Quote from Ben Davey on October 5, 2020, 2:38 pm

As far as "stuff" is concerned Richards is MAYBE 3rd on the Padres alone.  I think you can make the argument that Morejon and Patino are both better by pure "stuff."  So not sure where you got Richards as top 10 in all of baseball.

The argument for salary incentives might have been a reason to move him to the pen the last week (a super shady argument as it would put a black mark on the Padres), but there is absolutely no reason why the Padres wouldnt put him back in the rotation after the injuries to Lamet and Clev.

As far as innings are concerned, there is an argument that 28 might be the roster next year too due to pretty much every starter not being able to throw 200 innings next year.  This was brought up after the Astros were doing essentially a piggyback rotation in the playoffs.  That last game against Min, they had Urquidy go 4.1 IP, he ran into trouble in 5th, and a reliever came in to clean up.  Then in the 6th brought in the piggyback Javier, who went 3 IP before giving way to the closer.  The podcast I was listening to (I believe Baseball America), they were saying that this might be a strategy you see a lot in 2021.  Where they let the vets go a full start (6-7 IP), then the young pitchers all piggyback.  Then they could alternate who starts, so at the end of the year they are all about 110-130 IP.

So rotation could be
Lamet
Morejon/Patino
Clevinger
Gore/Baez (or Paddack)
Davies

In each case you have a L/R combo, with different stuff.  So 7 starters for 5 spots, but idea being in those games only have 1-2 relievers going.  Meaning a 7 man bullpen of Adams, Pagan, Strahm, Pom, Johnson, Closer(?), Hill (not counting Stammen, Altivilla, Perdomo, Guerra, Bednar, or Williams)

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2020, 2:44 pm

Another factor that may keep the FA money limited by all teams is that they will not know if (or what percentage of) fans will be in the stands in 2021 ... a prime source of team revenue.

Combined the lost revenue in 2020 ... the risk of sub-optimal revenue in 2021 ... the risk of strike in 2022 (necessitating the development of a "strike fund") ... and spending this winter is going to be hard to justify by most of the teams. Bigger supply of FA combined with lower demand at premium prices ... signing prices go down if normal economics are in play.

Should also add the unknown about the changes that may be the result of the new CBA ... could impact contracts from either the team or player perspective. Uncertainty generally creates some conservatism. In this case, maybe a greater case for one year deals ... and without options.

All is set-up for FA being a lot different than in the past.

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2020, 3:02 pm

Quote from Ben Davey on October 5, 2020, 2:38 pm

As far as "stuff" is concerned Richards is MAYBE 3rd on the Padres alone.  I think you can make the argument that Morejon and Patino are both better by pure "stuff."  So not sure where you got Richards as top 10 in all of baseball.

The argument for salary incentives might have been a reason to move him to the pen the last week (a super shady argument as it would put a black mark on the Padres), but there is absolutely no reason why the Padres wouldnt put him back in the rotation after the injuries to Lamet and Clev.

As far as innings are concerned, there is an argument that 28 might be the roster next year too due to pretty much every starter not being able to throw 200 innings next year.  This was brought up after the Astros were doing essentially a piggyback rotation in the playoffs.  That last game against Min, they had Urquidy go 4.1 IP, he ran into trouble in 5th, and a reliever came in to clean up.  Then in the 6th brought in the piggyback Javier, who went 3 IP before giving way to the closer.  The podcast I was listening to (I believe Baseball America), they were saying that this might be a strategy you see a lot in 2021.  Where they let the vets go a full start (6-7 IP), then the young pitchers all piggyback.  Then they could alternate who starts, so at the end of the year they are all about 110-130 IP.

So rotation could be
Lamet
Morejon/Patino
Clevinger
Gore/Baez (or Paddack)
Davies

In each case you have a L/R combo, with different stuff.  So 7 starters for 5 spots, but idea being in those games only have 1-2 relievers going.  Meaning a 7 man bullpen of Adams, Pagan, Strahm, Pom, Johnson, Closer(?), Hill (not counting Stammen, Altivilla, Perdomo, Guerra, Bednar, or Williams)

Just as the DH ... a 28 man roster for 2021 will have to be negotiated at some point. Yet roster decisions have to be made starting 5 days after the World Series and the first week of December.

