Quote from WindsorUK on October 4, 2020, 2:17 pm

At this point, the only way Moreland is here next year is if he somehow carries the O during one of the next few series.

Take any money they were throwing at him and give it to Profar.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 4, 2020, 2:32 pm

Pitching pitching and more pitching.

We have the offense now and for the next 2-3 seasons.

Sign Rosenthal.

Then,depending on Gore and Patiño for the rotation....sign Richards or another “good” Starter.

I’d love to keep Profar.....but the difference between Profar and Oña,or another LF option, isn’t a important as a top Closer or a solid #3-4 Starter.
I’d rather they take every penny they can scrape together and sign Bauer than sign Profar and Yates.

if there was any way we could sign Bauer Nd Rosenthal that would be all I’d want for the offseason and be ecstatic.

We would be a certain playoff team Nd would push the Dodgers for the Division.

Bauer/Lamet/Clevinger/Davies/Paddack would be a playoff rotation without even mentioning Gore and Patiño.

If Bauer stays to his word he will only be a one year commitment.....DO IT!

 

 

 

Quote from Ben Davey on October 4, 2020, 2:49 pm

Mejia's offensive numbers against both LHP and RHP are amazing, and shows he could be the everyday DH.

I wouldnt mind if the Padres addressed offense by doing the following...
Decline options on Moreland and Garcia
Resign Castro (1 mil?)
Trade Campusano to the Braves for Drew Waters (Braves have a LOADED OF)
I'd like to resign Profar if the price is right, but priority #1 should be to resign Rosenthal.

If Profar resigns he takes over that Zobrist role of 2B/LF/DH (maybe an occasional RF).  Mejia becomes your starting DH, no catching outside of once a month.  If Pham is healthy his offense will be enough to keep him in the lineup everyday as a LF or DH.  Profar takes over LF if Pham gets injured or Cro has a sophomore slump.

Waters is the heir apparent to Pham, was the Double-A batting champ in 2019, 20-20 guy also only 20.  Does need to work on K, but he can start in Triple-A, destroy things then come up if theres an injury to Grisham/Myers or in 2022.

Pitching: I think you have to just try and resign Rosenthal, and see if Yates would be willing to do a 1 year cheap deal (get back on track then hit free agency when teams might be more willing to spend).  Morejon/Patino/ or Gore slot into rotation.  You already have your entire pen resigned.  Easy

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2020, 6:00 pm

As of now no one knows if there will be a DH in 2021 ... likely to be negotiated at some point in the winter (could go either way if it is a chip in the bigger CBA negotiation after 2021).

With that in mind, 5 days after the end of the World Series teams have to exercise their options on players or they become FA.

Enter Moreland .... basically only a LHH DH at $3MM (vs. $0.5MM buyout) ... Preller has to make the call before knowing if the DH is in play. Seems that $2.5MM in 2021 for a PH if no DH (and that could be the end game) is a poor risk in a cash squeeze.

With what should be a FA market filled with "fringe" players ... probably could get a decent one (if needed) for less than the $2.5MM or that money could be used to up the ante to sign one of the Padres' own FA.

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Also, at some point in early December, the deadline for tendering contracts. Non-tenders become FA immediately. The only non-tender I could see is Garcia but if Moreland is gone probably not and he is only about $1.5MM plus could get cut in ST and be owed only a fraction. All the other candidates are pretty assured of getting a contract offers.

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Lastly a good chance the in-person winter meetings (scheduled for Dallas) will be cancelled. That is a venue that builds trades and where agents pursue homes for their FA. Wonder how that impact movement in the FA market and the development of trades?

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 4, 2020, 9:38 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2020, 12:33 pm

Nice logic on all ... now how to balance all that with maybe $15MM to commit and the players/agents seeking money and playing opportunities?

Well... what I'm getting really nervous about is Preller/ownership deciding "we can have Wil Myers... or we can sign 3-4  FA"... but not both.   HOPE they don't do that & wrongly think they can just magically fill Wil's shoes with a cheap FA.

Let's say...   1.25 MM Castro

7 MM Profar (1st year)

5 MM Yates (3 MM + 2 MM buyout vs. big raise in 2022) + incentives max out @ maybe 7? 8? MM

Could theoretically afford those guys.

It's Richards we probably can't without something "giving".  Think best case might be his same deal as this year: 8.5 MM + incentives up to 11 MM.   So the $ might be there to sign 2 of 3 of:  Profar / Yates / Richards.

I actually haven't been impressed with Castro's defense; too many "glove stabs" at balls in the dirt & misses them vs getting down & blocking them.  Comes across more as laziness/bad form than lack of ability.   BUT well respected veteran stopgap LH (supposedly) glove first guy who probably has & could continue to, help Nola, while allowing Pads to either run with 3 C or (better) give Mejia & Campusano full time reps at C in AAA/AA & let their play determine who rises up.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 5, 2020, 7:56 am

Wow.  No love for Moreland and his 2.5 MM (+0.5) Salary!   I just don't believe Preller traded two top 30 prospects for a month + playoffs of Moreland to eat another 500K and have.... nothing.

