Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2019, 11:22 am

I guess Boston did not see it as an overpay as a contender getting a 27 year old elite SP (4.9 WAR with CWS) on a decent contract. In the two years Sale has had WARs of 7.7 and 6.5 and was a key to two AL East pennants and a World Series championship. They still have Sale (at age 30 next season) on a favorable contract and are aligned to win again. Think they are happy with the deal.

Have to give quality to get quality so likely CWS are happy with Moncada's progression ... he played his first full season in 2018 and delivered a 2.0 WAR (although his wRC+ was only 98). With 5 more years of control, who knows but CWS were not going anywhere in 2017 so a pure futures bet. Kopech ... still a dice roll on him.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 22, 2019, 6:48 pm

Nope... won't let it go.   Re: Pads & Indians talking SP trade...

•  The Indians have 2 goals:  1) Win NOW, 2) Reduce Payroll.  IMO it's inarguable that FENN is right that Indians need what they perceive is More or at least Equal but "better balanced" WAR back or no deal.  So this is not a 4 prospects for MLB SP deal; MLB pieces have to be involved.  However, I disagree with his assessment that Myers is categorically not an option due to his salary.  I am assuming that Mejia (Indians) & Hedges (Pads) are not options in a deal.
• Indians needs are: 1) OF, 2) Bullpen, 3) Backfill SP, 4) C
• Because it's impossible to know how "motivated" the Indians are to cut $$, I'm putting a "cheap" and an "expensive" path; may end up in-between.
• I can't think of a possible scenario than the one the Pads find themselves in with SP experience/youth/health/innings limitations... that is better suited for a modified 6-man rotation in 2019 & ESPECIALLY 2020 (with the 26th man).
• I would take Trevor Bauer in a second talent-wise, but definitely less thrilled with the idea of his spreading his contract views through the average age 22 dugout, plus really prefer Kluber's 3 years control.

"Cheap":   Renfroe OR Reyes, Maton OR Wingenter, Lucchesi/Lauer/ OR L. Allen, Austin Allen AND Hudson Potts

The sole issue with this deal from Pads perspective would be taking on all of Kluber's contract with no offset.  Would take them into 135 MM territory in 2019, but IMO a legit Wild card contender.  But can make a surprisingly convincing argument Indians would consider it with so much control over those young guys.  Before all the spluttering begins about giving up one of our 5 SP's in 2019; next year: 1) Kluber, 2) G. Richards, 3) Lamet, 4) Strahm (do NOT trade Strahm!), 5) Paddack, 6).... 1 of the 2 remaining LHP plus Baez, Margevicius, etc.  When you just say "5 for 1" it sounds like a lot, but every guy here is either blocked, upgraded, or the replacement is already on hand.

"Expensive":   Myers (Pads pay 6 MM: 2 MM 20-22), Yates, LH SP and Austin Allen as above (No Potts).

Remember Myers is only 3 MM base in 2019.  + Yates 3 MM Indians save 11 MM in 2019.  Pads kicking in a little equalizes Myers & Kluber's deals; Indians just getting (taking on) 1 additional year.  Indians payroll would net increase by Yates salary in 2020, be exactly equal to what it is now in 2021, + 18 MM in 2022.  Probably a better chance of =/better WAR, but less control of the RP.  More a 2 year go for it, but get a new SP & Myers isn't old in 2 years with 2/36 remaining.  Less prospect/s due to more proven MLB players.  Weakens Pads pen & OF; shifts those areas younger instead of the SP being so extremely young/inexperienced.

Quote from fenn68 on March 23, 2019, 7:44 am

Just guessing the the Indians financial situation here but prior to 2017 they have not gone above $100MM ... really extended themselves into the $130MM range for 2017-18 to win but did not get the attendance boost they would have hoped for ... so heading back towards the $100MM range is likely a target. They are about $115MM in 2019 but Kipnis is a FA after the season but that will be more than offset by what should be BIG arbitration decisions on Lindor and Bauer. So even a Myers / Yates deal would send them likely in the opposite direction.

