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Potential frontline SP trade

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With all of the SP trade speculation, thought this would be good food for thought:   2 years ago, the White Sox traded Chris Sale to the Red Sox for: 

·        2B Yoan Moncada (#1 overall prospect in MLB)

·        PLUS substantial (8-figure) $$ relief via Red Sox absorbing prorated signing bonus & penalty,

·        SP Michael Kopech (#3 in system, #67 overall),

·        CF Luis Alexander Basabe (#8 in system),

·        RP Victor Diaz (#28 in system).

Since Sale’s 3/38 contract is SO comparable to what Noah Syndergaard might project to with 3 years of Arb control ( 6 / 12 / 20 ?) at full health, I thought it would be interesting to “re-construct” that trade using Padres current assets.  Here’s the simplistic first draft (don’t worry… this is a non-starter!)

·        SS Tatis, Jr. (#2 overall MLB prospect)

·        C Mejia (#3 in system, #26 overall)

·        LHP Logan Allen (#8 in system, #76 overall)

·        CF Edward Olivares (#28 in system)

This trade won’t happen for 3 reasons:  1) Pads aren’t trading Tatis (or Gore) for anyone, 2) Pads system clearly better than White Sox was 2 years ago with #8 system prospect in top 100 overall about the same as White Sox #3 prospect Kopech, 3)  Sale at the time of the trade had been more much more durable/reliable than Syndergaard has.

So how about this:

·        CHOICE RH Corner OF:   Renfroe (or Reyes)

·        CHOICE C:   Mejia (or Hedges)                                   “=” Moncada collectively

·        CHOICE LHSP:  Erlin (or Richard)

·        Logan Allen                                                     = Kopech (2nd top 100 /SP near MLB prospect)            

·        CHOICE CF:  #19 system Jeisson Rosario (or Olivares)  =  Basabe (CWS # 8 in  2016)

·        RHSP/RP:  #29 Pedro Avila                          =/>  Diaz

·        If neccy:   Padres take a “minor” 5-10 MM bad contract

So yes, that is a 6 for 1 (or more likely 2, with 2nd being bad contract or fringe 40-man roster guy).

Is this a huge amount to give up?  Yes.  Does it make sense for the Padres?  Yes. 

The instant argument against is with Pads “not competing” in 2019, why give up so much for “only” 2 years where we might compete.  The answer is the immense hole filled and positive trickle down effect of having a legit #1 for 3 years; the pressure taken off all of the young SP’s pitching where they better fit in a rotation could cumulatively be even bigger than Syndergaard himself.  Corner OF has to go anyway, C & LH SP are next deepest positions.

Hard to see Mets saying “no” to 2 top 100 guys PLUS 5-6 year control power hitting MLB RH OF, cheap MLB backfill until Logan Allen ready, and 2 prospects in 10-20 range of most systems.

This proposal can be framework for other trade candidates, esp Kluber (though doubt they’d want Mejia back which makes talent match harder).  Scale down for lesser control guys like Carrasco or Paxton…

Nicely constructed logic. However, that deal had Sale going to BOST to win immediately and the prospects to a team on the building side. Padres are more CWS in 2019. So, one might assume they paid higher than market to get immediate return.

Would not expect DeGroom or Syndergaard to be on the market since the NYM are making noise of their intent to compete now (and given their Division not totally unrealistic with their pitching staff) plus the subtlety of both of those arms were former clients of their new GM when he was a player agent (up to his GM appointment). For now, NYM look like buyers of ML proven ML talent.

I shy away for Carrasco or Paxton expecting with the competition from contenders in 2019 the player cost to get them would exceed their two year value to the Padres.

I still look at two criteria if they go for a top of the rotation arm: 1) has to be a minimum of 3 control years; and 2) they players given up are have equal or better alternatives available to the Padres in 2020-22. (note and not Gore who would be on track to replace whomever they deal for as the top of the rotation arm). Not sure there are many top of the rotation / 3+ years control on the trade market so MAYBE they gamble a bit and trade for a top of the rotation AAA/ML neophyte with that POTENTIAL. Alternatively, since the payroll is flexible for years ... the FA pursuit of Corbin or Keuchel or Eovaldi might be the better approach ... get the top of the rotation arm and keep the prospects.

Off topic but you know who else has the Mets new GM was their agent?

Tim Tebow.

Would expect to see him in NY next September now for sure.

You know you're living life right when your a 32 year old prospect and your agent not only becomes a MLB

GM but the GM of "your" team.

 

 

 

Im not sure of AZ OF needs with the departure of Pollock; however, there is rumor that they are looking for salary relief. I wonder if there is the basis for a Myers/Jank for Greinke trade that could work for both teams. AZ would get a great defensive CFer in Jank, Myers would provide a LF/1B option if they lose Goldy after next season(or trade this offseason) and they would get roughly $10M per year in salary relief over the next 3 years. Greinke; except for the 1st season in AZ, has been his normal self 200 innings, 200Ks, and a low era in AZ. We would stay yougn and cheap in the OF and get a frontline pitcher in Greinke for 3 years for $10M over what we would pay Myers.

Quote from Booster SD on November 8, 2018, 1:46 pm

Im not sure of AZ OF needs with the departure of Pollock; however, there is rumor that they are looking for salary relief. I wonder if there is the basis for a Myers/Jank for Greinke trade that could work for both teams. AZ would get a great defensive CFer in Jank, Myers would provide a LF/1B option if they lose Goldy after next season(or trade this offseason) and they would get roughly $10M per year in salary relief over the next 3 years. Greinke; except for the 1st season in AZ, has been his normal self 200 innings, 200Ks, and a low era in AZ. We would stay yougn and cheap in the OF and get a frontline pitcher in Greinke for 3 years for $10M over what we would pay Myers.

