Quote from fenn68 on October 3, 2020, 6:07 am

Beginning to think the return of Yates for 2021 is more likely. Clearly he was a top closer in 2019 ... the injury was “just” bone chips so should be a low risk recovery.

What triggered this thinking was the way the other players like Yates ... who was around the team in the final weeks (in dugout, etc) and in the playoffs they had a full cutout of Yates in the bullpen then last night after the win the took the cutout onto the field as part fo the celebration.

Yates likes SD and clearly the team likes Yates. This may become a decision that combines talent and the team fit. Would guess that Rosenthal will be too costly to return (probably 3 years / $36MM) where Yates’ deal should be shorter and lower AAV.

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A Yates return would make the pen even more complicated given the number of RHRP who cannot be optioned ... hard to forecast injuries in ST so Preller will have to be strategic in dealing the “excess” for some sort of return and just not losing some via waivers. Remember only 13 pitchers (8 relief) next season.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 3, 2020, 11:29 am

Concur on Yates and extremely proud that his cut-out was in the bullpen and in that team photo - he deserves to be there!  Also, not so sure Rosenthal goes elsewhere.  I think he really is buying into this team and if the offers are comparable, at his age and because of the volatility of RPs, he could stay.  It is a nice problem to have.  We do have excess RPs even without Yates and Rosenthal, however, some of our currently low leverage guys and some even sitting in the minors or coming off injury would be improvements for probably 1/2 the bullpens in the majors.  I think this is where we pick up some prospects with a little upside for re-stocking the minors at the high A or low A level.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 3, 2020, 1:07 pm

Two "closers" on the rebound for injury ... Rosenthal (30) and Yates (33) ... both likely would want to be "closers" and get paid like closers. Yates was ticketed for $7MM in 2020 and Rosenthal was at $7MM in 2019 before his injury. Add that Rosenthal has proven his recovery in 2020. At this stage of their careers (and maybe the last chance for a major contract), would guess neither would take a discounted pay or the set-up role.

I guess there is a small chance that in the coming FA market ... where money is held tight by the clubs ... the offers may not be there and both could opt for "pillow contracts" with the Padres. Still that combo would be costly if the assumption is they have only $15MM to add and while losing Profar and Richards.

Yates would be my guess given the longer history plus coming off injury should be the lower cost option.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 3, 2020, 1:10 pm

I know many of us were excited about the addition of a real bat at C, with the addition of Nola. However, since joining SD, he has just a .217 BA. A drop in almost 90 points since joining SD.

Many think that Campy could be ready as soon as opening day 2021; or at least, mid season 2021.

DET is probably in need of a C, do they have anything that could be of use for SD?

Resign Castro, and go with Mejia to start 2021?

Quote from lafnboy13 on October 3, 2020, 3:47 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 3, 2020, 1:07 pm

Two "closers" on the rebound for injury ... Rosenthal (30) and Yates (33) ... both likely would want to be "closers" and get paid like closers. Yates was ticketed for $7MM in 2020 and Rosenthal was at $7MM in 2019 before his injury. Add that Rosenthal has proven his recovery in 2020. At this stage of their careers (and maybe the last chance for a major contract), would guess neither would take a discounted pay or the set-up role.

I guess there is a small chance that in the coming FA market ... where money is held tight by the clubs ... the offers may not be there and both could opt for "pillow contracts" with the Padres. Still that combo would be costly if the assumption is they have only $15MM to add and while losing Profar and Richards.

Yates would be my guess given the longer history plus coming off injury should be the lower cost option.

If we are looking to save money and bring in cheap rotation options then maybe bring back one of Rosenthal/Yates and convert Paddack into a high leverage reliever?

Quote from JasonE135 on October 3, 2020, 5:53 pm

Quote from lafnboy13 on October 3, 2020, 3:47 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 3, 2020, 1:07 pm

Two "closers" on the rebound for injury ... Rosenthal (30) and Yates (33) ... both likely would want to be "closers" and get paid like closers. Yates was ticketed for $7MM in 2020 and Rosenthal was at $7MM in 2019 before his injury. Add that Rosenthal has proven his recovery in 2020. At this stage of their careers (and maybe the last chance for a major contract), would guess neither would take a discounted pay or the set-up role.

I guess there is a small chance that in the coming FA market ... where money is held tight by the clubs ... the offers may not be there and both could opt for "pillow contracts" with the Padres. Still that combo would be costly if the assumption is they have only $15MM to add and while losing Profar and Richards.

Yates would be my guess given the longer history plus coming off injury should be the lower cost option.

If we are looking to save money and bring in cheap rotation options then maybe bring back one of Rosenthal/Yates and convert Paddack into a high leverage reliever?

I doubt the Padres will take a guy who had as good of a rookie full season as Paddack did in 2019 and convert him to relief based solely on a bad 1/3 season.

I expect us to bring back 1 of Rosenthal or Yates. Probably Yates since I expect his value will be the lower of the 2. But we still have a lot of relievers.

