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Padres vs Rockies September 23-25
#31 · September 26, 2022, 11:11 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 26, 2022, 10:00 amThinking about 23.. I probably make a play on 2 players if $$,are tight.. before resigning Clev or others...
Player 1.. Wilson Contreras C/DH .. 4yrs/$60 mil..
Player 2. SP Senga (JPN) 5yts/$75mil
Player flex amongst Crone/Kim/Tatis/Profar to cover a # of positions and the ability of Contreras to hit and hit extremely well at Petco thus DH (50% of the time) make me pivot to such a move..
As for Senga ..after 2023 we have ONE SP signed for 2024.(Joe).. we really need 3 post season types to have a shot. Senga is that type of SP and locking he and Musgrove for the next 5. Seems ideal with what we have in our lower levels in the minors.. besides it makes AJPs job a bit easier having the flex to only sign 1 of Snell or Yu beyond 23.. both would be great BUT Senga in hand (or similar value FA) gives us stability..continuity there...
First of all, this is NOT a week night softball team. You dont just throw ML players into different positions every night, especially when they are all stars.
Second, we dont need another aging C/DH, we dont need to add Contreras for $15M per season, especially when he is turning 31 next season and would 35 when done with this contract. And by the way, he only hit .218 away from Wrigley Field. He is not worth $15M a season, nor does SD have the ability to allocate that much to him.
Third, Senga is what??? The second coming of Ohtani, or the next version of Hideki Irabu??? We dont know, and until we do, you can not count on him being the #2 behind Musgrove, who in reality is probably a #2 as well, nor spend $15M a season on a gamble, SD doesnt have the money.
So, leave Crone at 2B, leave Kim at SS (defensively and somewhat offensively, he has earned it), Profar has proven he is a back up that can do well for a few weeks stretch when someone is hurt. Profar is not an everyday LFer, especially by bat. And Tatis has earned the right to the following, Show up, shut up, and play where he is told to play. Then maybe, maybe, when he has finally played more than a 120 games in one season, with no major injuries, or stupid suspensions, he can think of unseating Kim at SS.
So you have the following set for 2023. Machado at 3B, Kim at SS, and Crone at 2B, with Nola/Alfaro at C. Tatis in LF, Grisham/Azocar in CF, and Soto if RF. So we need a real LHH power hitting 1B, not sure who that is at this moment, but that is the only position player that SD needs for 2023. DH can be a rotating resting spot for guys. And if Myers wants to come back for $5-7.5M for next season, he can be in the mix for 1B.
#32 · September 26, 2022, 11:14 am
The "only" positions we have "any" depth is C and MI (after Nando is back).
At C none really hold much trade value and at MI it's Kim or Crone and for the first 25 games or so we need both.
Also,both are fan favorites and valuable pieces even if/when the IF gets a bit more crowded.
The only way I see us gaining a quality #2-#3 Starter with more than 1 years control would be by trading one of Kim/Crone....and I don't see that happening either.
Going to have to rely on free agency or "minor" trades to add a 1b and starting pitching.
The quality of said adds will depend on Ownerships willingness to exceed the threshold yet again and by how much.
Otherwise its guys like Jesus Aguilar and Kyle Davies/Jose Quintana for us.
BTW the more I think about it I can't see SD offering more to Myers than the Rox would and he would be smart to go to Co. to regain his value.
#33 · September 26, 2022, 11:15 am
Quote from fenn68 on September 26, 2022, 10:39 amQuote from Henry Silvestre on September 26, 2022, 8:04 amQuote from fenn68 on September 26, 2022, 7:01 amWould just let Manaea move on but Clevinger is a tough call.
Love the idea of the “good” Clevinger but worry as a 32 year old next season coming off a 2nd TJ (maybe not the same recovery profile) with a knee issue and a long history of different injuries that he will never be that “good” Clevinger again.
I suspect it boils down to the contact. Padres have the need and seem to like Clevinger but hard pressed to see a multi-year offer given his underwhelming 2022 performance and injury history. Maybe a one year deal with incentives (starts?) and vesting option? Doubt Clevinger gives a “discount” but in a competitive offer might opt to stick the known environment. If the Padres did not need 2 SP I would not take the risk (for the likely contract level) but a bit trapped.
