Quote from Ben Davey on October 5, 2020, 9:54 am

I would not advocate resigning Richards, and with this whole bullpen/rotation fiasco I think he wants out.  (Really, you have a former ace who could give you 5+ innings but instead you chose another bullpen day)

It doesnt have to be Castro, but sign a 3rd, defensive first catcher.  If you think Nola catches 110, Mejia catches 20, the "Castro" catches 30.  Rationale is Mejia is your main DH and is told to just hit

I have no problem with Moreland but he doesnt have a spot on the team especially not if the Padres resign Profar.  If they do you have Profar in LF, Pham at DH and already searching for AB for Mejia, so maybe Moreland gets the occasional start against tough RHP.  If the Padres dont resign Profar you can see him splitting DH with Mejia, but even then baring an injury dont see him playing more than 50 games.

If this was a normal offseason I'd agree that Rosenthal might get 12 mil on amulti-year deal.  But three big factors.  1) The FA market will probably be non-existent until teams know that they can have fans in the stands  2) Rosenthal was a NRI, after a 13.50 ERA and 26 BB in 15.1 IP in 2019.  Those that listen to MTPGA, Craig fears this A LOT with him just losing control.  3) Already over 30.

There have been a lot of talks of FA players signing cheap one year deals, then hoping COVID is gone and the world returns after next offseason to try and get the big contract then.  Not sure if Profar/Rosenthal will attempt for that or if they go on to green pastures.

BTW I want NO part in Kirby.  Great dude, but is already 33 and missed all year with injury.  If he is given anything more than maybe $2 mil its a bad deal.

Quote from Ben Davey on October 5, 2020, 10:05 am

Richards will not get 6 mil+ from any team.  The fact that he lost his spot in a rotation that literally doesnt have starters is not a good bargaining chip for him.  I like him and he can be amazing when he can find home plate.

I just dont see the need to bring in a starter

Clevinger, Lamet, Davies (all locks)

MOREJON deserves a spot in the rotation.  Dang he has been good.

Paddack probably still a lock.

Oh look, thats five without getting into three top 100 prospects in Baez (remember him), Patino, and Gore.  We're up to 8. I wouldnt mind signing a vet FA SP to a small base with large incentives.  BTW there are a lot of quality (not ace level but solid) SP on the FA market but most have huge ??  Someone like Robbie Ray might be a better add. Finished top 5 in CY voting a few years ago, but completely lost home plate this year

Quote from LynchMob on October 5, 2020, 10:06 am

It took me a while to figure out what MTPGA means ...

https://www.podplay.com/en/podcast/241489/make-the-padres-great-again

 

re: BenD sez ... Someone like Robbie Ray might be a better add ... I say: YES!

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 5, 2020, 10:28 am

Quote from Ben Davey on October 5, 2020, 10:05 am

Richards will not get 6 mil+ from any team.  The fact that he lost his spot in a rotation that literally doesnt have starters is not a good bargaining chip for him.  I like him and he can be amazing when he can find home plate.

I just dont see the need to bring in a starter

Clevinger, Lamet, Davies (all locks)

MOREJON deserves a spot in the rotation.  Dang he has been good.

Paddack probably still a lock.

Oh look, thats five without getting into three top 100 prospects in Baez (remember him), Patino, and Gore.  We're up to 8. I wouldnt mind signing a vet FA SP to a small base with large incentives.  BTW there are a lot of quality (not ace level but solid) SP on the FA market but most have huge ??  Someone like Robbie Ray might be a better add. Finished top 5 in CY voting a few years ago, but completely lost home plate this year

.... assuming perfect health & performance.  #1 & #2 arm issues in 60 games/10 starts.  162 & 30 with all the Sliders they throw?  Davies is a nice, steady lock SP... IMO he regresses in a long season as teams esp NL West see him more often.  Does have advantage that NL East & Central did not see him in 2020, but sure didn't help vs Cards.

Agree Morejon's ability jumps off the TV screen, but his durability is a MAJOR issue.  The MLB experience has definitely helped him grow as a P; he's obviously an MLB P.  But not working as a true SP really brings into question whether he'll ever be able to.  He's still young, but his development curve IP/year has NOT gone how the Padres org has hoped; maxing out at 65 IP so far.  Same even more true for Patino in 2020.  Not sure if he was helped or hindered more by this season.

I would MUCH rather see Paddack compete than be "annointed" like he was this season.   He needs to eat some humble pie, stop being stubborn & defensive, and admit he has a lot to learn & work on & ESPECIALLY that he needs help / input from others (besides his brother) to do so.  I think he will do these things & grow into a good reliable #4, MAYBE #3 SP.  His stuff precludes him from being a #1-#2.

The reason I think Richards (or another SP) should return is simple:  All the elite prospects "lost" a year of development in the Minors starting & working on their 3rd/4th offerings, moving the ball around, holding runners on base, building up their arms, grinding through long season/hot summer, etc, etc...  Basically need to hit "re-set" button so they prospects get the experience in 2021 they should have in 2020.   Morejon & Patino especially.

Quote from Ben Davey on October 5, 2020, 10:37 am

I get your point, but one of the reasons Morejon didnt progress was because we already had a ton of pitchers in front of him.  He obvious leap frogged Lucchessi and Quantril is gone.

The Padres also seem to be using a very Dave Cameron way of pitching.  Most of the young guys are getting one time through the order no matter how dominant they are.  Padres are really doing the L/R splits to perfection this year.  Not sure if that continues next year.  At some point you have to allow Morejon to go 5+ innings right?

