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Potential frontline SP trade
#101 · December 5, 2018, 11:01 pm
Quote from David Nevin on December 5, 2018, 3:10 pmAll of this to me just makes going hard after Kikuchi the way to go.
Keep all the prospects “for now”.
But.......of course he gets to decide where he goes so we may not have any chance if he has a team/s in mind.
He was Ohtanis Roomate apparently.
As I couldn't shut my mind off analyzing a possible Kluber trade, it became much more obvious what a relative value Kikuchi is due to his lower AAV than the other FA SP's if they come in anywhere near MLBTR projections (Corbin raised bar, now Eovaldi sounds like higher contract too).
Pads without a trade are in a really good financial position to get him now, and of course his youth fits better than Kluber. Worth mentioning have to pay that posting fee upfront like a signing bonus. And Kikuchi's agent HAS to be telling him "you'll be handed a job 1st year in SD, but you're going to have your hands full keeping it after that!"
But the issue I have is I think he projects as a #4 SP in MLB. 1.18 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 & 3.3 BB/9 in Japan IS going to get worse in MLB. I realize Kluber is 32 with a ton of mileage, but 1.07 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 & 1.9 BB/9 at his AAV give more room to regress while clearly fronting the rotation in 19. Kikuchi feels more like he might block someone.
#102 · December 5, 2018, 11:11 pm
I knew Encarnacion was coming off Indians' books in 2020, but didn't know Alonso might too (his option might vest based on PA's).
Either way, Josh Naylor is actually a really good prospect fit for Indians, esp if Reyes (DH type) not in trade.
#103 · December 6, 2018, 5:30 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 5, 2018, 11:11 pmI knew Encarnacion was coming off Indians' books in 2020, but didn't know Alonso might too (his option might vest based on PA's).
Either way, Josh Naylor is actually a really good prospect fit for Indians, esp if Reyes (DH type) not in trade.
Yes, Alonso is on a mutual option that vests at about 500 PA (so maybe) but if it doesn't Cleveland will decline I am sure (saves about $8MM after buyout).
I am assuming the decline the club options on Encarnacion, Kipnis, and Otero which will lower their 2019 by about $28MM and get them close to $100MM and if they can "manage" Alonso drop another $8MM they drop under $100MM even after exercising options on Kluber and Carrasco.
The wild card is Cleveland's financial position ... never very good and attendance was not great last year even with winning. Is $100MM in 2020 and going forward a new cap ... if so there will be a coming issue if they have to resign Lindor (even some very large arbitration decisions) suggesting they need to keep the future cash flow low. In 2019 ... is there current $135MMish still too much until 2020 clears out some money?
I suspect the money is a bigger issue than is being reported which makes me think that any return for Kluber or Bauer will be low cost pieces but still with 2019 impact and longer term control. Not an easy combo. Makes Myers less of a target and good chance they can do better than Renfroe or Reyes for the OF offense.
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From the Padres, we need to keep in mind their payroll limitations ... they are already at $80+MM ... so if they made the earlier trade proposal they would be over $100MM and not likely to add much more ... and they would need more. Taking the Kipnis money would be the real roadblock in 2019.
#104 · December 6, 2018, 6:08 am
As much as this team needs offense I don't want to "sell low" on Naylor just because he is a 1b first player.
He is playing LF now and if he can play it even to the Kyle Blanks level,and he continues to hit....I don't want to just lump him into a trade because of his defensive position.
We need hitters....and he's been one at every level at a young age as well....
#105 · December 6, 2018, 8:50 am
From the Padres, we need to keep in mind their payroll limitations ... they are already at $80+MM ... so if they made the earlier trade proposal they would be over $100MM and not likely to add much more ... and they would need more. Taking the Kipnis money would be the real roadblock in 2019.
... which is why you don't (beating dead horse icon) commit 7% of your 100 MM+/- payroll to a dead $ player (Phil Hughes) to get a draft pick. It's not that (my) geek-nalysis shows it as an overpay by a few MM... it's that the move was made at all; potentially limiting a major move for the MLB team b/c the $ is gone now. Maybe justifiable if Pads payroll were double what it is.
Pads would be tight this year if they take Kipnis. But the value of clearing most of Myers' contract into future is pretty high. May be able to field very competitive team in 2020 < 100 MM. Theoretically, team may not "need" any help in 2020. Realistically, will probably need bullpen arm/s & a veteran big bat/position player somewhere. $$ & trade assets would be plentiful to address.
Maybe the solution is Indians eat some of Kipnis contract, say 5 MM this year. Pads eat 10 MM as proposed of Myers deal over 2020-2022. If Kipnis out of deal, Pads would have to give significantly more. Some of that giving could be more $ towards Myers, but at some point it makes no financial sense (really increasing Kluber's AAV). If Myers out of deal, ONLY chance for it to work with what Pads can offer is for Kipnis to remain in deal. I agree if Myers and Kipnis both out, Pads don't have enough to trade for Kluber.
Another Kipnis idea is that Pads would have ability to "sell" him with a good prospect in subsequent trade (i.e. reverse SOME of what they did with Hughes). Indians could just do that too, but their Farm is much weaker/thinner than ours.
#106 · December 6, 2018, 10:44 am
Pads have to be mentioned as an interesting "dark horse" for Greinke's 3 years control as they could theoretically construct a PROSPECT (not MLB players like Kluber idea) based deal. Major Assumption that he would waive his no-trade clause to get out of rebuilding now AZ.
