Quote from Randy Manese on October 9, 2020, 11:20 pm

To me, the pre-planning 2021 focus will be on pitching and more pitching.  It starts with who is healthy, both in the rotation and in the bullpen?  Will we re-sign some of our own major league/minor league FA pitchers?  What do we do with the guys without options but have some talent?   Will we expose all or some of the 32 pitchers that are Rule 5 eligible?  Currently, there are 24 pitchers on the 40 man (including those on the 45/60 day injured list) plus 3 FA to be.  We have 23 pitchers combined on AAA and AA rosters; 29 on Hi/Low A rosters; 58 on short season rosters; and somewhere around 34 on the Dominican League roster.  I don't think our situation is unique - probably all teams are trying to sort out what to do with all these pitchers and who really has the talent to rise to the major league level and stay there.  One thing I will say is that we probably have the best quality depth in our organizational pitching ranks than most teams, so there could be a lot of maneuvering to maximize the money we do have available in getting to the best 15-20 pitchers who we probably have to depend on to get through an entire 162 game season.  Outside of Clevinger, Lamet and Pomeranz, I think anything is possible, but in the end, not probable.  It will be exciting to see how different the upper levels of the Padres pitching ranks look, including the major league roster, from the current closing season rosters to the beginning of spring 2021 training - just 4 months away. I know for sure we won't be giving any of our FA's an 18.9 million qualifying offer!

Quote from Ben Davey on October 9, 2020, 11:41 pm

A couple things...

1. The "would you be comfortable with ______ even though they are injury prone" is a bad argument.  Tatis missed considerable time nearly every season since Fort Wayne.  Did that mean we were desperate for a backup?  Compare that to Hosmer who hasnt been injured since 2014, guess that means theres no way Hosmer gets put on the IL twice in a short season...  Point is most teams would kill to have two aces on their team, not to mention the #1 pitching prospect in baseball AND 4-5 other TOP 100 pitchers MLB ready, oh and a quality #3.  Injuries happen, but the Padres already have a ton of depth.  They just need to actually let their depth start.
   Could you imagine next year if after Lamet starts Game 1, Patino comes in for 2 innings, then starts again in Game 3.  This time he turns it over to Gore, who destroys the Dodgers for the middle innings.  No reason why the Padres cant do that.
2. Padres can have the + defensive person in Aztec for Life Greg Allen.  What made the Dodgers more dangerous as Fenn mentioned was the quality of their backups.  The Padres did ok with Moreland but we didnt really have that strong RHH (a Renfroe type).  If you want the quality, yes you need to pay them.  Pollock was an All-Star with Arizona, signed 4 yr/55 mil deal to be a platoon player with LA.  Yes, players want to start, but they also want to win and want to get paid.  A player will usually take less and/or play less to be on a championship team.
3. How much (if any) $ will the Padres have to spend.  Even assuming they can stick to $150 mil.  They are at 93 mil already with guarenteed contracts.  Not counting salaries for arb players Pham ($8 mil), Davies ($6 mil), Clevinger ($7 mil), Lamet ($4 mil), Strahm ($2 mil), then ALtivilla and Pagan will both be Arb 1 so another 3 mil ish.  Thats $125 mil.  Not counting the other 20 players who are pre arb (another 10 mil).  So at least $135 mil and that with SMALL increases in salaries for the arbitration players assuming a pandemic.  So at most we would have 15 to spend, maybe closer to $10 mil.
4. So if we only have $10 mil... who do you spend it on?  Resigning Yates/Rosenthal?  Profar?  Another bat?  Another starter?  Thats really only enough for 1 player, maybe 2 if one comes cheap.  SO the idea of getting another ace or resigning Profar and Rosenthal and a starter, isnt feasible.

Quote from fenn68 on October 10, 2020, 11:16 am

Padres made a good run with the key elements returning ... Preller is Preller and likely prone to make impactful moves .... Padres still have a strong farm system of prospects ... Preller has always said building a strong farm system has value in making key trades .... so with maybe "limited" incremental salary room ($10-15MM) and highly motivated to even be better in 2021 .... could an impactful trade be the route Preller takes?

That would not necessarily disrupt adding some veteran journeyman back-up for the bench (low cost).

If another team .... maybe non-contender with payroll concerns ... is willing to move a quality starting asset (OF type) with multi-year control Preller might go that way ... Pham to DH in 2021 and FA after 2021 without a clear replacement.

======

Saw a note from Casssavell that Preller would be looking to improve the bullpen ... given the number of bodies, out of option bodies, bit surprised that was at the forefront of improvement targets.

Quote from Ben Davey on October 10, 2020, 1:51 pm

I think the note was because both Rosenthal and Yates are FA.

