Quote from Brian Connelly on December 11, 2018, 10:06 pm

Mets /Yankees / Marlins 3-way trade talk fizzling...

Now Mets "interested" in Grandal... hmmm.  They've telegraphed pretty clearly they want Realmuto.   Smoke screen to Marlins?

Is it just me or do they seem damned & determined to pull that deal off by the end of the meetings?

Maybe Pads can step in & take a little advantage of Mets frantic-ness?  They're just a better fit in my biased opinion.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 11, 2018, 10:26 pm

Quote from David Nevin on December 11, 2018, 7:39 pm

If you believe Renfroe is the one to keep then you should understand that he may be the one others want.

We have too many corner outfielders.....we can’t just trade the one/s we want....we may have to trade the one/s “others” want.

I think that’s all anyone has tried to c0nvey......

Great point.  SEEMS obvious, but I'm glad you said it, because everyone (understandably) is looking at our prospects this way too:

When trading if can really want to SELL High, Buy Low...  as it relates to our players & prospects, I feel like everyone is urging the opposite.  I admit hypocrisy b/c I've mentioned his name more than once, but Quantrill is a great example of a "selling low" guy... he MIGHT another year off surgery fully regain command & be the guy we hoped when drafted #8...

Stock WAY UP guys:  Paddack, Patino, Buddy Reed

Stock Even guys:  Gore, Urias, Mejia, Morejon,

Stock Down guys:  Baez, Quantrill, Espinoza,

IMO it makes most sense to trade "way up" guys b/c they're simply the most likely to fall back and thus be overrated right now.  Way more involved Pads in depth evaluation I'm sure, but just as an example: Patino thrived in Low-A league/environment that's pitcher friendly; don't KNOW he will do the same at High-A Hitters paradise league.  Will he still be a top 100 guy end of next season?  By contrast, Down guys could all take huge steps forward off injuries and be way more valuable next year this time than they are right now.  Gore the most extreme example; if he/staff have figured out how to avoid blisters & has a big season ending up in AA, his value could be colossal next year; so don't "throw him into" a trade now.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 12, 2018, 4:21 am

Here’s an article about this very subject.....trading prospects while stock is high.

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/12/10/18133919/baseball-trades-prospect-rankings-top-50-busts

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 12, 2018, 9:03 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 11, 2018, 10:06 pm

Mets /Yankees / Marlins 3-way trade talk fizzling...

Now Mets "interested" in Grandal... hmmm.  They've telegraphed pretty clearly they want Realmuto.   Smoke screen to Marlins?

Is it just me or do they seem damned & determined to pull that deal off by the end of the meetings?

Maybe Pads can step in & take a little advantage of Mets frantic-ness?  They're just a better fit in my biased opinion.

Not sure there is anyone I want from the NYM that they would give up for most likely Hedges ... it will not be Syndergaard ... even if other Padre prospects are added unless Tatis is included.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 13, 2018, 1:23 pm

Quote from David Nevin on December 12, 2018, 4:21 am

Here’s an article about this very subject.....trading prospects while stock is high.

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/12/10/18133919/baseball-trades-prospect-rankings-top-50-busts

 

So timely!  Thanks for posting it.  Proves the point that if a team is willing to trade an elite prospect... there is a reason why!

Impossible for me to not think of Wil Myers when reading this... Top 10 prospect traded to Rays, then again to us.  Hmmm....

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 13, 2018, 1:28 pm

Latest On Realmuto: Narrowed Market, 3-Team Possibilities With Mets/Padres

By Jeff Todd | December 13, 2018 at 12:32pm CDT

The Marlins have made some progress in winnowing the field for backstop J.T. Realmuto, per Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald (via Twitter). Still, 6 teams remain involved, per report: the Reds, Mets, Rays, Braves, Dodgers, & Padres.

Certainly, the Mets have been the most visibly aggressive organization to this stage. The New York club has created quite a few off-the-wall possibilities along the way, some of which involve other teams. That makes it relatively unsurprising to hear that they’ve cycled back to prior talks with the Padres regarding Noah Syndergaard in a possible three-team deal, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (Twitter link).

Previously, the Mets reportedly danced around possible deals along these same lines with the Yankees. Also, earlier in the winter, the Mets and Pads were unable to line up on a two-team arrangement that would have sent Syndergaard out west, with the San Diego organization unwilling to part with top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. It seems quite unlikely that Tatis is now available, so presumably other pieces from a loaded Padres farm would be utilized.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 13, 2018, 3:14 pm

Can the Pads get the mega 3-team deal across the finish line?  They don't really have any leverage over the Marlins, b/c everybody wants Realmuto so badly, BUT they have 2 things no other team does: 1) 2 catchers they could offer back  and 2) can out "quantity" anyone on the prospect front, which Marlins would presumably be OK with as some of the return.

However, Pads do have a weird kind of leverage over the Mets IMO, b/c if we just deal directly with the Marlins & get R with 1 of our C's going back in deal, that takes Mets main target AND another potential trade target off market, forcing Mets to look elsewhere...  likely Grandal.    So with this in mind, the 2 obvious questions are:

1)  What is the 'direct cost' (2 team trade) for Realmuto?  Using Reds rumor of C Barnhart & #17 MLB prospect OF Trammel a good start.  Direct comp = Hedges & Mejia OR Urias (#26/27)- NO.  But our guys are MLB ready; Trammel likely AA this year.  Hedges arguably > Barnhart:  worse offensively, but way better defensively & way more upside.  So lots of options:    Hedges + Logan Allen?   I think Mejia is best fit for Marlins though... Mejia + Patino + Erlin?

