Quote from Brian Connelly on April 9, 2019, 12:04 pm

This is a Trevor Bauer specific question.  Since he is adamant that he is only going to sign 1 year deals at a time as a FA...

Say someone (i.e. US!) trades for him this season = 1.5 seasons control.  Then we make the Qualifying Offer to him after 2020...

... even though teams don't have to give up as much in draft as they used to to sign these guys, is anyone really going to be willing to give up draft picks just to get him on a 1 year deal in excess of the 19-20 MM qualifying offer?  Wouldn't Bauer's stance effectively give the Padres leverage to hold down his value for the 2021 year and then, if the price is right, just match/beat that price for 2021 only WITHOUT giving up any draft picks?  Ex. NYY or someone 'would have' given him 30 MM in 2021, but due to losing draft picks for only 1 year service are "only" willing to go to 25 MM ( I realize these $/#'s might be stupid..), so Pads match that & he re-ups in 2021 for 25 MM?

Am I missing something?  Is a team that makes a Qualifying Offer not allowed to re-sign that player as a FA for only 1 year?

Maybe Bauer won't "walk the talk" when the time comes, but he'd look like an idiot if he didn't he's been so outspoken about it.

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 9, 2019, 1:02 pm

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 OK, after sitting stewing looking at stats/thinking, I’ve come to these 2 conclusions:

1)      Pads do have an “army of depth” @ SP in 3 categories:

·        40-man “failed SP” + one:  Wisler, Erlin, Perdomo, + Pedro Avila

·        Non-roster “Bad Spring”:  L. Allen, Quantrill, B. Mitchell

·        Injured 40-man:  Kennedy, Nix, Lamet, G. Richards

So 7 guys right now (4 on 40, 2 on 25-man) that could fill in for a spot start or short DL stint.   After digesting this I now agree with FENN & many others that these internal options are better than external 5^th SP types like Dan Straily.   HOWEVER…

2)       Padres NEED a GOOD “top of Rotation” SP (#1-3 clear playoff starter) to PROTECT & IMPROVE ALL THE YOUNG IP-LIMITED SP’S--AS WELL AS THE BACK OF THE BULLPEN.  Adding this piece would move needle for Pads from “Dark Horse” to legit playoff contender.

This is even more true now than before season started for many reasons:

·        Pads good + Rockies bad start (0-4 at home) to season; 4 game lead over Rox after 11 games is big!

·        Tatis, Jr clearly proving he’s ready & belongs in MLB & will be + WAR

·        Massively over-reliant on Yates & Stammen:   they project right now to 96 appearances & 103 IP on average for season.  Sounds ridiculous… “It’ll even out as season goes along”.  Really?  They WILL pitch more often, the more Pads are “in” games, AND NONE of the SP’s really can consistently go 7+ IP (some even 6 IP+)

·        RISK of Playoff hopes being derailed by an Injury to a current SP, Yates, or Stammen are now more “real”

·        Opportunity cost.  If Pads wait too long & an injury makes such a trade more of a necessity than an attempt to improve, the cost to make a trade would likely rise.

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 9, 2019, 1:06 pm

With Clevinger out 3 months, think Indians are out re trading until at/near deadline.

But I can see Pads waiting till early May, seeing where they're at, and starting to make pre-emptive calls so teams know if they may want some of our juicy system in trade, they might have to do so sooner than later.

Obvious "Rentals" I see are Madison Bumgarner (12 MM) & Marcus Stroman (7.5 MM).  I definitely prefer Bumgarner.

Any others on obvious/likely bad teams?

Quote from fenn68 on April 9, 2019, 2:54 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on April 9, 2019, 1:06 pm

With Clevinger out 3 months, think Indians are out re trading until at/near deadline.

But I can see Pads waiting till early May, seeing where they're at, and starting to make pre-emptive calls so teams know if they may want some of our juicy system in trade, they might have to do so sooner than later.

Obvious "Rentals" I see are Madison Bumgarner (12 MM) & Marcus Stroman (7.5 MM).  I definitely prefer Bumgarner.

Any others on obvious/likely bad teams?

I expect that Preller has been making those calls on an on-going basis .... other teams just are not ready to make a move unless it is a block buster offer (i.e. gross overpay) and OK with taking this to July to get as many contenders in  play as possible for the highest  return (in their view).

Would guess Preller opts for a "less than elite" option as an innings eater for a "minimal" price sometime in May/June to bridge until a) they determine if they are really in contention and b) the better player become available in late June/July. Admittedly "overpay" is subjective but don't see going the route in almost all circumstance except if that is the apparent last piece in a legit pennant chase ... doubt the is the 2019 scenario for the Padres.

Quote from LynchMob on May 11, 2019, 7:42 am

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat-5-10-19/

12:44

Pat: If San Diego is contending in July, is a guy like Matthew Boyd a potential target? Seems like he would be a great fit in Petco, has 3+ years of control. What would they likely need to give up to pull it off?

12:46

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s a pretty good fit, yeah. three years of a 2-war guy probably gets you a 45/50 FV type of prospect, at least. Some of those upper-level OFs like Franchy would seem like good fits there. Detroit has time to let them play and develop vs big league arms but they’re under team control for long enough that they might be around when DET is good again

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 14, 2019, 1:07 pm

So I know this is premature but I've been thinking about it.

Especially with there still being rumors that we may be in the market to trade for a Starting Pitcher.

What is our 2020 rotation gonna look like and where will all of those who don't make the opening day rotation play?

We will have in ST fighting for the 5 spots.....Paddack,Luchessi,Lauer,Strahm,Margevicious,Richards,Lamet,Quantrill,Allen,Nix,Kennedy,Avila,Perdomo,Mitchell.

This isn't even considering Gore,Morejon and Patino who may have an outside shot and forcing their way into the rotation(doubtful).

So I guess my question is....."if" we trade for another starter it won't be for a one year rental I wouldn't think......so that would add yet another.

What the heck we gonna do?

 

 

Quote from 84padres on May 14, 2019, 3:38 pm

according tp Buster Olney the Padres would be the top landing spot for a Madison Bumgarner trade. What would be an acceptable trade for haif year of MadBum? I know it depends on our record but lets say we are in the thick of wild card at deadline. Naylor and Avila ? less ? Would you rather have M Boyd with more control and less cost ?

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 14, 2019, 4:08 pm

That’s the dilemma.

We have so many arms coming......do we want to pay “more” for a guy with 2-3 years control?

But if we trade for a guy like MadBum and don’t make the playoffs.....do we want to lose a guy like Naylor for that?

 

Quote from Alex Tamayo on May 14, 2019, 5:34 pm

Quote from David Nevin on May 14, 2019, 4:08 pm

That’s the dilemma.

We have so many arms coming......do we want to pay “more” for a guy with 2-3 years control?

But if we trade for a guy like MadBum and don’t make the playoffs.....do we want to lose a guy like Naylor for that?

 

I hear you Mr P, I have seen too much of our talent thrive in other teams, I rather stick with what we have, part or us having this minor league system is taking advantage of teams in need of a small upgrade at the deadline and getting good young players in return