Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2018, 12:29 pm

Actually, Myers $17MM increase is covered by a lot of dead money coming off the books with Gyorko, C.Richard, Makita, and Hughes providing a convenient $17MM.

Since I suspect Keuchel could nail a $80MM / 4 year deal without "conditions" ... not sure tagging in vesting in the out years would appeal to Boras.

However, Boras did do some creativity with Hosmer's contract (although he was younger) .... 5 years high AAV ($21MM) - player opt out - 2 years very low AAV. (actually baring a total melt down would expect Hosmer to opt out after 5 years and not drop to $13MM/year for his last two).

Same logic with Keuchel? 4 years with a $20MM AAV ... opt out provision ... 5th year $16MM. 5th year is really an insurance policy for Keuchel. Full no trade for first 4 years (Hosmer got full no trade for first 5 years).

Think Boras is more in the drivers seat with all the potential buyers ... so not likely he will accept any conditions that could disadvantage his client. Would be different if he was coming off a series of recent injuries.

Quote from Booster SD on December 28, 2018, 1:00 pm

I think we are both on the same page with the AAV being in that 18-20M range. I would, as a GM, with a player in his 30's prefer to front load the contract with higher dollars. That way, the player still gets his money; however, as the younger players hit arb years and the older player declines, you still have dollars to use both for the better kids and any future FA you may need to sing to plug a hole here or there since no team can hit on every prospect and position. And if we no longer need Keuchel in years 4 and 5 if we have better, younger, cheaper pitchers you can hopefully move Keuchel easier with little to no money being eaten by SD. Boras should be on board with that since his ML player still gets his money and the younger Boras clients of SD can get theirs as the approach arbitration.

So 24M, 22M, 20M, 16M, 14M. 5 years and $96M.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 31, 2018, 1:31 pm

Kikuchi will choose his team in the next few days, which might put Keuchel in a great spot as last "difference maker" SP out there vs. extreme Sellers' Market for SP's by Trade.  I don't see NYY backing down on their demands for Gray.  They can just hang onto him as swingman/6th SP and sooner or later in season a contender will suffer an injury & get desperate.   Same logic holds for the other trade target SP's like Stroman (could increase his value by bouncing back) and Kluber (why trade him unless blown away).

IF this theory is correct, the guy whose value I think has to & will come down is Realmuto.  A C is different than a P; can't' just plug him into the lineup; needs to work with & learn all the P's... just a much less likely deadline trade.   Injury risk, etc.  I feel like everyone knows Miami "has to" trade him...  Interesting then that Pads remain the "most engaged" team on him...

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 31, 2018, 2:30 pm

Do we really "want" Realmuto or do we just want him in order to facilitate another trade?

I'm thinking another team either wants Realmuto or they want Hedges or Mejia.

Otherwise it just doesn't make that much sense to me.

What good is two years of a better offensive Catcher as opposed to the long term assets like Hedges and Mejia?

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2018, 4:06 pm

I too am struggling with the Realmuto interest given what clearly it will cost (in prospects) for the future or as chips in other trades.

I guess at the base may be what the organization thinks of Hedges (4 years control) and Mejia (6 years control) for the future along with their projections on A.Allen, Torrens, and Campusano. Then couple that with what Preller "knows" is out there in the form of trades for a catcher this winter.

IF they really like Mejia (and that is not a slam dunk), adding the #1 catcher in MLB and dealing Hedges who has apparently drawn interest ... might makes sense. Realmuto is #1 ... Mejia learns as the back-up for 1 or 2 years and then steps in. Do get the sense that Mejia as #1 NOW is out of the question with his need for defensive improvement and plate discipline improvement. In that scenario, Realmuto is > Hedges for the next two years so the question moves to who is dealt to get Realmuto and who is received for Hedges ... can be they give up more than they receive with the difference in value going to the upgrade at catcher for the Padres. Sort of makes sense depending on the value of the other pieces balancing out. Plus if Mejia comes along sooner (with Allen the back-up) they can re-deal Realmuto and get some assets back (or a QO gets a draft pick).