Then add that the owners may not want to pay two extra ML salaries in a tight money scenario.

DH, roster size, expanded playoffs, plus a ton of other issues will be part of the CBA negotiations after 2021. Would either side potentially give up some negotiating chips in 2021? Given that the negotiations for 2020 did not go smoothly ... no reason to think anything has changed that. So, even if they negotiate that may last well into ST ... again making roster decision difficult (adds / deletes).

Good chance we see in the NL: NO DH; 26 man roster (13 pitchers / 13 position); and the return to a 5 team NL playoff structure with a single game wild card game. It is that until it isn't. As a GM in November-January how to you make roster decisions?

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 5, 2020, 4:57 pm

Ben, the issue I've always had with piggyback concepts is you're committing 2 SP to 1 same day, automatically subtracting from pen not only that day, but at least 1-2 days before.  Yes, the reduced workload that SHOULD happen for a smaller pen could help the entire pen on that day, but Pads sure have loaded up for an 8-man pen with so many guys out of options.

I've thought for a while that the Padres line up perfectly for a "modified" 6-man rotation in 2021, which is even more true now with Clevinger & his/Lamet's balky R arm/elbows.  For this to work, really need:  A) a clear #1 (& ideally #2, which we now do), and a lot of good young SP with options where there may not be a big dropoff between #5, #6 or even #7.  Check.  The Pads biggest issue for a strategy like this might be an inflexible bullpen with too many guys having no options.

You have the #1 go on regular rest every 5th day.  #2-6 get an extra day of rest, with the P following #1 each time through rotation getting 2 extra days of rest each time through.  Pattern:  1,2,3,4,5,1,6,2,3,4,1,5,6,2,3,1,4,5,6,2,1,3,4,5,6,1,2,3,4,5,1,6.. etc.

With Pads, I would alternate Lamet & Clev periodically as the "#1".  I feel it's drastically overlooked in MLB how much more effective some SP (think Lamet) are on 5 days rest vs. four.  I would argue that a team with as much SP depth as Pads might be better off getting "only" 27 starts from their #2 SP than 32 (5 less over the year) in exchange for #2 - #6 all always going on +1 or +2 'extra' day rest.  Sticking strictly to this, the #1 would make 33 starts, the #2-6 would make 25-26 each.   Could "split" #1 so Lamet & Clev make 29 starts each.  Yes, they're not starting 3-4 games each.  BUT would they have actually made those going 4 days rest all season long?  And would their & other P's effectiveness increase enough with the extra rest to offset it.

The beauty of THIS system is; if any SP has a bad, short outing, the guy who was scheduled to start the next day can always come in to the game as long RP b/c he is on regular rest (except the #1)... there's "always" a piggyback option.  Then the SP the next day would "just" be on regular rest instead of +1 extra day.   With Morejon, Patino, Gore, & Baez plus Lucchesi, it sure seems like Pads could effectively "roll" SP's up/down from AAA to manage IP & cover inevitable "blowups" over course of 162 games.

Most teams have too big a dropoff at 4 or 5 (us this year) let alone 6 for this to work.  Pads are 1 of a handful of teams who look like not only do they have the personnel to employ it, but as you pointed out, they may HAVE to, b/c  our #1 -5 simply can't all go 175-200 IP PLUS playoffs?

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 8, 2020, 5:50 pm

I have my first focus on the position player need for enhancement. Considering without any adds ... the following would be the projected roster with their 2019-20 wRC+ vs RHP / LHP:

RHP/LHP

124 / 107   C ... Nola

112 /   60.  1B ... Hosmer (L)

156 /   58.  2B ... Cronenworth (L)

142 / 172    SS ... Tatis

104 / 170.  3B ... Machado

95 / 160.  LF ... Pham

112 /   98.  CF ... Grisham (L)

102 / 149.  RF ... Myers

Bench:

86 /   67.  C ... Mejia (#)

131  /  66.  DH ... Moreland (L)

97 /   35    2B ... Garcia (L)

- 19 /   39.   UTL ... Matos

90 /   -5.    OF ... Allen (#)

I see a major issue vs LHP with two starters who struggle and an entire bench that struggles ... IF there is a DH then three of the nine in the batting order create a hole without any bench support. Hitting RHP not an issue.