Quote from fenn68 on October 3, 2020, 7:58 pm

Paddack should be in the mix for a starting role in 2021 ... up to him to hold it. With Richards gone (and not very likely to be resigned) they already have a slot to fill with one of Gore, Patino, or Morejon for the start of the season. The other two are likely to be in the pen pressing for a starting role ... one surfaces as soon as Davies departs after 2021 (in not sooner). So by the end of 2021 ... 4 to fill 3 slots and make the call then after seeing them all at the ML level.

With Lamet, Clevinger, and Davies and a pretty strong starting line-up the Padres should be in playoff contention again ... not going into 2021 over changing the package that earned them success and experimenting at the ML level. Might be different if they were coming off a 90 loss season.

If they sign Yates ... already too many proven RHRP that are good needing to be culled.

If Paddack struggles early AND the Padres start slowly risking a playoff spot ... one of the others will get their shot and Paddack may end up in AAA to “work things out”.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 4, 2020, 11:19 am

Definitely a Non-Zero chance of any of our 5 impending FA returning.  Obviously 0% of all 5 back.  Do think if we somehow win the World Series, the odds of a re-sign for all but Yates go down significantly.

Rosenthal & Yates:  It's one or none.  Rosenthal's stock is sky high, and the best FA closer on the market is not going to see his value get impacted negatively.  Don't think Pads will be willing to commit what it would cost to re-sign him; much > AAV than Pomeranz.  Hard to see ANY team giving Yates even a 2 year guarantee at his age & off injury.  He & his wife & family LOVE SD, and obviously want to remain a part of the now fun winning team.  Seems like Pads are in great position to offer a 1 year + incentives + club option with a significant buyout with all 3 of those adding up to good $ for Kirby & opportunity to re-establish his value, but not kill us on 2021 payroll.  Can definitely argue Pads are "OK" with neither (run with Adams or Pagan as RH "closer"; maybe splitting 8th/9th with Pom based on lineups), but 1 of these 2 guys there makes this bullpen much > this season's was "supposed to be"; utterly dominant on paper.

Profar:  He's been discussed endlessly.  Depends on $, and his willingness to maybe technically be a backup for LF/2B.  But worth mentioning I thought Profar was acquired partly to take some of Hosmer's playing time vs LHP.  Hosmer's re-worked swing, 6 RBI 1st game, much better season than past 2 in very small sample, being on a good team in general, and start/stop season with 2 IL stints has masked the fact that, for the 3rd season in a row, he simply has not hit LHP.  With Ty France gone, and Cronenworth also struggling so far vs LHP, 1B vs LHP is yet another place super versatile Profar would add value.

Richards:   I have gone from thinking Richards was most valuable FA to re-sign, to thinking near zero chance.  Now I'm swinging back to re-signing him.  Maybe even over a RH closer if it's either/or.  I perceived his move to pen a LITTLE as a slap in the face.  But now it looks more like: "you're a better RP AND SP option than Paddack is right now".   Richards "is" our #4 SP right now.  Losing him in the face of:  #5 CP's struggles, elbow issues for #1 & #2 SP's, chink-in -the-armor outing suggesting highly likely regression for Davies over the course of a full season, #6 SP Lucchesi's future with team uncertain, and 2 major problems with the highly rated prospects:  Either not enough "innings" total @ Alt site to build up their arms to a full MLB season (Gore, Baez, Weathers), or their use in MLB pen really hindered their development as SP's by severely limiting innings (Morejon, Patino).

Wouldn't it feel so much better to come into next year with #1-4 spots cemented, and Paddack likely #5 but having to hold off all the young guys who can go back to truly working on their craft & building IP being Minors SP's vs MLB RP's.   Long season they will get their MLB chances...   Would Richards hit "re-set" and do a 1 year deal similar structure to this season heading into a weak FA market?  Maybe even lower base/higher incentives?   His year was "OK", but 4.03 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / .244 BAA  worse flyball/groundball ratio probably not what he was hoping for.  Or does he fear being "pegged" as a RP & moved there when young SP's deemed "ready"?  We'll see.  I would only sign him to a 1 year deal.  Probably what he'd want too if can't get 3-4 years.

Castro:   Seems highly unlikely with Mejia & Campusano there.  But here's my rationale:  Minors deal at 1 -1.5 MM.  Low expenditure at position with Nola; less than with Hedges + "expensive" Castro this season.  Campusano NEEDS to play full time at AA/AAA for at least a few months in real games.  But at least he developed this season at the Alt site.  Mejia had a "lost" season where the thumb injury killed his offense & it never 100% healed.   He only made 12 starts all season.  I BELIEVE his last option is retained because he was sent down so late in season.

What if Mejiia starts year in AAA making up for lost time, Campusano at AA.  Not much left in the tank but experienced, well respected Castro there to mentor still new to position Nola & start every 4th game vs RHP.  After a few months see where things are at.  If 1 of the 2 is red hot, could run with 3 C's in MLB.  Or maybe trade Castro @ deadline.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 4, 2020, 12:33 pm

Nice logic on all ... now how to balance all that with maybe $15MM to commit and the players/agents seeking money and playing opportunities?