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Potential frontline SP trade

But at the same time there comes a time that “we” become that team competing and in need of a small upgrade.

If we truly end up with 12 legit options as starters maybe it’s time to trade a few.

Quantity for quality?

This is why I’ve brought this up.....the tide may be changing on our strategy?

 

Quote from David Nevin on May 14, 2019, 6:35 pm

But at the same time there comes a time that “we” become that team competing and in need of a small upgrade.

If we truly end up with 12 legit options as starters maybe it’s time to trade a few.

Quantity for quality?

This is why I’ve brought this up.....the tide may be changing on our strategy?

 

I absolutely positively think Pads have to look forward.  ANY of the LHP (but Strahm & Gore) are simply not going to be as important to next year's team as this year's because of the (hopefully) return of Lamet & Garrett Richards.  IF those 2 both are anything close to their best in 2020, all 4 LHP below are fighting for last 1 (or 2 if 6-man rotation; real possibility) spot in rotation, but Gore, Morejon & a few others will be banging on door too.

There's no way I can think of where you have: Lucchessi, Lauer, Logan Allen & Margevicius all in a playoff caliber rotation at the same time.  To me, one (or more) of their youth, low cost, & long control is an extremely logical piece in a trade for a BETTER QUALITY MLB SP.  It's a logical part of an exchange where the team trading the better player is trying to save $, get younger, but also needs to backfill innings at the MLB level.  Now do you trade 4 years of Lucchessi for 1/2 year of MadBum? No.

There's just too much focus on, for some reason trying to retain all of our depth/prospects, which isn't really possible.  With SP's I'd much rather have 4-5 elite guys with a huge quality dropoff after that than 12 #4 or 5 MLB SP's that are all interchangeable.  I get the blowback in beginning of year on 3,4,5 for 1 trade ideas... frankly, many of my ideas look horrible 1.5 months into the season.   But eventually as team settles on who is a part of a PLAYOFF caliber team, that type of move is how you improve the quality of the 25 guys on your active roster... especially the 8-10 who are going to primarily determine your team's success.

Ask Red Sox fans how they feel about giving up 4 "elite" prospects for Craig Kimbrel... and a couple of World Series titles.  Everyone will say, "we're not there yet", and they're right.  But we are getting closer & closer to being 1-2 key pieces away from being an elite team.

I know this is out of left field but what would you give up for Scherzer ? 2 and a half years left ,Nats stink . I think he is owed 15 mil a year from 2022 till 2028 making his salary 15 mil. lets say Nats pick up a large if not all of defered money, Would you give up Gore? Paddock ? I'm not saying I would but what is a true ace worth at 15 mil a year ?

While the Nats would expect them and that may be fair to expect one of Gore or Paddack I just don't see any way we trade either

of them.

You may be looking at 6-10 years of TOR starter for both these kids...is that worth a guaranteed 2 years of Sherzer?

I'd say just about any combination of prospects "not" including Tatis/Gore/Paddack would be the way to go.

Include Weathers...or Patino....or Morejon if necessary.

 

He is not really at $15M per year, there is monies that are deferred and who would be responsible for that. More interesting since he could opt out after the 2020 season, what would give up to get Strasburg. Another interesting option, since they are not willing to go over the luxury tax would be a trade of some players and money to loosen their load towards the LT.  Perhaps something like Strasburg, Sanchez, and Eaton for Myers, Jank, Luchesi/or/Lauer, Patino/or/Baez, and Morejon/or/Weathers.

Quote from 84padres on May 23, 2019, 11:32 am

I know this is out of left field but what would you give up for Scherzer ? 2 and a half years left ,Nats stink . I think he is owed 15 mil a year from 2022 till 2028 making his salary 15 mil. lets say Nats pick up a large if not all of defered money, Would you give up Gore? Paddock ? I'm not saying I would but what is a true ace worth at 15 mil a year ?

84, you beat me to the punch "finding" Scherzer!   I would not trade Gore, Paddack, or Tatis for anyone.

But there is a lot more to say about Scherzer...

Nats may be most disappointing team in baseball.  Scherzer is an utterly unique trade candidate for many reasons:

  1. Extremely funky salary structure = NO actual cash due until 2022 or 2023!  Scherzer signed a 7 yr/ 210 MM deal running 2015 - 2021.  But it is structured in such a way that he is actually PAID 15 MM/yr from 2015 - 2028.  The 15 MM he is actually receiving in 2019-2021 is all part of his 50 MM signing bonus; which Nats would presumably remain on the hook for in a trade.  His remaining contract however, is 35 MM/yr from 2019-2021; payable to him as 15 MM /yr from 2022-2028.

A simple way of thinking about it is:  Nats are paying Scherzer 1 MM (actually more) for every start he makes (or doesn't) from Opening Day 2019 on.  Every 15 starts = another year of him receiving 15 MM down the road.  So far Nats owe him 10 MM+ in 2022.  If a team traded for him after 15 starts, he would "only" have 90 MM remaining on his deal @ 15 MM/yr 2023-2028!