Nice work Booster!  Think Pads need to explore EVERY avenue like this (i.e. multi-player/prospect trades).  It's easy to say there's tons of guys they can just jettison off the 40-man roster to make room for protecting more, but there's a fundamental problem with that.  Not only do you lose guys at the edges of your roster by either Waivers or Rule 5, but more importantly you also have the situation like now where you lose leverage in trade negotiations b/c teams know you "have to" deal a MLB OF (next year it will be a MLB LH SP)... you don't want to get stuck with diminished return dealing just that one guy at a logjam position.

IMO, the way you overcome this is by packaging multiple players & prospects to move up the quality ladder, but also getting the secondary benefit resolving some of the roster pressure.

I like Greinke and he seems the type to just keep on rolling but at 35 he's bound to hit a wall soon.

D-Backs also have 2 of their top prospects at 1b in Kevin Cron and Pavin Smith.

Count me in for someone younger......

 

FENN:   I shy away for Carrasco or Paxton expecting with the competition from contenders in 2019 the player cost to get them would exceed their two year value to the Padres.I still look at two criteria if they go for a top of the rotation arm: 1) has to be a minimum of 3 control years; and 2) they players given up are have equal or better alternatives available to the Padres in 2020-22. (note and not Gore who would be on track to replace whomever they deal for as the top of the rotation arm). Not sure there are many top of the rotation / 3+ years control on the trade market

I agree with this general logic; have to go for 3 year guys due to unlikely to contend next year.  Pads have #1 Farm, some young MLB talent, and low payroll; not sure how much better positioned a team can be than they are to make a big trade.  Simply have the assets to "overpay" to get someone.  "That guy" is ALWAYS hard to get (and I'm speculating on Syndergaard being available 'at all'), but I think the need at #1 SP is massively greater than the need at 3B:

As you pointed out, a Spangy/Villanueva platoon doesn't look bad on paper.  But the easiest fallback solution for if can't get a 3 yr SP or big upgrade 3B is:  get a 1 yr SP like Sonny Gray, tell Freddy Galvis you're NOT signing a 3B, and overpay him 2-3 years to be the everyday SS... and plug Tatis into 3B in May/June.  If the team overperforms in this scenario, they could maybe trade for a 1.5 - 2.5 year control SP at deadline ...

...but not ideal.  15-deep SP options today in my order:  Lucchesi, Lauer, Strahm/Lamet (1/2 season each?), Bryan Mitchell, Clay Richard, Erlin, Perdomo, Rea, Nix, Kennedy, Lockett, maybe Miguel Diaz, Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill, Chris Paddack.

Need for someone at the top of the rotation to lead the way, even in 2019 is glaring... just don't think ANY of these guys project there even in 2020.  # 1 Potential:   GORE, Espinoza, Maybe Lamet, Morejon, Baez, Patino?  Fundamentally not:  Lauer, Mitchell, Nix, Logan Allen, Quantrill, Ryan Weathers.  Paddack & Lucchesi have outperformed their projections, but maybe still #3 type ceilings in MLB.

Greinke might be a good gamble for the Padres being under control for 3 years (a little worried they are ages 35-36-37 but he appears to be one that remains healthy). He does have a limited no-trade contract (maybe about half the teams ... just don't know who) that could be a benefit or hurdle in making a deal with the Padres.

Padres would not have an issue with picking up the differential in salary between Greinke and Myers and have the prospects to add to the deal without damaging the future.

Given the payroll space ... and IF AZ really wants to pare down payroll .... the Padres could potentially get Greinke without dealing Myers (whose contract may actually detract for AZ making the deal). Greinke is owed about $105MM ... if the Padres would take on the bulk of that contract (which they could) could they get him for bundle of "lesser" prospects like Nix, Avila, Mitchell (all will be on the 40 man) and maybe someone like Naylor ... legit prospect to replace Goldy but no real Padre future. That would preserve Myers / Renfroe / Reyes to another deal to fill other holes.

Quote from fenn68 on November 9, 2018, 10:44 am

Greinke might be a good gamble for the Padres being under control for 3 years (a little worried they are ages 35-36-37 but he appears to be one that remains healthy). He does have a limited no-trade contract (maybe about half the teams ... just don't know who) that could be a benefit or hurdle in making a deal with the Padres.

Padres would not have an issue with picking up the differential in salary between Greinke and Myers and have the prospects to add to the deal without damaging the future.

Given the payroll space ... and IF AZ really wants to pare down payroll .... the Padres could potentially get Greinke without dealing Myers (whose contract may actually detract for AZ making the deal). Greinke is owed about $105MM ... if the Padres would take on the bulk of that contract (which they could) could they get him for bundle of "lesser" prospects like Nix, Avila, Mitchell (all will be on the 40 man) and maybe someone like Naylor ... legit prospect to replace Goldy but no real Padre future. That would preserve Myers / Renfroe / Reyes to another deal to fill other holes.

When looking at AZ top prospects on mlb.com, their top catcher is probably destined for the OF, and the other is not projected until maybe 2020, and he is 30th in their system which is not that great. So Hedges, Jank, Avila, and Kennedy for Greinke and some cash, maybe $10M/season.

I think we should have little to no interest in a guy who is currently 35 and will be 36 for our 2020 season.

It hurts me a little to say that, too, since I myself am an active 35 year old with achy bones.