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Potential frontline SP trade
#31 · November 16, 2018, 10:39 am
Agree that the Padres would prefer to trade for a top of the rotation arm (if they don't have to give up any key prospects for their own 2020-2022 run) rather than get in any bidding war for a top line player and have to commit to a longer term deal.
Syndergaard does have his injury history ... so carries some risk but almost all deals for SP do. However, 3 years control hits the Padres "sweet spot" and at something around $6MM next season then 2 arbitration increased ... a potential real economic bargain .. also he is pretty good.
IF the Mets are willing to sell ... not sure which direction they want to go (experience to contend or prospects). A blend? If they want to contend ... Hedges might interest them to handle an elite staff the add some top prospects or maybe a Hedges plus Yates might diminish the prospect haul. Could go a lot of ways.
Add that it is sounding as though AZ is working hard to find a deal for Greinke and eating some salary is possible. Again a 3 year control with top of the rotation stuff. MIGHT cost less in prospects if the Padres take more of the contract (which they could financially).
Preller plays one deal vs. the other to get the best price for 3 years control of a top of the rotation arm ... or gets both.
#32 · November 16, 2018, 5:05 pm
I think they Prefer Noah... and I'd love to add Eovaldi OR Kelkuchi (JPN) (via FA)..
a SP staff of
Noah
Eovaldi/Kelkuchi
Lucchesi
Lauer
Strahm ?Erlin/BP game
A nice base as the window opens... then its all about the Waves of P prospects pushing to improve the rotation for yrs to come.... I know many here are saying we aren't ready in 2019 but lets say we add these 2, get Franco to man 3B and resign Galvis to hold SS until Tatis Jr is ready.... and say the Noah trade, directly or indirectly (rumors of a 3rd team involved) costs us (from the MLB roster) Stanmen, Renfroe, and Mejia...
a 2019 lineup of
1- Urias 2B
2- Hosmer 1B
3- Myers LF
4- Reyes RF
5- Franco 3B
6- Galvis SS
7- Hedges C
8- Margot CF
should at least get us 77 to 84 wins as we begin stage 1, (Stage 2 offseason 2019) of the road back to #postseason
#33 · November 18, 2018, 2:28 pm
Isn’t it about a 90% surety that Clayton Richard is in next years rotation?
#34 · November 18, 2018, 2:55 pm
Quote from David Nevin on November 18, 2018, 2:28 pmIsn’t it about a 90% surety that Clayton Richard is in next years rotation?
I'd think that if the Padres were to land a couple of new starters like Eovaldi and/or Kikuchi, they'd look at either moving Clayton to the bullpen, trading him, or outright releasing him. I doubt they'd let a $3m salary for an aging vet block another player or otherwise get in the way of improving the club.
#35 · November 19, 2018, 5:41 am
Well I agree it’s not the $$ but I just see him in the rotation to start next season regardless.
Id love to see Strahm myself.....but if it comes down to Lauer or Richard?
Plus I don’t think we add “two” top of the rotation starters this off season.
Would be nice......but I just don’t see it with all the arms we have coming the next 2 seasons.
#36 · November 19, 2018, 7:59 am
a lot of dominoes have to fall between now and opening day .... trades / FA .... injuries .... ST performances ... and considering none of the current arms are truly established, Padres have a pretty open slate. With 5 SP slots and no chance the find 5 new arms ... have some high probability survivors.
Very high probability:
1. Lauer .... 4.34 ERA but 3.14 post All-Star game and the youngest of the main candidates
2. Lucchesi .... 4.08 ERA but 4.88 post All-Star game ... has the "stuff" the organization likes, still a prospect that benefits for ML development
High probability:
3. Strahm ... (as a RP) 2.05 ERA and 1.69 post All-Star game .... "everyone" seems to love his stuff and suggests that would play as a SP ... expect him to get stretched out and given a starting role (at least to start the season).
Coin flip:
4. Mitchell ... 5.42 ERA but 2.19 post-All Star game (limited innings at 15) .... Mitchell is out of options and his control issues make him marginal out of the pen .... fair chance he gets a last run as a SP to start the season.
5. PTNL via FA or trade
On the bubble:
6. Erlin ... 4.21 ERA and 4.58 ERA post All Star game ... much better in relief than starting and a good chance he gets bumped to the pen by Strahm and serves as the long relief / spot starter
7. Richard ... 5.33 ERA and 8.57 post All Star game .... not all of that can be attributed to his knee and coupled with him going on 35 in his last contract year a good chance he is not on the roster to start the season,.
Unlikely but: Kennedy, Diaz, Perdomo if the dominoes fall right for them.
Add that I would expect Logan Allen to be an early season call-up once the Padres sort through their initial starting 5 and weed out the underperformers / injured. The next wave of better prospects either late in the season or 2019.
#37 · November 19, 2018, 11:37 am
IMO Mitchell will have ST to prove he can get through 5 major league innings.
How soon do we think Lamet can be ready to return?
#38 · November 19, 2018, 2:29 pm
Quote from David Nevin on November 19, 2018, 11:37 amIMO Mitchell will have ST to prove he can get through 5 major league innings.
How soon do we think Lamet can be ready to return?
Always hard to make a call on TJ Surgery timeline but so far the Padres have been indicating he will be ready to throw during ST but will be on a "controlled" innings limit in 2019.
That suggests to me that he will be in the minors and start an pitching count build from month to month ... so not likely a factor in the ML ... maybe we see him (and maybe in relief) near the end of the season. Basically, make sure he is healthy / full strength for 2020.
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MrPadre19
#39 · November 19, 2018, 4:04 pm
I like the idea of Strahm & Lamet sharing 1 SP spot split 1st half / 2nd half, with Strahm moving to pen (regardless of effectiveness) in 2nd 1/2 to make way for Lamet.
Of course, Lamet will take a full 30 days rehab assignment, or really no harm in optioning him if he needs more time to get ready.
The issue with being ultra conservative with Lamet is that it then subsequently limits his innings in 2020 even further...
#40 · November 19, 2018, 4:54 pm
I see them working Lamet in a "controlled build" of innings / pitches to strengthen his arm while tying to avoid re-injury by over working early. More of a start of the season with a maybe a 40-50 pitch limit and, depending on health and effectiveness, work up to the 90-100 pitch level by the end of the season. That should be fine for him going full bore in 2020 ... especially with the current MLB trend to go the the pen early and pull starters.
If it were me, I would just option Lamet out of ST (either to extended ST or LE) if he is healthy. Lamet has 130 days of ML service time into his second year so any time the spends on the ML DL just adds to his service time and the Padres end up losing a year of control (about 40 or so days is enough). So, if he is optioned then recalled for Sept he still would be shy of the 2 year mark. He has 3 options year remaining I think.
However, his surgery was in April, 2018 ... less than 12 months usually is not sufficient to come back even marginally ... so a very good chance they drop him back on the 60 day DL out of ST (does open a roster spot at that point) ... run him out to extended ST then in a couple of months get him the 30 day rehab. Deal with his return (and finding a spot on the 40 man) maybe in June / July.
Just never know about TJ recovery .... Paddack seemed good but remember Luebke ... so TBD.