Cleary Miami has to come down from their demands to everyone ... since even the very needy contenders are not moved to make the deal. At this point Miami is still locked in on Players A, B, C while Preller is offering Players C, D, E, F ... basically going volume of quality but NOT ELITE (Tatis / Gore / probably Paddack / Mejia off the table and some of his other favorites). Padres have more ammo .... so if no other teams breaks (or Miami just is willing to wait it out) ... could happen later than sooner.

Or, could be simpler and they just flip Realmuto for Kluber with some misc. pieces tossed around. Never know if something like that is setting ready IF Preller strikes.

Maybe they honestly don't like what they see in Mejia (doubt they would admit that but) maybe if they acquire Realmuto ... then sign Ellis as the back-up ... the trade BOTH Hedges and Mejia for whatever other holes they want to fill and gamble on A.Allen or Torrens to step in in two years ... we don't know what they project with them either. A lot of demand for catchers ... maybe cornering the market and dealing both nets a return much greater than spent on Realmuto.

I clearly don't know what I don't know.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 31, 2018, 6:36 pm

Not sure why they would suddenly not like what they see in Mejia?

Clearly they liked what they saw when they traded for him.

Scouts obviously had eyes on him for awhile....it’s not like they only have the short time he has been with us to form their opinion of him.Plus he looked pretty good during that short time IMO.

It could be that they just got him because he was the best value for Hand and would be fine with trading him.

But I doubt they would have an issue going forward with his bat on a team desperate for offense.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 14, 2019, 6:42 pm

With the Kluber / Padres smoke rising again...  I skimmed back through this thread.  Originally compared Syndergaard to Chris Sale PROSPECT cost:   #1 prospect in MLB, large amount of $ (est 10 MM), another top 100 prospect (#67), good not great (i.e. 2019 Pads) system #8 and  #28 prospects.   It's debate-able which P is better, but Sale was definitely more consistently healthy when he was traded.

When Mets made their big move for Cano & Edwin Diaz, it became obvious they would only consider trading Thor for MLB pieces.  Same has always been true of Cleveland & their SP's.  In it to win it now not later.

In the meantime, this trade happened:  NYY got 2 years of James Paxton for:  #31 overall prospect Sheffield, good not great system #20-30 range SP/RP prospect Swanson, and older upside unranked OF prospect Thompson-Williams.  (In Seattle's "was awful, but rapidly improving" system, these guys are: #1, #11, and #16 respectively)

In my mind, it's pretty clear that:  Sale at time of trade slightly > Syndergaard who is significantly > (age, lower cost) Kluber who is significantly > Paxton (3 yrs control vs. 2, healthier, more accomplished).   It's also fair to say that rebuilding teams (Sale, Paxton) might take slightly less in trade knowing they have to "cash in" their asset at peak value, whereas contending teams have to be blown away to make the trade at all.

IF parsing PROSPECT cost to get Kluber, it would be relatively easy to figure out:  something < Sale  but  > Paxton.   It's trying to convert this into some or even all MLB assets that makes it harder....

 

Quote from Cptjack on January 15, 2019, 5:03 am

Just to make it a bit more confusing.

Yankees were a top heavy, old, bad system. Some scouts didn't even like the top (Sheffield) and had him as a bubble top 100 guy.

The Sale deal was an overpay if you actually valued the prospects at those slots. (Kopech was around 30 after returning and throwing 102)

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 15, 2019, 7:44 am

Quote from Cptjack on January 15, 2019, 5:03 am

Just to make it a bit more confusing.

Yankees were a top heavy, old, bad system. Some scouts didn't even like the top (Sheffield) and had him as a bubble top 100 guy.

The Sale deal was an overpay if you actually valued the prospects at those slots. (Kopech was around 30 after returning and throwing 102)

Find me a Red Sox fan who cares...

But I get your point... many thought the return for Paxton was too low, but it exactly met Seattle's needs:  "elite"  LH SP prospect to hopefully replace Paxton soon.  Lesser SP/RP prospect to eat some innings.  Another interesting guy good enough to be top 20 in their barren system.

I guess the overriding point of all this is you want to be the Red Sox or Yankees (Buyers)  not the White Sox or Mariners (Sellers); getting the piece to put/keep you at very top contending level.  Once Mets decided they were Red Sox /Yankees, chance of getting Thor kind of vanished.