Remember, have to make the decision on Moreland well before any FA sign; particularly on a "re-up" where Profar wouldn't even be testing the open market.   Yes, IF no DH in NL next year, then Moreland might not be a good fit.  But there might be.

Solution?  Pick up Moreland's option.  2.5 MM decision.  If no DH in NL & feel like he limits bench too much as it gets "constructed" in offseason:  TRADE him to an AL team.  Should be able to get back a top 3o prospect (especially relative to 20-30 in our system now), even if we have to eat some $ beyond the 0.5MM we were committed to anyway.

Garcia just a different situation.  Widely respected "pro's pro"; A+ teammate/makeup.  Local guy.  NO power.  Patient hitter/good eye.  But last year of Arb he's around 2 MM.  Unlike Moreland, he's just not tradeable.  Yes, could let him go early in ST for I think 1/6 of Salary (333K).  But although SOME $ guaranteed a benefit to GG, it's not the best "treatment" in the world for a guy like that to miss all of the offseason as teams build rosters, THEN become a FA.  Would probably land on his feet, and I admit I hadn't thought about him being on a "true" NL team; is a much better fit in that scenario as a PH, not a DH.  But he's still not as good as Moreland even in that role, and would only cost about 1 MM less.   Even in "NL" on a bench that needs help, I find it hard to not non-tender him... both the 1/6 salary and the full arb salary are about 2/3 the cost of: buying out or keeping Moreland.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2020, 8:04 am

Can't see Myers going anywhere with his contract ... to move him the Padres will have to eat money and likely take a costly contract back ... net very little (if any) savings to redeploy. Plus realistically no ML quality replacement for Myers in house .. not even the pre-2020 Myers. Think Padres have to strategize around deploying $15MM =/-.

Not sure what to make of Castro ... not looking good in his time with SD but his history has him as a plus defender and with some ability to hit RHP (he is like Garcia / Moreland with little ability to hit LHP). Even in this financial market ... a lot of need for catchers ... so Castro at 33 probably can do better than $1.5MM. Don't really want another hitter in the mix that is useless vs. LHP. Keeping in mind that Nola over the course of 162 game schedule will likely start a max of 110-120 games (pretty much the norm these days for catchers). I would go with Mejia and save the money at back-up catcher.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on October 5, 2020, 8:32 am

Don't see any changes in the starting 8 position players in 2021 with Nola the #1 catcher.  For me, it's Mejia over Castro and Moreland over Garcia given their respective costs and projected production.  That potentially saves us around 5M if based on 2020 salaries going forward that could be used to help sign Profar and/or Yates.  Profar had a great September but started very slowly.  Still thinks he re-signs a short (2-year contract) so he gets to FA again before he hits 30.  If he has a good two years, he could make a lot more money up to his mid-30's with his body type and versatility; Padres could also use him as a trade chip if players in the minors develop as expected.  My guess is about 7.5 million per year.  Yates should be relatively cheap but I'd still like to roll the dice on Rosenthal given the slippage of Pagan and Stammen and the uncertainties that surround the quality of consistent pitching you could get from Guerra, Altavilla, Williams, Perdomo, Bednar, Wingenter, Hill, etc.  When healthy and on their game, bullpen looks very good but you can say that about almost every bullpen at some point every year.  I think if we start with Pomeranz, Johnson, Adams, Strahm, Yates and Rosenthal with a healthy Castillo thrown in, there is strong possibility that there will be sufficient depth for the 2021 season even if you have to trade some of these relievers who have no options left.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 5, 2020, 9:04 am

I think Fenn's estimate of 15 MM max to spend is pretty accurate.

Rosenthal is going to be like 12 MM AAV x 3-4 yrs or something like that.  Hope I'm wrong, but think re-upping him is wishful thinking.

Padres in last 12 months have added these RP's with long control (includes 2020 season.  In-season trades 2020 = "+"):  Pomeranz (4 yrs), Pagan (4 yrs), Austin Adams (4+ yrs), Pierce Johnson (2-3 yrs, then some Arb control?), Stammen (2-3 yrs), Tim Hill (5 yrs), Dan Altavilla (3+ yrs), Taylor Williams (4+ yrs).

Already had:  Strahm (3 yrs), Jose Castillo (5 yrs), Javy Guerra (6 yrs), Bednar (6 yrs)

Not often you see a team acquire an ENTIRE Bullpen with 3 years or more control of every guy in one off/season!   Yates for 1 year makes more sense; allows Pagan & Adams to assert themselves in late innings & young elite potential guys like Guerra & Castillo to develop without blocking them "forever", and for WAY less $.