We need a healthy Pagan and Adams to take a step forward.  If we dont resign any of them that still gives us a great 7,8,9 with Adams/Pagan/Pom.
Stammen is still under contract (ugh bad move to give him $8 mil)
Altavilla can be amazing IF he can locate.
Hill and Strahm are still under contract
Guerra is a nontender candidate but another that can be dominant IF he can locate
Padres traded for Williams
Will Jose Castillo ever be healthy?
So thats 10 relievers without including any FA or any long men like Perdomo, Patino, Baez

Quote from fenn68 on October 10, 2020, 3:17 pm

Baring any winter moves .... should be quite a competitive ST for RHRP ... expecting only 5 to make the 26 man roster (5 starters / 3 LHRP):

Figure Pagan, Adams (out of options), Johnson (under contract no option) to be the first three. So, really only 2 slots for:

Altavilla, Stammen, Williams, Guerra ... none can be optioned.

Then, although can be optioned, pushing are Perdomo, Bednar, Baez .... and if the Padres go with the “best” out of ST .. Patino may also be pushing.

Thinking Stammen may end up the Kinsler route and get DFA/retire take an organization job. (New dead money but better than him in the pen?)

Add another RP to the mix .... better be “quality” over “quantity”.

Quote from JasonE135 on October 10, 2020, 7:59 pm

The Padres were expected to have a great bullpen and if fact they did, despite injuries. I don't see them trying to improve it, just maintain it. If they can re-sign either Rosenthal or Yates they are golden. I mean how many teams can use 9 different pitchers in 1 game and still win? That means you have an abundance of quality arms in the BP. All we need is the lockdown type of closer they have had the last few years. We already have 2 and only 1 needs to be re-signed.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 11, 2020, 10:12 am

I can see Preller going the Profar type of route again. Somebody who has underperformed expectations who Preller feels his coaches can unlock. Maybe next time he can get even luckier and find a guy with more control.

This description fits Jorge Mateo to a T.   He's not going to have a .350 OBP, but he's awfully athletic & versatile, and RH.

I always felt acquiring him this season filled 2 needs:  1) PR/speed for a 60-game season, 2) "Profar insurance" for 2021+.

If Profar moves on, Mateo seems like a lock to be back.

Even if Profar does return, Mateo still likely in ST competing with Greg Allen for last bench spot, or to build a little value to spin him back off in a trade for a prospect (reverse of what we did to acquire him)

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 11, 2020, 10:33 am

Re-stating the Bullpen another way:

Out of options:  Pom (L), Pagan, Adams, Johnson, Stammen, Altavilla, Williams, Guerra.  That's an entire bullpen.

Options remaining:  Strahm, Hill, Castillo, Perdomo (?), Bednar.  1st 3 all LH, but Strahm not going down.  Not sure if Perdomo still has 1 option or not.  Way more valuable if he does, but still might be a non-tender.

On the face of it AT FULL HEALTH something has to give.

2020:  Wingenter, Castillo, then Yates down for the (short) year.  Leads to trades of two top 20 prospects to bring in Hill, then Rosenthal

2019:  Castillo & also Miguel Diaz out; much worse depth in general leads to poor return, relatively expensive FA signings of Adam Warren & Aaron Loup who both also get injured & miss most of the season.

2021:  Padres are in great position with lots of depth & directions they can go with overall roster building.   Multi-year controllable MLB experienced RP have value in offseason all the way through ST.    At a minimum can "recover" some prospects IF at full health at END of ST.  Or can trade to re-deploy $ to a closer or another position (think Stammen + asset or Strahm).  Even the Taylor Williams trade which seems right now like a "prospect giveaway" since he had only 1 IP & was "just" depth was a clever deal; if he's the odd man out in ST, his experience will bring >/= in trade at that time to what we gave up this deadline, b/c the team trading for him will have a greater need than we did.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 11, 2020, 12:02 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 11, 2020, 10:12 am

I can see Preller going the Profar type of route again. Somebody who has underperformed expectations who Preller feels his coaches can unlock. Maybe next time he can get even luckier and find a guy with more control.

This description fits Jorge Mateo to a T.   He's not going to have a .350 OBP, but he's awfully athletic & versatile, and RH.

I always felt acquiring him this season filled 2 needs:  1) PR/speed for a 60-game season, 2) "Profar insurance" for 2021+.

If Profar moves on, Mateo seems like a lock to be back.

Even if Profar does return, Mateo still likely in ST competing with Greg Allen for last bench spot, or to build a little value to spin him back off in a trade for a prospect (reverse of what we did to acquire him)

Do expect Mateo to make the roster ... as the 13th position player. Combine the speed for PR with the ability to play both the OF and INF should get him the spot. Given the starting 8 are likely to be in almost every day and not needing a PH ... Mateo's role fits more emergency in the field in either the OF/INF allowing the Padres to be more specific with the rest of the bench. I have no expectation that Mateo will hit enough to be a factor for the offense.

As it is even if they do re-sign Profar ... see Profar, Moreland, Allen, Mejia, and Mateo in slots #9-13. Garcia the odd man out. Without Profar, even more likely as the real INF back-up option for the next few years.