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Padres vs Rockies September 23-25
#21 · September 25, 2022, 5:37 pm
The front office has to struggle on some hard choices to fill 1B/DH and two SP slots ... not even considering upgrades at other slots. Don't really have much in the way to big trade chips in the minors and really can'g go top drawer on FA signings for all the slots since money is always a factor. They will have to make some gambles on in house options, some "lesser" cost FA, and aim the money at the key piece (or two).
With Tatis back, that should ease the pressure on adding a BIG bat and allow them to add at the "serviceable level". Maybe that aims their efforts at adding the 4th/5th SP as the big splash.
If they can sign one of Myers, Drury, or Bell would be good ... just no idea what they will require to sign. No idea how to factor in the last two months for Drury and Bell or the recent injury history for Myers in setting a cap on what to offer. Looked at the 2020-22 period and Myers and Bell are equal at 114 wRC+ with Drury at 109 (but a lot less PA) ... not sure a big difference. Defensively Myers is superior at the top end while Bell is just a bad 1B and should only be a DH. Age really is not a factor. I guess I would try to sign Myers first in the $8-10MM range considering his versatility and his longevity with the club ... he seems to be a plus in the clubhouse. Drury would probably sign for less and Bell would push for more (based on his WASH stats) and multi-year.
Add Tatis to CF and put Myers at 1B (assuming Profar returns in LF) ... the line-up is solid with DH being rotational and a spot for Campusano, Rosario Azocar, Grisham, Dixon, Alfaro to get a shot.
At that point focus on a SP for #4 (don't have any faith in the internal options being better than #5-6 to start 2023) ... and getting to the point where not seeing Clevinger or Manaea returning.
#22 · September 25, 2022, 11:07 pm
Clevinger just hasn't looked very good since returning. Granted, he's probably still finding his way after TJ.
I'd offer him a Martinez size deal to resign, with some heavy incentives.
I'm not sure I want to see him in the post season.
#23 · September 26, 2022, 6:37 am
Quote from WindsorUK on September 25, 2022, 11:07 pmClevinger just hasn't looked very good since returning. Granted, he's probably still finding his way after TJ.
I'd offer him a Martinez size deal to resign, with some heavy incentives.
I'm not sure I want to see him in the post season.
Yup 3/24 seem right and 2nd yr removed from TJ should = vintage Clev... he has also dealt with a lot of nagging stuff (knee, illness etc) all season long.. its a gamble for Padres and somewhat of a hometown discount play by Clev to a team that paid him a lot of money while not playing..
Sean I wouldn't even bring back at minimum tbh.. can easily get Davies or someone like that under $4mil which is > Sean.. seems to me father time has caught up to Sean and he hasn't adapted to it..
#24 · September 26, 2022, 7:01 am
Would just let Manaea move on but Clevinger is a tough call.
Love the idea of the “good” Clevinger but worry as a 32 year old next season coming off a 2nd TJ (maybe not the same recovery profile) with a knee issue and a long history of different injuries that he will never be that “good” Clevinger again.
I suspect it boils down to the contact. Padres have the need and seem to like Clevinger but hard pressed to see a multi-year offer given his underwhelming 2022 performance and injury history. Maybe a one year deal with incentives (starts?) and vesting option? Doubt Clevinger gives a “discount” but in a competitive offer might opt to stick the known environment. If the Padres did not need 2 SP I would not take the risk (for the likely contract level) but a bit trapped.
#25 · September 26, 2022, 8:04 am
Quote from fenn68 on September 26, 2022, 7:01 amWould just let Manaea move on but Clevinger is a tough call.
Love the idea of the “good” Clevinger but worry as a 32 year old next season coming off a 2nd TJ (maybe not the same recovery profile) with a knee issue and a long history of different injuries that he will never be that “good” Clevinger again.
I suspect it boils down to the contact. Padres have the need and seem to like Clevinger but hard pressed to see a multi-year offer given his underwhelming 2022 performance and injury history. Maybe a one year deal with incentives (starts?) and vesting option? Doubt Clevinger gives a “discount” but in a competitive offer might opt to stick the known environment. If the Padres did not need 2 SP I would not take the risk (for the likely contract level) but a bit trapped.
Looking at trade chips that might net us a #4-#5 type or a AA/AAA SP in the Groome mold
Rosario/Liberato/Kohlwey/Batten/Alfaro/ come to mind in different values..perhaps a 2 or 3 for 1 type
P wise we are in a lot better place.. we have a ton of BP arms under control for a long time and could use 2 or 3 perhaps with one of the players above to go get that arm
#26 · September 26, 2022, 8:08 am
Something like Mets send us 1B Vientos and SP Botto..
