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Potential frontline SP trade

Quote from Booster SD on November 13, 2018, 6:38 pm
Quote from fenn68 on November 9, 2018, 10:44 am

Greinke might be a good gamble for the Padres being under control for 3 years (a little worried they are ages 35-36-37 but he appears to be one that remains healthy). He does have a limited no-trade contract (maybe about half the teams ... just don't know who) that could be a benefit or hurdle in making a deal with the Padres.

Padres would not have an issue with picking up the differential in salary between Greinke and Myers and have the prospects to add to the deal without damaging the future.

Given the payroll space ... and IF AZ really wants to pare down payroll .... the Padres could potentially get Greinke without dealing Myers (whose contract may actually detract for AZ making the deal). Greinke is owed about $105MM ... if the Padres would take on the bulk of that contract (which they could) could they get him for bundle of "lesser" prospects like Nix, Avila, Mitchell (all will be on the 40 man) and maybe someone like Naylor ... legit prospect to replace Goldy but no real Padre future. That would preserve Myers / Renfroe / Reyes to another deal to fill other holes.

I cant believe that I didnt think about this facet of a trade with the DBacks when I first suggested a trade for Greinke. I forgot that they could also help us with our 3B issue. Jake Lamb; should he successfully recover from shoulder surgery, would make a nice platoon with CV for SD. He is a FA after the 2021 season should I be reading his contract status correctly, meaning he shouldnt block Potts for too long. His salary was $4.275M last year and shouldnt see much of an increase due to a injury shortened year.

 

Check out the second post in the Offseason thread.....:)

Quote from David Nevin on November 13, 2018, 8:20 pm
Quote from Booster SD on November 13, 2018, 6:38 pm
Quote from fenn68 on November 9, 2018, 10:44 am

Greinke might be a good gamble for the Padres being under control for 3 years (a little worried they are ages 35-36-37 but he appears to be one that remains healthy). He does have a limited no-trade contract (maybe about half the teams ... just don't know who) that could be a benefit or hurdle in making a deal with the Padres.

Padres would not have an issue with picking up the differential in salary between Greinke and Myers and have the prospects to add to the deal without damaging the future.

Given the payroll space ... and IF AZ really wants to pare down payroll .... the Padres could potentially get Greinke without dealing Myers (whose contract may actually detract for AZ making the deal). Greinke is owed about $105MM ... if the Padres would take on the bulk of that contract (which they could) could they get him for bundle of "lesser" prospects like Nix, Avila, Mitchell (all will be on the 40 man) and maybe someone like Naylor ... legit prospect to replace Goldy but no real Padre future. That would preserve Myers / Renfroe / Reyes to another deal to fill other holes.

I cant believe that I didnt think about this facet of a trade with the DBacks when I first suggested a trade for Greinke. I forgot that they could also help us with our 3B issue. Jake Lamb; should he successfully recover from shoulder surgery, would make a nice platoon with CV for SD. He is a FA after the 2021 season should I be reading his contract status correctly, meaning he shouldnt block Potts for too long. His salary was $4.275M last year and shouldnt see much of an increase due to a injury shortened year.

 

Check out the second post in the Offseason thread.....:)

So I am agreeing with you much later, except I'm not in for Ahmed.

Quote from Commie on November 13, 2018, 7:25 pm,
Paying for four or five years of Corbin, Keuchel or Eovaldi is FAR more risky than this deal.

You're right in a sense, it is less risky to pay for complete trash, than it is to pay for potential trash because at least you won't get your hopes up.

I guess if I were Preller ..... with 2019 still not likely competitive and 2020-2022 the apparent target for being a contender for my boss Fowler .... I would look at adding SP as follows:

1. Go BIG for one clear #1 / ACE with at least 3 years control (money not necessarily a concern) ... at the level of a Kluber, Greinke, Corbin (although not really sold on giving him a 6 year deal), or Keuchel.

2. AVOID any multi-year commitment to any mid-range / mediocre SP who who would eventually block the wave of legit prospects getting to the ML and ML development time.

3. IF the right circumstances fall in place .... add a veteran, low cost, innings eater SP on a one year deal to at least bridge to mid-season (or to 2019) ... someone we would not have an issue dumping later. Given the payroll situation would not have an issue with adding Sonny Grey ... potential for a trade deadline flip and positive for 2019 on-field improvement.

=======

The key is the wave of SP (good ones) coming over the next couple of years who will need to actually pitch in the ML to prove / or disprove their projections, consider:

2019: expect Lauer / Lucchesi / Strahm (who likely will bump Erlin to the pen) should get a long run as SP to start the filtering process.

mid-2019: expect Logan Allen to get inserted over whomever is sitting in the 4th or 5th slot .... Allen Padres #8 prospect (MLB #76) and in AAA to start the season.

