Quote from Commie on December 4, 2018, 6:36 pm

I like him as a pitcher for 2019, but what does he really do for the team long term that would justify giving up those two, admittedly, middling prospects?

Much rather those two be sent to COL for his brother by another mother Jon Gray.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 4, 2018, 6:58 pm

The reason to get Gray,other than to just pitch in 2019 is...if he rebounds due to the change of league,scenery,and a little Balsley magic,we could flip him at the deadline for other prospects.

Or,if he pitches well,we get a good season out of him and offer a Qualifying offer....if he takes it we have another starter in 2020...if he doesn’t we gain the draft pick.

Or he pitches badly and we just get a bad season out of him and lose the prospects.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2018, 8:29 am

With Corbin signing with WASH ... Padres will not likely get a legit top of the rotation SP (e.g. Kluber, Syndergaard .. at that level). Consider the arms race in the NL East and AL East:

WASH: Scherzer; Strasburg; Corbin; Roark; J.Ross / Feede

NYM: deGrom; Synergaard; Wheeler; Matz; Vargas

PHIL: Nola; Arrieta; Pivetta; Velasquez; Eflin

ATL: Foltnewicz; Newcomb; Gausman; Teheran; Toussaint

NYY: Severino; Paxton; Tanaka; Sabathia; Gray

BOS: Sale; Price; Porcello; Rodriguez; Wright / Johnson

All those teams are all in for 2019 so expect some heavy action on their parts for boosting their 2019 rosters.

NYM now can't afford trading Syndergaard unless it is a blockbuster for a package of hitters that really don't exist. The key FA will now be even in greater demand: Keuchel; Eovaldi; Happ; Kikuchi ... prices go way up. Trade for Kluber/ Bauer will require more premium ML players and LAD have been poise to deal for one of them.

Looking at those starting 5s ... Philly, Atlanta, NYY, and Boston are poised to pursue more starting pitching and this AM WASH said they are considering more SP.

Philadephia - NYY - Bost have a ton of money and Atlanta has a ton of prospects for a trade ... should be an interesting week or so. Mets might head for adding bats before more pitching ... they have some money and looking at Pollack to fill their CF need and are in heavy negotiations to get Realmuto out of Miami (Nimmo  might go along with prospects).

Padres may have to roll with a full prospect slate in 2019 (actually not bothered by that) ... note that the price for Gray is also rising probably outweighing the flip return at the deadline or a Comp pick.

Lauer - Lucchesi - Strahm - Paddack - Allen by mid-season?

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 5, 2018, 2:44 pm

Fenn, I interpret Corbin signing differently.  The whole basis for starting this thread was I thought Syndergaard & the Mets were in a very similar situation to Chris Sale contract & the White Sox situation years ago when they had good SP but nothing else, decided to trade the SP & rebuild resulting in a BAD MLB team but with one of the very best farm systems...

... obviously the Mets disagree 🙂   Their mega-trade plus Corbin signing with Nats make it inarguable that the likelihood of Syndergaard now being traded to anyone including us, has gone down.  But it's not 0% yet.  Next thing to watch is C position.  If Mets trade for Realmuto or sign Grandal or Wilson Ramos, there is no path to a (Syndergaard) trade with Padres.

But I think the Corbin signing + likelihood Syndergaard stays, just drives up the price of the 5 remaining significant FA SP's (plus Sonny Gray's relative value to a playoff contender only):  #4 Keuchel, #7 Eovaldi, #9 Happ, #12 Kikuchi, #14 Morton (MLBTR ranked by total contract value).  I HOPE the Padres STAY THE HELL AWAY from these guys with POSSIBLE exception of Kikuchi who will have a much lower AAV than the other 4...

...That leaves the Indians & a potential Kluber trade.  The Padres can do 2 things I don't think any of the playoff contending teams can do in combination:  1)  Offer MLB players at Indians positions of need:  OF, Bullpen, C, backfill 200+ MLB SP innings  AND 2) Take on 17 MM in dead $ in the Kipnis contract.  To state the obvious, playoff contending teams need their players & their payroll to build contending teams!

Padres get:  Kluber & Kipnis, possibly an OF or  bottom of 40-man roster.  As proposed, Pads payroll rises about 20 MM net in 2019 to around 100 MM.  But drops 10-15 MM in 2020, drops 7-10 MM in 2021.

