Quote from ramrodd on December 13, 2018, 4:39 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 13, 2018, 3:14 pm

Can the Pads get the mega 3-team deal across the finish line?  They don't really have any leverage over the Marlins, b/c everybody wants Realmuto so badly, BUT they have 2 things no other team does: 1) 2 catchers they could offer back  and 2) can out "quantity" anyone on the prospect front, which Marlins would presumably be OK with as some of the return.

However, Pads do have a weird kind of leverage over the Mets IMO, b/c if we just deal directly with the Marlins & get R with 1 of our C's going back in deal, that takes Mets main target AND another potential trade target off market, forcing Mets to look elsewhere...  likely Grandal.    So with this in mind, the 2 obvious questions are:

1)  What is the 'direct cost' (2 team trade) for Realmuto?  Using Reds rumor of C Barnhart & #17 MLB prospect OF Trammel a good start.  Direct comp = Hedges & Mejia OR Urias (#26/27)- NO.  But our guys are MLB ready; Trammel likely AA this year.  Hedges arguably > Barnhart:  worse offensively, but way better defensively & way more upside.  So lots of options:    Hedges + Logan Allen?   I think Mejia is best fit for Marlins though... Mejia + Patino + Erlin?

2)  What is the "cost difference" between 3 years of Syndergaard & 2 years of Realmuto?   These 2 players WAR for 2018 & Career look identical.  In theory 1 more year of Thor thus = "half" of the above cost.  Way more complex than that; his WAR/yr could increase, but then so would his arb salaries... safe bet he is at 20 MM in 3rd year = not as much "value" as 1st or 2nd year where his & JTR value/cost closely match...

Pads get:  Thor,  "50" grade prospect from Marlins, & bottom of 40-man from Mets

Mets get:  Realmuto, Renfroe, Lucchesi, Yates, "50" grade prospect from Marlins

Marlins get:  Mejia("55"+), Patino ("55"), Erlin, "45" grade prospect from Mets

I know Marlins want an OF from Mets, but complicates things...

Mejia & Patino become #1 & 2 prospects for Marlins.  Return/distance from MLB feels right.  Don't see anyone topping a top 25-50, a top 100, and 2 yrs cheap control MLB RP/SP.

5 years of Renfroe & Lucchessi + 2 of Yates for that last year of Syndergaard feels high, but offset by a good prospect in #11-25 range in our system?  I would do it.

Immediately re-sign AJ Ellis to backup Hedges again for 2 MM.  6 (Thor) + 2 = 8 - 3 (Yates) = + 5 MM Net to 2019 payroll.

SET at SP, C, OF (Myers to LF).  15 MM+ and still top 3-5 Farm system (trade/s?) remaining to address:  3B, SS, Bullpen

 

 

Padres do not trade Patino or Paddack last year for Cobb. I wouldn't give up Patino.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 13, 2018, 6:15 pm

LOVE the debate guys!   Thor (& Realmuto) was worth 4 WAR last year in "only" 25 starts / 154 IP.  He projects pretty easily to 5-6/year healthy & he's WAY below market cost.  You have to give SOMEthing to get this... no one wants to touch any of our TEN top 100 guys, but the reality is that's the trade capital you have to deal in to get a guy of this caliber!!

Compare the Realmuto offer to what has been discussed with Reds & Marlins, and know there's 4 other teams besides Reds in on JTR incl Mets who obviously desperately want him.  Fair to roughly "=" JTR & Thor the first 2 years, but that still leaves a 3rd year of a 4 -6 WAR type player at est 20 MM cost to account for, so...

Tatis Jr:   I was going to say Logan Allen, then switched to Patino b/c giving up a LHP from MLB to Mets.  You're offering way more than I did for JTR...  but you're a little too low annually & esp for that last year of Thor.  Mets want JTR, but have to feel compelled to make the trade.

3 finger:  Easy to criticize if you don't post an alternative!  Assume JTR plus what else?

David:  I include Renfroe b/c RH OF a position of strength for us (i.e. Pads may trade an OF, likely Renfroe, ANYWAY), as is MLB/ready SP and C, AND b/c it's a Mets goal.  I fully get that Realmuto + Yates + Renfroe + Lucchesi IS > WAR than just Thor the 1st 2 years... BUT I don't think the Mets pull the trigger on Thor unless it IS something like that.

There are a lot of reasons it still makes sense for the Pads though:

1.  Fills the biggest need.  Legit opening day starter day 1; pushes all the SP competitors to a more appropriate place in rotation they are more likely to succeed.  Long enough bridge to the next Ace already in the system... just a matter of who
2. Below market cost for 3 years.  Net increase of only 3 MM to payroll in 2019 leaves a lot of $$ to address remaining needs.
3. Possible Modified 6-man rotation in 2019 & 2020?  With Paddack, Strahm, Mitchell, then Lamet, then Garret Richards on limited innings, is it possible Thor could make regular starts while others operate on an extra day of rest?
4. REALLY contending in 2020 not "hoping to".  Might another key FA lean our way this year or more likely next due to this?
5. Resolves playing time logjams.  Mejia needs to play to develop; but is blocked by Hedges.  Might play some in LF; but we have 4 corner OF's ahead of him.  Could option to AAA; where he would block Austin Allen who needs to play... etc....   This is subtle but very real.
6. "Wil Myers-LF", not "Wil Myers- ??".
7. Heart of system intact:   Keep Tatis, Jr, Gore, & Urias who are the 3 most important prospects to the Pads.
8. Trading SP prospects is inevitable:  Some guys will obviously fail/get hurt, etc, but:  Gore, Paddack, Lucchesi, Lauer, Quantrill, Morejon, Baez, Patino, Logan Allen, David Weathers, Reggie Lawson, Anderson Espinoza, etc, etc, can't ALL be in a 5-man rotation!  Can't even all be a rotation + a bullpen.  Instead of low leverage "have to" trades; get as much value as possible by trading quantity for quality.