2020: expect the post TJ return of Lamet; full season availability of Paddack (#5 prospect); plus Nix (#14 prospect) and Quantrill (#11 prospect).

2021: expect knocking on the door Morejon (#6); Baez (#7); Lawson (#21); Avila (#29) ... plus if they are as good as advertised don't be surprised if Gore (#2) and Patino (#9) are poised for a mid-season arrival.

That is a lot of quality to cover the normal high failure rate and they need to pitch and not get blocked by "filler" veterans.

Back to 2019 and dealing with some temporary filler for the 5 SP slots which could also be used for some final filtering of the Padres own fringe pieces ... e.g. Mitchell (out of options); Richard (under contract innings eater who is can buy the Padres time); Perdomo; Diaz; Kennedy (I guess) all could cover those last 2 slots with the first dropped for Allen (think June 1 or so) then play it by ear on the second.

 

Quote from Cptjack on November 13, 2018, 11:05 pm
Quote from Commie on November 13, 2018, 7:25 pm,
Paying for four or five years of Corbin, Keuchel or Eovaldi is FAR more risky than this deal.

You're right in a sense, it is less risky to pay for complete trash, than it is to pay for potential trash because at least you won't get your hopes up.

Hi Sunshine. I wouldn't consider Duffy trash of any kind, but maybe I'm in the minority. Corbin has now somehow become trash or potential trash? Quick, call Brian Cashman and warn him before he completes the deal to bring one of them in (and goes out to celebrate).

Corbin/Eovaldi would only be trash if their contracts blow up in our faces. Which is the insinuation you made with it being a riskier play than the known bad contract of Kennedy and mediocre contract on Duffy (if this isn't the new norm for him).

Quote from Cptjack on November 15, 2018, 12:41 am

Corbin/Eovaldi would only be trash if their contracts blow up in our faces. Which is the insinuation you made with it being a riskier play than the known bad contract of Kennedy and mediocre contract on Duffy (if this isn't the new norm for him).

It's really the length of contract (guessing five at least for either of the guys you mentioned, prob more for Corbin with opt outs which increase team risk) with AAV over $20 mil per vs being out from under Kennedy in two (33 mil total) and Duffy in three seasons (46 mil). I don't see a way to get Duffy now without taking Kennedy or big prospect over pay.

But if you are lukewarm at best on Duffy then almost any trade for him that might actually go through is not logical. I of course am bullish on him.

These thoughts are probably more speculation the rumor ... clearly not fact ... for some national media types about the Padres and adding SP:

1. Eovaldi apparently has been given some positive reports on his arm (the major question mark was his health long term) ... Padres are "interested" as a power arm add to the top of the starting rotation.

2. Syndergaard (this idea has resurfaced) and this time from Ken Rosenthal clearly citing the Padres "interest" (and the farm system assets to get it done) and somewhat discounting the Mets stance that they are not trading either DeGrom or Syndergaard since very unlikely the will extend both and DeGrom is the better and fan darling. Mets do need some more pieces to contend now and in the future (poor farm system). Note: Mets would not be looking for Myers types but more on high end prospects.

Both of those "speculations" to add a high end power pitcher does dovetail with some Padres views:

1. they need a top of the rotation arm for the next 3-4 years until their SP prospects sort themselves out;

2. their current mix (Lauer, Lucchesi, et. al) and the near term arrivals (Allen, Nix, Quantrill) are low 90s FB types. Syndergaard and Eovaldi are power arms.

Add that concept that comes for Balsley, past managers, et. al is the value of running out pitchers with different "looks" and "stuff" keeping the opposing hitters from getting in a grove. Padres seem to be setting up a rotation that should include "lower velocity " LHP: Lauer, Lucchesi, Allen, maybe Strahm so a power RHP would give a differtent look and may even make the LHP better.

Padres Showing Interest In Noah Syndergaard

After a failed pursuit of Noah Syndergaard this past July, the Padres remain interested in acquiring the right-hander from the Mets, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). SNY’s Andy Martino writes that Friars “are expected” to be more aggressive in their pursuit this time around....

.... hope it happens!   All the Eovaldi talk makes me shake my head.  Would I love to have him?  Yes.  But he's going to cost (in $) double what Syndergaard will for vastly more risk / less track record.  Oh yeah, and PADRES ARE NOT WELL POSITIONED TO COMPETE WITH THE 15-20+ TEAMS INTERESTED IN HIM... BECAUSE WE WILL NOT BE COMPETITIVE NEXT YEAR; WHY WOULD WE HE CHOOSE US?  Eric Hosmer had 2 teams to choose from & Pads STILL had to overpay to get him away from a team that was clearly going to start rebuilding & not contending.

By contrast, Padres are uniquely well-positioned to trade due to combo of system quality & depth and some young MLB talent.  Not that many teams that can compete with Padres, and player doesn't have a say in the matter!  Comes down to teams/GM's willingness to deal & the match.