Indians get:  Myers (or Reyes or Renfroe), Hedges (or Mejia!), Lucchesi (or ANY SP/prospect but Gore), Yates, Miguel Diaz,  and 10 MM towards Myers contract (3/3/4 in 20-22). Indians save about 20 MM in 2019, "break even" to 3 MM lower in 2020 factoring in Arb raises for Hedges & Yates but 15 MM less outgo (buyout Encarnacion), 2021 payroll 4-7 MM higher than Kluber, 2022 increases maybe + 25-30 MM in Hedges last arb yr.

What I love about the possible trade is there is a lot of flexibility in return to Indians.  Just NO: Tatis, Gore, or Urias.  Unlikely but COULD even keep Myers due to combo of his low 2019 salary + Kipnis: sub Renfroe or Reyes (add a prospect to Cleve)... or even both (Cleve gives a RH OF back).  Want Paddack instead?  Fine, take Robbie Erlin instead of Diaz.  Castillo over Yates?  No Diaz.  Etc, etc.  Even though it seems insane for Mejia to go back, their need in OF is so great, that even if they add an OF, Mejia would have more playing time in OF there than in SD even if Myers gone.

Padres hope the "flip expensive vet" strategy works better with Kipnis than it did with Headley.  Unlikely, but buys another year of service time for Urias at least.  Pads would likely use remaining limited resources to focus on finding:  a SS or 3B (think Galvis, proven ideal mentor to Tatis/Urias), backup C (think A.J. Ellis proven ideal mentor to whoever remains), and some cheap rebound type bullpen arms.  Unlikely, but they COULD outbid anybody for Kikuchi by backloading a contract offer to him (low 2019 salary).... more likely if no trade.

2019 likely rough (again) offensively with so much youth, but ideally enter 2020 set at all/most positions with only 60 MM +/- salary commitments (Hosmer, Kluber, Garret Richards, + last year of dead Kemp/Olivera $, but not Arb salaries; likely only  5-7 guys in 1st or 2nd year)....  maybe 70 MM if + Galvis.   #1-ish Farm intact & arriving; prospects & $$ to spend on any glaring holes, but SP in 2020 looks awesome.

From Indians P.O.V: they're going to win AL Central with or without Kluber, but they can't win World Series with this OF/C.  They  get good 5-6 year control MLB SP who "only" has to be a # 5, substantial bullpen help, and exchange over-30:  Kluber, Kipnis, Brantley & Gomes for less accomplished but in their prime Lucchesi, Myers, & Hedges.  Interesting combo of getting younger while reshaping MLB roster to win now, plus gaining up to $20 MM to redeploy.  Extend Carrasco + add Kikuchi?    I think surplus value of a Lucchesi offsetting some of Kluber's massive surplus value and youth + $ a win for Indians.  Instant Opening Day Starter before ink dries way below market value who can lead the young bucks and "fade" to a #2-3 over contract, resolving "where does he play" Myers situation & contract, and creating clear starter/playing time at C a win for the Pads.  Minor value created by opening roster spots, +1 yr control Urias + potential flip of Kipnis for some $ back.

Summary:  Padres remain best MLB trade partner for Mets but especially Indians for ace SP due to ability to trade MLB assets at their positions of need, and absorb dead $ in 2019 since not contending this year.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 5, 2018, 3:10 pm

All of this to me just makes going hard after Kikuchi the way to go.

Keep all the prospects “for now”.

But.......of course he gets to decide where he goes so we may not have any chance if he has a team/s in mind.

He was Ohtanis Roomate apparently.

 

Quote from dusty on December 5, 2018, 3:11 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 5, 2018, 2:44 pm

Fenn, I interpret Corbin signing differently.  The whole basis for starting this thread was I thought Syndergaard & the Mets were in a very similar situation to Chris Sale contract & the White Sox situation years ago when they had good SP but nothing else, decided to trade the SP & rebuild resulting in a BAD MLB team but with one of the very best farm systems...

... obviously the Mets disagree    Their mega-trade plus Corbin signing with Nats make it inarguable that the likelihood of Syndergaard now being traded to anyone including us, has gone down.  But it's not 0% yet.  Next thing to watch is C position.  If Mets trade for Realmuto or sign Grandal or Wilson Ramos, there is no path to a (Syndergaard) trade with Padres.