 

 

Quote from Cptjack on December 14, 2018, 12:37 pm

What purpose does acquiring Syndergaard serve?

Quote from Booster SD on December 14, 2018, 12:44 pm

Quote from Cptjack on December 14, 2018, 12:37 pm

What purpose does acquiring Syndergaard serve?

A top of the rotation pitcher for 3 years, pitched in one of the toughest markets in MLB, and can show the young guys how to be ML pitchers while performing on the mound. Gives you someone that can hold his own against either Greinke or Kershaw as well. Some injury history, but better than anyone on SD now or the next 2 years IMO.

Quote from Cptjack on December 14, 2018, 1:31 pm

Quote from Booster SD on December 14, 2018, 12:44 pm

A top of the rotation pitcher for 3 years, pitched in one of the toughest markets in MLB, and can show the young guys how to be ML pitchers while performing on the mound. Gives you someone that can hold his own against either Greinke or Kershaw as well. Some injury history, but better than anyone on SD now or the next 2 years IMO.

Do we not get those things by acquiring him in 2020?

Quote from Booster SD on December 14, 2018, 2:01 pm

Quote from Cptjack on December 14, 2018, 1:31 pm

Quote from Booster SD on December 14, 2018, 12:44 pm

A top of the rotation pitcher for 3 years, pitched in one of the toughest markets in MLB, and can show the young guys how to be ML pitchers while performing on the mound. Gives you someone that can hold his own against either Greinke or Kershaw as well. Some injury history, but better than anyone on SD now or the next 2 years IMO.

Do we not get those things by acquiring him in 2020?

Not really. He is not a FA until after the 2021 season, and then not as his arbitration rates, but the much more expensive FA price that he will command when he hits FA.

If you mean trading for him next offseason, then there would be different teams involved that could/would change the dynamics of the players involved, and possibly not in a good way. Plus, if the NYM even want close to the same quality players next season, then you are losing one year of Thor.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 14, 2018, 2:05 pm

I think everyone understands the timing is a bit peculiar.

But he's available now...no guarantee he will be available in 2020.

Also,maybe Preller is considering we could be competitive earlier than "we" all assume.

Afterall...he knows how thick the wallet is and we don't really.

Lastly....he's the type that is always thinking outside the box and in this case he understands he could always

trade him again.He knows our prospects...he knows our areas of need.

"IF" he can get Thor and only give up guys he wants to give up..... he knows he could then turn around and trade him at next years deadline...or even the one after that and get nearly the same level of prospects back,or even a major league piece,so why not?

Our needs now may not be the same as our needs in 2020.So trade prospects from our areas of good depth now,get an Ace,then trade for pieces to fill areas lacking depth later....and if we are competitive you just keep him.

 

 

Quote from Cptjack on December 14, 2018, 2:48 pm

Quote from Booster SD on December 14, 2018, 2:01 pm

If you mean trading for him next offseason, then there would be different teams involved that could/would change the dynamics of the players involved, and possibly not in a good way. Plus, if the NYM even want close to the same quality players next season, then you are losing one year of Thor.

How are we losing one year of Thor when we don't have a competitive roster in 2019 with or without him? Can the dynamics get worse than the 6-8 man trades being proposed here?

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 14, 2018, 2:59 pm

Quote from Cptjack on December 14, 2018, 2:48 pm

Quote from Booster SD on December 14, 2018, 2:01 pm

If you mean trading for him next offseason, then there would be different teams involved that could/would change the dynamics of the players involved, and possibly not in a good way. Plus, if the NYM even want close to the same quality players next season, then you are losing one year of Thor.

How are we losing one year of Thor when we don't have a competitive roster in 2019 with or without him? Can the dynamics get worse than the 6-8 man trades being proposed here?

Luckily the trades being proposed here don't have anything to do with it.

What's really being discussed we have no idea and nothing has happened because the Mets obviously want more than we are willing to give.

So "if" it happens it will be on our terms....or we "will" wait.

I'm sure this whole Thor exercise is about getting him now IF it makes sense cost wise.

Certainly no reason to not at least discuss deals in case AJ can pry him away at a cost he's willing to pay.

Probably centered around Myers and Hedges or Mejia...and NOT Tatis,Gore,Paddack,Patino etc...

Which is why it hasn't happened.

 

BTW,if the Mets want to make their major league team more competitive for "2019",you would think a package with names like

Myers/Hedges/Yates/Stammen/Margot/Lucchesi/Mejia would make sense.

You would think a combo of some of these guys would make the Mets better right away...as they seem to want to do.