MM)

Arb 2: Clevinger ($4.1MM); Strahm ($1.4MM); Perdomo ($0.95MM); Lamet ($1.3MM)

Arb 1: Pagan (minimum); Altavilla (minimum)

Don’t really see any non-tenders BUT given the situation could see the Padres try to get the 2021 salary a bit lower by giving a multi-year deal to selected players. Thinking (even though they are pitchers and are injured) Lamet and Clevinger ... maybe not beyond the “control period” but lock down the remainder of the arb decisions.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 14, 2020, 7:36 am

I think Garcia is a near certain non-tender; San Diego guy might look to do the team friendly deal.  But then the contract would be guaranteed.   Perdomo 50/50.  A lot of his value is tied to whether he retains an option; and you don't really want to be optioning guys getting paid arb $.  Pham very unlikely, but possible due to the $

Deciding factor for me is:  Can you trade the player at their new arb salary?  Garcia - No, but Perdomo holds some value over a long season with his experience & flashes of being really good when he's "on".

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 14, 2020, 8:00 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 13, 2020, 1:26 pm

Another “unknown” that may impact roster design ... how many NL teams will make the playoffs in 2021? 8 teams per league was a 2020 specific agreement. Commissioner Manfred has come out for 7 teams per league. CBA is at the old 5 teams per league with the one game Wild Card play-in.

If the “old” playoff structure .... and considering a 162 game schedule .... do teams need to focus more on setting a roster to win their Division rather than just making the playoffs and having a team built for the playoffs.

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Not directly a Padres’ decision point (they will be trying to win) but teams that were playoff contenders in 2020 (but not all that good) have to consider their roster moves for 2021 if their playoff changes are significantly reduced (could impact FA signings or not ... could impact trades in or out). Might be an advantage to the Padres in picking up some upgrades at a better price tag.

It is interesting.  The STUPID 1 game wildcard format led to many seasons where good teams realistically were not going to win their division, so they were trading assets out for the chance to play one game, where anything can happen.  This depressed the buyer's market by typically a few teams a year, on top of the fact a lot more teams were sellers or "stand pat".

The 16 team playoffs swung the pendulum too far the other way; way too few sellers in a 60 game season.  Even in a normal season there would not be many.  And it does potentially have a weird "depression" effect of if you're a 90-win team, there's not as much incentive to add a superstar to try to get to 95.  Whereas before, the teams trying to get in the playoffs were often competing in FA for those players to get them over the hump.

If I had to pick this season or prior years' playoff format, I'd definitely take this season.  But near consensus agreement that it needs to be shrunk some, and the very best records in regular season need a more significant reward (bye?  all at home with crowd?)

Quote from fenn68 on October 14, 2020, 10:16 am

Think Manfred's idea was 7 teams per league with the top record getting a bye for the 1st round but saw nothing about his view of round one being 1 game or 3 games or 5 games. At some point folks will argue the best record team sitting for X days is a disadvantage not an advantage. Would guess "home field advantage" does return for the higher seeds.

I guess we go back to the "old schedule" format of NL playing EAST-CENTRAL-WEST and limited INTER-LEAGUE. At least that makes the winning records a bit more comparable than this year.

Just going to be very hard to get negotiation done for 2021 given all the issues open ... and without the immediate pressure to start the season as it was this year. We know that did not go smoothly. No idea what side 1 is willing to give up to get something they want ... and visa versa. Plus all this with the specter of the CBA negotiations after the season.

My expectations for anything different than what was originally planned for 2020 rules before the entire shutdown negotiations is very low ... and if something changes it will be at the last moment.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 14, 2020, 3:21 pm

Listened to excerpts from Preller’s zoom conference call.

1. Apparently after review by “multiple” doctors of Lamet and Clevinger ... no structural damage requiring surgery ... just weeks of rest before resuming winter activities and expected to be at full speed for ST. (I know we always take that diagnosis with a grain of salt). Preller did sound pretty upbeat about their status ... so have to be optimistic. Made it sound more muscle than any issue with ligaments / bones. We will see.

2. Asked about the DH (and Moreland’s future). Sort of a split answer. First, he said they acquired Moreland think of value beyond 2020. Then accompanied that with his clear uncertainty about the DH in 2021 and the difficulty surrounding making roster decisions. He would really like some clearing before he has to make any decisions .... starting right after the World Series in about 2-3 weeks. (My read is that with a DH Moreland stays .... without a DH undecided but at risk).

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Separate, a report that the Padres have contacted Rosenthal’s agent about re-signing him (then again Preller talks with everyone). However, in his zoom, Preller said the trade deadlines adds (except for Rosenthal) where with a longer term value in mind ... I suspect he has already forgotten Castro is a FA. Maybe that just meant Rosenthal had no control past 2020 not that he was not interested in re-signing him.

Quote from Ben Davey on October 15, 2020, 11:14 pm

From everything I am hearing, the NL DH is almost a lock to continue.  It is getting overwhelming support from MLBPA and the owners.  While it hasnt been decided yet, most GMs are going into the winter assuming the DH WILL be in the NL

Rosters seem pretty set at staying at 26

Manfred did propose 7, I have heard that someone (MLBPA or owners, not sure which) countered with 6, with a best of 3 for the first round (similar to NFL),.

The one thing that I have heard recently that I find EXTREMELY interesting, is there is a lot of traction and praise for the current playoff setup (no off days).  I would think that if this continues, then complete bullpen construction becomes that much more valuable.  As much as I hate the Dodgers, its a HUGE thing that they have 5 starters who are all #2 or better (May would be an ace on half the teams in baseall).  There bullpen is also lights out, but they are the Dodgers and always choke.

By far the biggest impact on the upcoming season, is $$.  Realmuto and MAGA Bauer will get paid , but what about the rest.  Its a good point that someone like Garcia should be safe making 1.5 mil, but he will undoubtedly be non-tendered and HOPE for a minor league contract.  If there is no guarantee of fans in the stands, do you really see a team offering Leake, Minor, Fiers, Hamels, Moore, Paxton, Quintana, Stroman, Tanaka, Tehran, Waka, Walker 10+ mil/yr?  Yes, a team might splurge on one or two of them, but we were already seeing the market for mid-range players crater.  How much more will it crash with the possibility of no fans in the stands (or if they say no more than 10K).  Not to mention the group behind them might be lucky to receive a 2+ mil deal.  With deals suppressed, the Padres, who have very little money to spend, could get someone like Paxton on the cheap (5 mil).  Not that the Padres need starters, but having a rotation of Lamet, Clev, Paxton, Morejon, Davies is amazing!  You know someone will get injured and this time you are preparing Patino/Gore/Paddack/Baez etc.. to start.

Quote from Ben Davey on October 15, 2020, 11:36 pm

Its been said already but Preller has to attempt to trade a few pitchers particularly relievers. No idea what if any value there is with Baez.  Stammen is probably worthless given his salary, but if you pay for 80% of it would a team take him, so the Padres can open a spot for Castillo?

If the Padres bring back Yates or Rosenthal it becomes even more important to trade others.

BTW the Padres acquired Taylor Williams from the Mariners and used him in all of one game.  They got him in a separate deal.  I wonder if it was just insurance for 2020, or if Preller seems him as part of the future moving forward.