Maybe other options but a re-signing of Profar who was 87 / 118 over the past two years makes a lot of sense. Not only creating a staring upgrade vs. LHP but a productive bat if any of the starters get nicked up.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 8, 2020, 7:07 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2020, 10:50 am

I am comfortable with going into the season with Lamet, Clevinger, Davies, Paddack, Morejon with Gore, Patino, and Baez pushing them. Plus Weathers and Lawson may be in contention by 2022. Not many teams have that much quality SP eight deep. At some point have to get the prospects ML development time ... minors will only take them so far.

Spend where there is a greater need on the roster.

How comfortable are you if Lamet and Clevinger end  up on the IL after 50 games?

I know you can’t predict injury but neither has proven healthy enough for 30 starts in a season

Quote from fenn68 on October 8, 2020, 8:09 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 8, 2020, 7:07 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2020, 10:50 am

I am comfortable with going into the season with Lamet, Clevinger, Davies, Paddack, Morejon with Gore, Patino, and Baez pushing them. Plus Weathers and Lawson may be in contention by 2022. Not many teams have that much quality SP eight deep. At some point have to get the prospects ML development time ... minors will only take them so far.

Spend where there is a greater need on the roster.

How comfortable are you if Lamet and Clevinger end  up on the IL after 50 games?

I know you can’t predict injury but neither has proven healthy enough for 30 starts in a season

Not comfortable with any key player getting injured be it Lamet / Clevinger or Tatis / Machado / Grisham et. al.

At least with the pitching they have some legit upper level prospects to step in. With position players they don't even have a ML quality bench and less in AAA/AA.

Over a 162 game set ... I would really wan a better back-up middle INF and back-up CF ... RHH preferred ... who can be a legit PH/DH option vs LHP and play a legit starting role when called upon. Legit cost money .... money will be the issue.

Quote from JasonE135 on October 9, 2020, 1:47 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 8, 2020, 8:09 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 8, 2020, 7:07 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2020, 10:50 am

I am comfortable with going into the season with Lamet, Clevinger, Davies, Paddack, Morejon with Gore, Patino, and Baez pushing them. Plus Weathers and Lawson may be in contention by 2022. Not many teams have that much quality SP eight deep. At some point have to get the prospects ML development time ... minors will only take them so far.

Spend where there is a greater need on the roster.

How comfortable are you if Lamet and Clevinger end  up on the IL after 50 games?

I know you can’t predict injury but neither has proven healthy enough for 30 starts in a season

Not comfortable with any key player getting injured be it Lamet / Clevinger or Tatis / Machado / Grisham et. al.

At least with the pitching they have some legit upper level prospects to step in. With position players they don't even have a ML quality bench and less in AAA/AA.

Over a 162 game set ... I would really wan a better back-up middle INF and back-up CF ... RHH preferred ... who can be a legit PH/DH option vs LHP and play a legit starting role when called upon. Legit cost money .... money will be the issue.

If all the Padres are shopping for are backups they should absolutely have the money. The problem is that people seem to expect starting quality backups. Many, many teams are still searching for a quality starting CF. A guy who can play decent defense at all 3 OF positions and hits LHP well? That would be a guy like Lagares. He gives you plus defense. Of course if he could hit well he would be a starter for some team. Backups are backups for a reason, because they have at least one weakness to their game. Usually their bat.

Quote from fenn68 on October 9, 2020, 3:04 pm

Yeh, should not be looking for a “starter” quality to be a reserve. However, should be looking for the qualities that make a good reserve to fit the needs of the roster .... and better reserves than the current crop.

On one side some aging veterans might fit the RHH role (Todd Frazier types who have already lost their starting roles) and an emergency field spot. Probably incapable of playing a full season on defense now but reserve role ... maybe. Clearly did not work with Dozier or Kinsler ... but better options may be there.

On the other side ... would not be surprised Preller trades for a young player to serve as the 4th OF in 2021 and then replace Pham in 2022 (be it in LF or CF with Grisham to LF). Doesn’t have to be a “gold glove” CF ... just competent with a future.

Improving the bench over Mateo, Garcia, and Allen should not be too hard ... but is needed for a successful 2021 and if there is a DH ... a RHH complement to Moreland is a must.

If they want some competent .... need to spend some bucks.