If I am Cleveland with a prime trade chip likely sought by a lot of well healed teams ... would hold out until I got full salary relief AND some quality ML pieces. In the interim, would use prospects to get a serviceable upgrade in the OF.

Don't really think the Padres have that impact player to headline a deal for Kluber given Cleveland's situation where a volume of "nice" players / prospects is not enough to what other clubs could offer.

Quote from Brian Connelly on March 24, 2019, 10:32 am

Don't really think the Padres have that impact player to headline a deal for Kluber given Cleveland's situation where a volume of "nice" players / prospects is not enough to what other clubs could offer.

But who does?  Since Indians need to improve TOTAL MLB WAR by > Kluber, no team with aims of contending that might be interested is going to offer a single MLB player of that caliber; that would be an All Star caliber guy.  Can't think of another team with the obvious rotation need, ability to add to payroll (?), and multiple available MLB pieces at areas of need for Indians, not to mention ultra-talented & deep Farm

Many arguments "against" of course:

1)  Realistically, the top 5 of our Farm are off limits, since 4 are/will be in MLB imminently, and 5th is Gore = "No".  Makes actual "Available" Farm system much weaker; maybe still 10-15 range with 3 top 100 prospects + all the depth.

2)  Timing unlikely for both teams.  What would the effect on team chemistry be to trade out 3,4 MLB players this late in camp.  Preller did it before with Kimbrel, but that was a very different situation involving exchange of dead $ contracts taking on dead $ M. Upton.  And while the standalone trade worked, that team obviously never came together.

3)  Definite argument to be made that the Pads are better off with Myers, Yates, & whoever is #5 then with Kluber.  I still think team is extremely vulnerable in SP but...

4)  ...Could re-visit at deadline.  Even if "out" of contention at deadline, Pads clearly going for it in 2020+ so picture of who's available could look completely different @ deadline & Pads could get aggressive then for a good SP that's not a rental.

5)  Specific Pads assets have declined in value (ahem... Renfroe).  This is the risk of not trading from areas of strength.  Hopefully Renfroe gets it rolling & looks like he did 2nd 1/2 last year.  But if he doesn't, we lost his peak trade value.  ONE of Reyes or Renfroe's values was inevitably going to drop after this Spring since competing for 1 spot.

Quote from fenn68 on March 24, 2019, 12:20 pm

Agree that no team is going to give the Indians what they want for Kluber (or Bauer) while they still have visions of the playoffs in 2019-20. Plus with no clear opposition to their winning the AL Central in either of those two years hard to see the Indians being out of contention in either of those years.

Makes me think Kluber or Bauer will not be on the market (or traded) at the trade deadline and questionable next winter (maybe Bauer with only 1 year control left). Tribe gets some salary relief after the season with Kipnis a FA offseting arb increases for Bauer and Lindor ... at least in part.

Sort of writing off Kluber as a Padre ... but expect Preller to keep calling.

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 29, 2019, 2:19 pm

Suddenly I have this feeling we shouldn't let this thread disappear into the back pages.

Maybe it's my Bursitis flaming up but I just have this feeling in my bones we are about to acquire an arm.

 

Quote from dusty on March 29, 2019, 2:36 pm

Quote from David Nevin on March 29, 2019, 2:19 pm

Suddenly I have this feeling we shouldn't let this thread disappear into the back pages.

Maybe it's my Bursitis flaming up but I just have this feeling in my bones we are about to acquire an arm.

 

Does this feeling have anything to do with the news that Morejon was scratched today? Anybody have insight as to why he was scratched?

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 29, 2019, 2:40 pm

Yes.

Along with a rumor on Twitter.....and my gut.....and we have a guy who should be in AA going Saturday.

Maybe Bumgarner just stays in S.D.?

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on April 1, 2019, 10:43 am

If we sign Kuechel do we lose the #6 pick in the first round or is it protected?