But I think the Corbin signing + likelihood Syndergaard stays, just drives up the price of the 5 remaining significant FA SP's (plus Sonny Gray's relative value to a playoff contender only):  #4 Keuchel, #7 Eovaldi, #9 Happ, #12 Kikuchi, #14 Morton (MLBTR ranked by total contract value).  I HOPE the Padres STAY THE HELL AWAY from these guys with POSSIBLE exception of Kikuchi who will have a much lower AAV than the other 4...

...That leaves the Indians & a potential Kluber trade.  The Padres can do 2 things I don't think any of the playoff contending teams can do in combination:  1)  Offer MLB players at Indians positions of need:  OF, Bullpen, C, backfill 200+ MLB SP innings  AND 2) Take on 17 MM in dead $ in the Kipnis contract.  To state the obvious, playoff contending teams need their players & their payroll to build contending teams!

Padres get:  Kluber & Kipnis, possibly an OF or  bottom of 40-man roster.  As proposed, Pads payroll rises about 20 MM net in 2019 to around 100 MM.  But drops 10-15 MM in 2020, drops 7-10 MM in 2021.

Indians get:  Myers (or Reyes or Renfroe), Hedges (or Mejia!), Lucchesi (or ANY SP/prospect but Gore), Yates, Miguel Diaz,  and 10 MM towards Myers contract (3/3/4 in 20-22). Indians save about 20 MM in 2019, "break even" to 3 MM lower in 2020 factoring in Arb raises for Hedges & Yates but 15 MM less outgo (buyout Encarnacion), 2021 payroll 4-7 MM higher than Kluber, 2022 increases maybe + 25-30 MM in Hedges last arb yr.

What I love about the possible trade is there is a lot of flexibility in return to Indians.  Just NO: Tatis, Gore, or Urias.  Unlikely but COULD even keep Myers due to combo of his low 2019 salary + Kipnis: sub Renfroe or Reyes (add a prospect to Cleve)... or even both (Cleve gives a RH OF back).  Want Paddack instead?  Fine, take Robbie Erlin instead of Diaz.  Castillo over Yates?  No Diaz.  Etc, etc.  Even though it seems insane for Mejia to go back, their need in OF is so great, that even if they add an OF, Mejia would have more playing time in OF there than in SD even if Myers gone.

Padres hope the "flip expensive vet" strategy works better with Kipnis than it did with Headley.  Unlikely, but buys another year of service time for Urias at least.  Pads would likely use remaining limited resources to focus on finding:  a SS or 3B (think Galvis, proven ideal mentor to Tatis/Urias), backup C (think A.J. Ellis proven ideal mentor to whoever remains), and some cheap rebound type bullpen arms.  Unlikely, but they COULD outbid anybody for Kikuchi by backloading a contract offer to him (low 2019 salary).... more likely if no trade.

2019 likely rough (again) offensively with so much youth, but ideally enter 2020 set at all/most positions with only 60 MM +/- salary commitments (Hosmer, Kluber, Garret Richards, + last year of dead Kemp/Olivera $, but not Arb salaries; likely only  5-7 guys in 1st or 2nd year)....  maybe 70 MM if + Galvis.   #1-ish Farm intact & arriving; prospects & $$ to spend on any glaring holes, but SP in 2020 looks awesome.

From Indians P.O.V: they're going to win AL Central with or without Kluber, but they can't win World Series with this OF/C.  They  get good 5-6 year control MLB SP who "only" has to be a # 5, substantial bullpen help, and exchange over-30:  Kluber, Kipnis, Brantley & Gomes for less accomplished but in their prime Lucchesi, Myers, & Hedges.  Interesting combo of getting younger while reshaping MLB roster to win now, plus gaining up to $20 MM to redeploy.  Extend Carrasco + add Kikuchi?    I think surplus value of a Lucchesi offsetting some of Kluber's massive surplus value and youth + $ a win for Indians.  Instant Opening Day Starter before ink dries way below market value who can lead the young bucks and "fade" to a #2-3 over contract, resolving "where does he play" Myers situation & contract, and creating clear starter/playing time at C a win for the Pads.  Minor value created by opening roster spots, +1 yr control Urias + potential flip of Kipnis for some $ back.

Summary:  Padres remain best MLB trade partner for Mets but especially Indians for ace SP due to ability to trade MLB assets at their positions of need, and absorb dead $ in 2019 since not contending this year.