Someone's comment from MLBTR article 11/30: Fascinating case study. Will a team trade for him, pick up the entire tab, AND surrender prospects? I think not… he’d probably get less right now if he were a free agent**. Maybe if D’backs pay him down to $25mm, they can get a few B prospects? And if they pay him down to $20mm, they get a single A prospect? Food for thought.
**Yes he would. 6-year younger near identical (nominally better) stats pitching for same team Corbin just got 21.5 - 23 MM AAV (10 MM of 140 total deferred). Greinke way more established/history, but at age 35 that is the absolute ceiling on his AAV.
Interestingly, Dbacks already deferring 10-11 MM/yr... so Greinke non-deferred salaries for 2019-21 are: 20, 21, 21 MM. Also in the realm of Kluber's 3 year AAV's: Worst case: 13, 17.5, 18 MM (20-21 options may increase up to $4M each based on finish in 2015-19 Cy Young votes) ....
If as a starting point in a trade talk Dbacks agreed to pay the deferred salary: Greinke = Corbin.
Still prefer Thor>Kluber > Greinke, but Greinke would "cost" a LOT less. No Kipnis, no or less MLB players involved, etc, power of no trade clause/limited market... WAY easier to construct a trade. 2 ideas:
1) Luis Patino, Josh Naylor, Edward Olivares & Clay Richard (3-4.5 MM). Dbacks pick up 5 MM total in 20-21 plus deferrals; Pads at 15.5 - 17 / 18 / 19 for Greinke.
2) Francisco Mejia, Eric Lauer, another lesser prospect. Dbacks pick up 17 MM total (5/6/6) 19-21 plus deferrals. Pads @ 15 x 3 for Greinke.
#107 · December 6, 2018, 11:07 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 6, 2018, 8:50 amFrom the Padres, we need to keep in mind their payroll limitations ... they are already at $80+MM ... so if they made the earlier trade proposal they would be over $100MM and not likely to add much more ... and they would need more. Taking the Kipnis money would be the real roadblock in 2019.
... which is why you don't (beating dead horse icon) commit 7% of your 100 MM+/- payroll to a dead $ player (Phil Hughes) to get a draft pick. It's not that (my) geek-nalysis shows it as an overpay by a few MM... it's that the move was made at all; potentially limiting a major move for the MLB team b/c the $ is gone now. Maybe justifiable if Pads payroll were double what it is.
Pads would be tight this year if they take Kipnis. But the value of clearing most of Myers' contract into future is pretty high. May be able to field very competitive team in 2020 < 100 MM. Theoretically, team may not "need" any help in 2020. Realistically, will probably need bullpen arm/s & a veteran big bat/position player somewhere. $$ & trade assets would be plentiful to address.
Maybe the solution is Indians eat some of Kipnis contract, say 5 MM this year. Pads eat 10 MM as proposed of Myers deal over 2020-2022. If Kipnis out of deal, Pads would have to give significantly more. Some of that giving could be more $ towards Myers, but at some point it makes no financial sense (really increasing Kluber's AAV). If Myers out of deal, ONLY chance for it to work with what Pads can offer is for Kipnis to remain in deal. I agree if Myers and Kipnis both out, Pads don't have enough to trade for Kluber.
Another Kipnis idea is that Pads would have ability to "sell" him with a good prospect in subsequent trade (i.e. reverse SOME of what they did with Hughes). Indians could just do that too, but their Farm is much weaker/thinner than ours.
Thank you....Between the money owed to Hughes ( 7,250,000), 5 million still owed Jedd Gyorko, 13 million paid to Headley and the $552,800 paid to Mitchell last year and his 910,000 for this year, Makita owed 1.9 million and the 7.5 and 8.5 million still owed to Hector Olivera ( From the Matt Kemp trade to Altlanta ) that comes out to 44,612,000 in dead money for this year and next if nothing else was added to the "Dead Money Payroll".
Now granted Mitchell is still on the roster at 910,000 for this year but what are the Padres really going to get from him and then the 2 year, 15 million for Garrett Richard that "Might" be a 1 yr deal in 2020 as he probably won't see the mound in 2019 so the Pads are in "Dead or Wounded" money at 59,612,800 dollars through next year....If I'm Ron Fowler I hate the idea of eating any more money on any player that get dealt ..... ie; Meyers
#108 · December 6, 2018, 11:08 am
Looks as though Cleveland just extended Carrasco by locking his 2020 option ($10.25MM) and adding 2 more years plus a vesting option for one more (2023) ... don't know the dollars yet.
Could look at it in two ways .... with a longer term lock on Carrasco makes it "safer" to deal Kluber or Bauer. Could also suggest they have committed a chunk of their future payroll space (and still have to deal with Lindor in arbitration) which could make adding any expense long term contract less likely.
Odds are neither move but if one did ... still think LAD since they have the near term players the Indians may like plus after seeing what has happened in the NL East might need to prep for the playoffs now.
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side: Cleveland has been trying to dump Kipnis since last winter and has found zero interest .... probably not a great flip candidate and frankly only a 2B with some limited fill in the OF which does not help his market.
#109 · December 6, 2018, 11:15 am
I tend to agree that adding any more dead money probably in a hinderance to any Padre success given a payroll cap ... too much now. I would consider even a player like Kipnis even if on the 25 man roster as semi-dead money as an expensive player blocking Urias or on the bench. Eating any Myers money now when he is only going to make $3MM (cash) in 2019 is premature ... better odds he builds some more value then deal with that scenario in 2020.
#110 · December 6, 2018, 11:16 am
Eovaldi re-signs with Boston (4 year deal, nearly $70MM) ... scratch off another one.