For
Alfaro + Cosgrove + Howell
#27 · September 26, 2022, 8:11 am
I could maybe see Clevinger coming back on a costlier version of the Martinez deal. 3/30 with opt outs and the chance to make another 5 per in incentives or something. I think the most likely scenario if he comes back is a 1 year deal though. I seem to remember Clevinger and Bauer talking about wanting to bet on themselves back in their Cleveland days. I think he'll take a 1 year deal and look to put together a good healthy season to reestablish his market.
#28 · September 26, 2022, 10:00 am
Thinking about 23.. I probably make a play on 2 players if $$,are tight.. before resigning Clev or others...
Player 1.. Wilson Contreras C/DH .. 4yrs/$60 mil..
Player 2. SP Senga (JPN) 5yts/$75mil
Player flex amongst Crone/Kim/Tatis/Profar to cover a # of positions and the ability of Contreras to hit and hit extremely well at Petco thus DH (50% of the time) make me pivot to such a move..
As for Senga ..after 2023 we have ONE SP signed for 2024.(Joe).. we really need 3 post season types to have a shot. Senga is that type of SP and locking he and Musgrove for the next 5. Seems ideal with what we have in our lower levels in the minors.. besides it makes AJPs job a bit easier having the flex to only sign 1 of Snell or Yu beyond 23.. both would be great BUT Senga in hand (or similar value FA) gives us stability..continuity there...
Lineup for 23 with Contreras
1. Tatis SS
2 Soto RF
3. Manny 3B
4. Contreras DH/C
5. Crone 1B (Crone and Contreras flip based on lhp/rhp)
6. Profar LF
7. Kim 2B (Kim and Profar flip vs lhp)
8. Nola/Campusano C (Campy DH's some when Contreras C)
9. Azocar/Grish CF
Bench - CF not playing/ C not C/ TWO SPOTS left.
* Brandon Dixon would be ideal 1B/2B/3B/OF low cost and could DH when Contreras C easy bat to carry at least to start the season (can always trade for a bat if need be )
* last bench spot could be someone like Batten.. or someone like Wil/Drury who would be more of a rotation semi regular ..but if Dixon is that guy... then Batten/Kohlwey type could be ideal... Rosario too but hate sitting a rookie with his upside
This lineup is deeper and > than our current one amd that's with losing 3 bats..with Tatis missing about a month (hopefully a week only =WS)...guys like Liberato/Rosario/etc can battle for that last bench spot by getting off to good mlb careers in April 23
#29 · September 26, 2022, 10:25 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 26, 2022, 8:11 amI could maybe see Clevinger coming back on a costlier version of the Martinez deal. 3/30 with opt outs and the chance to make another 5 per in incentives or something. I think the most likely scenario if he comes back is a 1 year deal though. I seem to remember Clevinger and Bauer talking about wanting to bet on themselves back in their Cleveland days. I think he'll take a 1 year deal and look to put together a good healthy season to reestablish his market.
What are we seeing in Clevinger that justifies even wanting him back let alone on a multi year deal given his age, injury history, and 2022 performance? 2018-19 was a long time ago. Not sure that any team (even if really needing a SP) will go multi-year ... so think Padres would be bidding against themselves.
#30 · September 26, 2022, 10:39 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 26, 2022, 8:04 amQuote from fenn68 on September 26, 2022, 7:01 amWould just let Manaea move on but Clevinger is a tough call.
Love the idea of the “good” Clevinger but worry as a 32 year old next season coming off a 2nd TJ (maybe not the same recovery profile) with a knee issue and a long history of different injuries that he will never be that “good” Clevinger again.
I suspect it boils down to the contact. Padres have the need and seem to like Clevinger but hard pressed to see a multi-year offer given his underwhelming 2022 performance and injury history. Maybe a one year deal with incentives (starts?) and vesting option? Doubt Clevinger gives a “discount” but in a competitive offer might opt to stick the known environment. If the Padres did not need 2 SP I would not take the risk (for the likely contract level) but a bit trapped.
Looking at trade chips that might net us a #4-#5 type or a AA/AAA SP in the Groome mold
Rosario/Liberato/Kohlwey/Batten/Alfaro/ come to mind in different values..perhaps a 2 or 3 for 1 type
P wise we are in a lot better place.. we have a ton of BP arms under control for a long time and could use 2 or 3 perhaps with one of the players above to go get that arm
We see the Padres' minor leaguers differently. I have zero trade value for Liberato, Kohlwey, Batten (every team has similar bodies destined for the minors), zero trade value for Alfaro who will be in the $3MM range / 1 year control and has had a horrible 2nd half with nearly a 50% rate (likely to be non-tendered), only Rosario might generate some trade value but not to the level of someone projected to be a bottom of the rotation SP in 2023.