2)  What is the "cost difference" between 3 years of Syndergaard & 2 years of Realmuto?   These 2 players WAR for 2018 & Career look identical.  In theory 1 more year of Thor thus = "half" of the above cost.  Way more complex than that; his WAR/yr could increase, but then so would his arb salaries... safe bet he is at 20 MM in 3rd year = not as much "value" as 1st or 2nd year where his & JTR value/cost closely match...

Pads get:  Thor,  "50" grade prospect from Marlins, & bottom of 40-man from Mets

Mets get:  Realmuto, Renfroe, Lucchesi, Yates, "50" grade prospect from Marlins

Marlins get:  Mejia("55"+), Patino ("55"), Erlin, "45" grade prospect from Mets

I know Marlins want an OF from Mets, but complicates things...

Mejia & Patino become #1 & 2 prospects for Marlins.  Return/distance from MLB feels right.  Don't see anyone topping a top 25-50, a top 100, and 2 yrs cheap control MLB RP/SP.

5 years of Renfroe & Lucchessi + 2 of Yates for that last year of Syndergaard feels high, but offset by a good prospect in #11-25 range in our system?  I would do it.

Immediately re-sign AJ Ellis to backup Hedges again for 2 MM.  6 (Thor) + 2 = 8 - 3 (Yates) = + 5 MM Net to 2019 payroll.

SET at SP, C, OF (Myers to LF).  15 MM+ and still top 3-5 Farm system (trade/s?) remaining to address:  3B, SS, Bullpen

 

 

Quote from 3fingersplit on December 13, 2018, 3:37 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 13, 2018, 3:14 pm

Can the Pads get the mega 3-team deal across the finish line?  They don't really have any leverage over the Marlins, b/c everybody wants Realmuto so badly, BUT they have 2 things no other team does: 1) 2 catchers they could offer back  and 2) can out "quantity" anyone on the prospect front, which Marlins would presumably be OK with as some of the return.

However, Pads do have a weird kind of leverage over the Mets IMO, b/c if we just deal directly with the Marlins & get R with 1 of our C's going back in deal, that takes Mets main target AND another potential trade target off market, forcing Mets to look elsewhere...  likely Grandal.    So with this in mind, the 2 obvious questions are:

1)  What is the 'direct cost' (2 team trade) for Realmuto?  Using Reds rumor of C Barnhart & #17 MLB prospect OF Trammel a good start.  Direct comp = Hedges & Mejia OR Urias (#26/27)- NO.  But our guys are MLB ready; Trammel likely AA this year.  Hedges arguably > Barnhart:  worse offensively, but way better defensively & way more upside.  So lots of options:    Hedges + Logan Allen?   I think Mejia is best fit for Marlins though... Mejia + Patino + Erlin?

2)  What is the "cost difference" between 3 years of Syndergaard & 2 years of Realmuto?   These 2 players WAR for 2018 & Career look identical.  In theory 1 more year of Thor thus = "half" of the above cost.  Way more complex than that; his WAR/yr could increase, but then so would his arb salaries... safe bet he is at 20 MM in 3rd year = not as much "value" as 1st or 2nd year where his & JTR value/cost closely match...

Pads get:  Thor,  "50" grade prospect from Marlins, & bottom of 40-man from Mets

Mets get:  Realmuto, Renfroe, Lucchesi, Yates, "50" grade prospect from Marlins

Marlins get:  Mejia("55"+), Patino ("55"), Erlin, "45" grade prospect from Mets

I know Marlins want an OF from Mets, but complicates things...

Mejia & Patino become #1 & 2 prospects for Marlins.  Return/distance from MLB feels right.  Don't see anyone topping a top 25-50, a top 100, and 2 yrs cheap control MLB RP/SP.

5 years of Renfroe & Lucchessi + 2 of Yates for that last year of Syndergaard feels high, but offset by a good prospect in #11-25 range in our system?  I would do it.

Immediately re-sign AJ Ellis to backup Hedges again for 2 MM.  6 (Thor) + 2 = 8 - 3 (Yates) = + 5 MM Net to 2019 payroll.

SET at SP, C, OF (Myers to LF).  15 MM+ and still top 3-5 Farm system (trade/s?) remaining to address:  3B, SS, Bullpen

 

 

That is just plain crazy....How many pitchers are you sending away and for what.....a prospect, a bottom of the 40 man roster and ONE starter ?

You are giving up a 25 hr guy(Renfro), the catcher we got for Hand and Cimber(Mejia), a starter (Lucchesi) and closer(Yates) and a long relief or spot starter(Erlin) and a young pitcher that has clocked 100mph(Patino)

That trade would get you fired before the ink was even dry on the deal.......Geez

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 13, 2018, 3:52 pm

I like the thinking but agree it’s a bit high in cost for Padres.

Take out one of Lucchesi/Renfroe/Patino and it’s about right IMO in the cost to the Padres.

Depending on who you remove it may create an issue with one of the other two teams but that’s why the GM makes

the big bucks.

Get creative and add some low level prospects.

We are loaded there as well.....

BTW.....I know I’ve gotten really attached to some of these prospects but unless we get “real value” for Patino I

think trading him now would be selling low.

One more season like last year and he is a top 50 prospect.