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2020, 10:42 am

With only about $15MM to deploy (max) ... and with all the SP/RP ML ready ... would not use that money for any pitching and instead focus on positional depth.

Give about zero chance in this (or probably any) environment can move an undesired contract ... so not going to move Stammen's contact or Myers' or Hosmer's or Machado's. Have to work off the assumption that what they have is what they will have in contracts as a base. Also, given the DH unknown and what may be an abundance of DH only types on the market ... trading Moreland (and his $3MM contract) is unlikely this winter. Boston got "lucky" that he was hot and fit a trade deadline need. GMs will view him differently in the winter.

With not knowing if a DH exists in 2021 and the end of 2021 departure of Pham (and Moreland if he survives):

#1 priority should be Profar ... even if not at the Sept performance level (likely not) ... he can cover INF/OF and get a lot of playing time. Avoid the use of Mateo, Allen, Garcia, Almonte (if they survive) ... none I would want starting even part time. He fills a need in 2021 and a bigger need in 2022-23 (as Myers departs).

#2 priority is another upgrade as a bench option that can either play legit CF (RHH) or 2B (INF) plus provide some offensive potential. Again, the FA market may have a veteran or two (especially after options are declined or non-tenders occur) that could be had on a low cost one year deal. Given this team, avoid LHH who cannot hit LHP.

Those moves should stabilize the depth to cover injuries and "rests" over a 162 game schedule.

#3 priority would be a re sign of Yates IF it is on a lower cost (incentive based) one year deal.

Then beyond the signings ... have to work hard to trade a number of the "out of option" RP and maybe an "excess" (if such a thing) pitcher to see if they can acquire a near term "prospect" that may step in in 2022-23 to fill the coming vacancies in the INF/OF reserves (doubt anyone good enough to get a legit starter in return). IF Preller can work this sooner than later ... maybe avoids Priority #2 if the return is already ML ready.

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2020, 10:50 am

I am comfortable with going into the season with Lamet, Clevinger, Davies, Paddack, Morejon with Gore, Patino, and Baez pushing them. Plus Weathers and Lawson may be in contention by 2022. Not many teams have that much quality SP eight deep. At some point have to get the prospects ML development time ... minors will only take them so far.

Spend where there is a greater need on the roster.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 5, 2020, 11:00 am

Ben, you bring up a great point about Garrett Richards.  Padres had to make a move with about 8-10 games left, weird schedule with many off days, & locked into playoff spot.  He WAS the only logical choice... but I & everyone else I'm sure was stunned he didn't start Game 3.  My jaw will hit the floor if he doesn't make a start in this series (or work as a LONG RP/piggyback SP) vs LAD, regardless of Lamet & Clevinger's availability.

I wanted to point something out.  Richards had a "Games Started" incentive of 250K/start for Starts 21-30 in a full season.   My understanding was that all incentives this year were prorated for BOTH the $ AND the triggers to reach it.  For an RP like Johnson & Stammen it made sense that they triggered the last of their prorated "appearances" near the end of a full (healthy) 60 game season; their incentives were smaller (100K for hitting 5 game increments >/= 30 & 40 games respectively), and they

But it didn't really make sense for a SP to receive incentives for making 8-12 starts, since the intent of the incentive is a reward for health/durability over the course of a FULL season.  If my math is right, Richards actually received 250K TIMES 3!  (then prorated @ 37%) for his 9th & 10th starts.... this worked out to about 275K incentive for each of those starts; MORE real $ than he would have received making his 30th start in a full season!  Not his "fault" of course, but it may have rubbed Pads ownership the wrong way, since Richards had 2 atrociously bad starts back to back mid-season   that actually had the effect of accelerating when he made his NEXT start; which ultimately moved up him receiving his incentives.   He did miss out on 750K prorated down by not getting to 12 starts.

He/Pads may not care too much about that, but the National announcers ESPN were saying that if you asked every pitching coach in MLB about Garrett Richards, that there would be unanimous consent that his stuff is "Top 5-Top 10" in all of MLB!  I think you're right that Richards simply wouldn't trust Padres on another "Games started incentive deal" with all the SP prospects getting so close.  He may choose to rebuild his value on another team where he's more of a mortal lock to stay in the rotation... and it's pretty unanimous that when he's "on" he's got top of rotation stuff to work with.

... which is too bad if you're right about him getting less $ (not prorated) in 2021 than in 2020.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 5, 2020, 11:08 am

Quote from Ben Davey on October 5, 2020, 10:37 am

I get your point, but one of the reasons Morejon didnt progress was because we already had a ton of pitchers in front of him.  He obvious leap frogged Lucchessi and Quantril is gone.

The Padres also seem to be using a very Dave Cameron way of pitching.  Most of the young guys are getting one time through the order no matter how dominant they are.  Padres are really doing the L/R splits to perfection this year.  Not sure if that continues next year.  At some point you have to allow Morejon to go 5+ innings right?

Exactly.  I'd prefer Morejon to stretch out in Minors, even if it's just "finishing school" of a month in AA.  The short starts by design from the 5th SP can NOT work in a full 162 game season; would just nuke the bullpen.

Baez has hit 115 IP (3 years ago), Gore has hit 100 IP,  Patino 95 IP, Morejon's max has been 65.   Projecting any of them to take Richards' spot in rotation & throw 160-180 IP just isn't realistic.