I am going to kind of put it out there that I think it would be a bad move to trade for Kluber strictly because of his age vs Padres window to win. The only exception of this theory is if the Padres are serious about Harper. In theory, and call me crazy, but if the Padres take on Kipnis to get Kluber and can get away with sending them Mejía, possibly both Renfroe and Reyes along with a significant prospect or Lucchesi, Padres can significantly add payroll while putting together a really dangerous team by also adding Kikuchi and Gray.

Possible rotation:

Kluber

Kikuchi

Gray

Lauer/Lucchesi

Logan Allen

Potential Lineup before Tatis

Margot

Hosmer

Myers

Harper

Schoop

Kipnis

Hedges/Mejía,

Pitcher

Urias (shortstop)

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2018, 3:42 pm

The core of the suggested SD-CLEV deal makes some sense for the Indians (assuming someone else out there does not beat the offer ... not sure who could / would).

Keeping in mind that Cleveland is the favorite in the AL Central and ... although shedding payroll .... wants to compete in the playoffs. Add that after 2019 they shed a big contract in Encarnacion / Alonso so they should have some future wiggle room.

With that in mind, would expect they would prefer players with more ML experience over near-term prospects and opt for a Myers - Hedges - Yates base and they have alternative SP pieces ... so maybe a AAA/AA prospect or two over Luccehesi.

Myers (cash salary: 3-20-20-20-1 for buyout = $64MM) + Hedges ($2MM then 3 arbitration years) + Yates ($3MM then 1 arbitration years). So, a plus of only $8MM to the Indians in 2019 but

Kluber ($17.5 + 18.0 + 18.5) + Kipnis ($14.5). So, a minus of $32MM in 2019 to Cleveland offset by the plus $8MM ... net minus $24MM in 2019 (that is a plus for SD). Going forward they end up paying up more for the jump in Myers and the arbitration for Yates and Hedges ... offset by Encarnacion's FA.

Over time, Cleveland gives up $68.5MM over the next two years and are picking up about $80MM. Might mean the prospect should be a good piece unless the Indians really need to shed money fast.

Financially SD comes out really well in they can handle the 2019 money which would take them near $105MM before any other moves ... Kluber is less than Myers in 2020. I can live without Yates and Myers ... and Hedges IF the organization thinks Mejia can be a ML catcher (Cleveland did not).

Quote from Commie on December 5, 2018, 5:33 pm

If I told you the Pads could get two years of front of the rotation production for the cost of Stammen and Naylor, maybe Kennedy, you'd do it right? Oh and like $15 mil per. Still fine.

If the Pads trade for Sonny Gray and he leaves or is dealt after 19 then Richards steps in. 'explains the interest in Sonny by the Pads best i think. I know Gray is deadline fodder, but I think the team is committed to starting the Culture of Winning thing, so. See Hosmer, Eric.

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2018, 5:46 pm

Quote from Commie on December 5, 2018, 5:33 pm

If I told you the Pads could get two years of front of the rotation production for the cost of Stammen and Naylor, maybe Kennedy, you'd do it right? Oh and like $15 mil per. Still fine.

If the Pads trade for Sonny Gray and he leaves or is dealt after 19 then Richards steps in. 'explains the interest in Sonny by the Pads best i think. I know Gray is deadline fodder, but I think the team is committed to starting the Culture of Winning thing, so. See Hosmer, Eric.

The big unknown is what the NYY are getting offered for Gray. Is Gray at 1 year / $9MM more valuable to an Atlanta or Philadelphia (and therefore willing to pay a bigger price) than to SD?

IF Gray comes near his "AWAY" performance from 2018 he will be a very good deadline trade chip or likely be offered (and decline) a QO with the Padres getting a comp pick ... also good. If he does not, just tossed out $9MM and a couple of prospects (which may or may not be important depending on which prospects). Same factors for the contenders but they have the added incentive Gray moving them closer to a lucrative playoff run.

Probably a good gamble with the key being the prospects. If we are talking in the Naylor, Kennedy mode ... do it. If we are talking in the Paddack, Allen mode not so much. Side point on Stammen ... he was very good last season and every contender wants RP down the stretch ... he would be a 3 month rental and very low cost and he could deliver a very good trade deadline piece ... but a mix and match analysis.