2.  He does NOT have any No-trade clause; but becomes 10 & 5 player after 2019 (gains full no trade rights)   So for Nats it is 2019 or never (complete loss of control/leverage) to deal him.  It's notable that if he were dealt, he would obviously NOT get 10 & 5 rights with the new team, so he would remain possible to trade in the future.  For Padres specifically this is interesting, as his value this year &  next might be much higher than in 2021 as Top SP's on the Farm flow to MLB.

3.  His salary for PAYROLL purposes in 2019-2021 is in the 27-30 MM/year range.  This means some higher payroll teams who would love to have him for "free" over the next 2+ years may be challenged to do it due to current or upcoming luxury tax ramifications.  His weird contract has no ramifications to the Padres payroll in 2019-2021.  The 95 MM & shrinking (literally by $200K/day!) $ owed in 2022/23-2028 will have already been accounted for  & will not count against any team's payroll in those years.  Clearing Scherzer's "salary" in last 3 years against their payroll may be extremely significant to the Nats.

Come on!  No takers?  Or at least harassment of the idea?   Food for thought:

1) Trade ("Consolidate" some MLB & prospect/s SP's) for Scherzer.  Est 90 MM in future cost payable 2023-2028.  $0 cost in 2019-2022.  $15 MM/yr begins after Scherzer is gone, but also Myers $20 MM/yr gone, and Hosmer either drops from 20 MM to $13 MM/yr or opts out.  2023 actually the last guaranteed year of even Machado @ $30 MM; 2024 is his opt out year....

2) Separately Salary dump trade Myers.  Return irrelevant.  To entice a team, how about:  Pads eat half front-loaded i.e. 15/10/5 MM from 2020-2022.  Acquiring team gets 3.5 yrs + option on Myers for about:  1.5 MM (1/2 2019 SALARY) / 5 MM / 10 MM / 15 MM / 1 MM buyout (vs 20 MM).  3.5 yrs for 32.5 MM  for his Pop, speed, defensive versatility??  Thoughts?  This assumes Cordero &/or Jankowski are back in MLB to help cover CF.

Pads would have gained Scherzer, lost Myers + others in trade for Scherzer, and actually saved a nominal amount of $ in 2019, increasing to 5 MM saved in 2020...

3)   Trade mid or offseason or FA?:  Stud CF.  Plenty of power to go around on team.  Need OBP!  Just looking for someone better offensively than Margot, defensively/OBP than Cordero!   $0 "while he's there" cost for Scherzer + savings on Myers + few other glaring needs due to Farm = Room to spend on CF NOW vs spending 8 figures/year now on veteran SP leaving no $ now to solve CF.  In other words, getting Scherrzer also allows taking on a significant FA or trade contract for a CF too.

 

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on May 29, 2019, 11:04 am

Come on!  No takers?  Or at least harassment of the idea?   Food for thought:

1) Trade ("Consolidate" some MLB & prospect/s SP's) for Scherzer.  Est 90 MM in future cost payable 2023-2028.  $0 cost in 2019-2022.  $15 MM/yr begins after Scherzer is gone, but also Myers $20 MM/yr gone, and Hosmer either drops from 20 MM to $13 MM/yr or opts out.  2023 actually the last guaranteed year of even Machado @ $30 MM; 2024 is his opt out year....

2) Separately Salary dump trade Myers.  Return irrelevant.  To entice a team, how about:  Pads eat half front-loaded i.e. 15/10/5 MM from 2020-2022.  Acquiring team gets 3.5 yrs + option on Myers for about:  1.5 MM (1/2 2019 SALARY) / 5 MM / 10 MM / 15 MM / 1 MM buyout (vs 20 MM).  3.5 yrs for 32.5 MM  for his Pop, speed, defensive versatility??  Thoughts?  This assumes Cordero &/or Jankowski are back in MLB to help cover CF.

Pads would have gained Scherzer, lost Myers + others in trade for Scherzer, and actually saved a nominal amount of $ in 2019, increasing to 5 MM saved in 2020...

3)   Trade mid or offseason or FA?:  Stud CF.  Plenty of power to go around on team.  Need OBP!  Just looking for someone better offensively than Margot, defensively/OBP than Cordero!   $0 "while he's there" cost for Scherzer + savings on Myers + few other glaring needs due to Farm = Room to spend on CF NOW vs spending 8 figures/year now on veteran SP leaving no $ now to solve CF.  In other words, getting Scherrzer also allows taking on a significant FA or trade contract for a CF too.

 

 

 

I cannot envision the Nats trading Scherzer or Strasburg in light of losing Harper. Two guys who are available are Danny Duffy and Stroman.  Would either really make that much difference on this team? I don't think so.   Could add vet at deadline, but that's about it I think. Remember this is not a "real" contention year so limited prospect capital will be expended.

Myers hate is so mistaken.  This guy is part of the solution, not the problem.  His defense is vastly improved with more assertive play in both CF and LF.  He's slumping, relax.  Best athlete on the field not named Tatis.

Or Machado. However, he has been in a slump for what, 2.5 years now? Combine that with the fact that he is bumping into upper echelon of pay next year, and he is definitely part of the problem.