Looking at trade chips that might net us a #4-#5 type or a AA/AAA SP in the Groome mold
Rosario/Liberato/Kohlwey/Batten/Alfaro/ come to mind in different values..perhaps a 2 or 3 for 1 type
P wise we are in a lot better place.. we have a ton of BP arms under control for a long time and could use 2 or 3 perhaps with one of the players above to go get that arm
We see the Padres' minor leaguers differently. I have zero trade value for Liberato, Kohlwey, Batten (every team has similar bodies destined for the minors), zero trade value for Alfaro who will be in the $3MM range / 1 year control and has had a horrible 2nd half with nearly a 50% rate (likely to be non-tendered), only Rosario might generate some trade value but not to the level of someone projected to be a bottom of the rotation SP in 2023.
I dont know ..Alfaro pop rate is elite ..his C is on the above avg side and he has power..clutch power too..a team like the Indians would benefit a great deal and Alfaro could easily start for the Mets.. I never said Batten and Kowley had much trade value ..but do think they can be 3rd or final add in a 3 or 4 player to X team type trade..a good scout would note that Alfaro played hurt most of the 2nd half and would be looking at 1st half..also if not for his Petco splits ..Alfaro would be a near .800 OPS C a rare breed .. he would be a Monster at Fenway or Cinci..
? Has Campy shown enough in his limited last month that if we signed a Contreras (or trade for a Stephenson) that he can be a very valuable chip (just a notch or 2 below a Merrill) for a specific add..be it a CFer..a SLG 1B or even Josh Naylor
#34 · September 26, 2022, 11:22 am
360 .385 .520 .905 then again Campy might just be that DH/backup C type with this type of production (his numbers since coming up in a pressure cooker type situation ) only 25 AB buy SO at 20% BB at 5% and proj 20+ HRs in that short sample size... 😆
#35 · September 26, 2022, 12:00 pm
I get that playing Tatis in the OF may end up being the play but why LF over RF?
Because Soto is already in RF?
Tatis has twice the arm as Soto so I would think we would want him in RF......no?
Everyone keeps saying LF but I just don't see why.
#36 · September 26, 2022, 12:15 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on September 26, 2022, 12:00 pmI get that playing Tatis in the OF may end up being the play but why LF over RF?
Because Soto is already in RF?
Tatis has twice the arm as Soto so I would think we would want him in RF......no?
Everyone keeps saying LF but I just don't see why.
Has Soto play in LF extensively over his career?..and I think LF is "busier" and thus requires a more speedy guy.. But if Soto has extensive playing time there.. fine.. just not a fan of moving 2 guys from a position they feel comfortable with (Tstis SS and Soto RF) if I can make a move that affects only 1
#37 · September 26, 2022, 12:16 pm
Quote from fenn68 on September 26, 2022, 10:25 amQuote from Jeremy Hill on September 26, 2022, 8:11 amI could maybe see Clevinger coming back on a costlier version of the Martinez deal. 3/30 with opt outs and the chance to make another 5 per in incentives or something. I think the most likely scenario if he comes back is a 1 year deal though. I seem to remember Clevinger and Bauer talking about wanting to bet on themselves back in their Cleveland days. I think he'll take a 1 year deal and look to put together a good healthy season to reestablish his market.
What are we seeing in Clevinger that justifies even wanting him back let alone on a multi year deal given his age, injury history, and 2022 performance? 2018-19 was a long time ago. Not sure that any team (even if really needing a SP) will go multi-year ... so think Padres would be bidding against themselves.
I didn't say I wanted him back and I agree that he's unlikely to find or accept a multi-year deal. I was trying to make the point that I think he'll opt for a deal that allows him to cash in if he bounces back. Any team that signs him would be gambling on health and upside. The second year back from Tommy John is generally when guys round back into form. He's also apparently been pitching on a bad knee all year. We've seen flashes of the old Clev. Maybe he rounds back into form and somebody finds a bargain.
#38 · September 26, 2022, 12:18 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on September 26, 2022, 12:00 pmI get that playing Tatis in the OF may end up being the play but why LF over RF?
Because Soto is already in RF?
Tatis has twice the arm as Soto so I would think we would want him in RF......no?
Everyone keeps saying LF but I just don't see why.
I vote CF for Tatis ... the easiest for him to master and has the speed to cover ground and less likely to run into a wall and be out for months. Can't see them moving off Kim / Cronenworth in the middle on defense alone.
2021-22 has convinced me that can't endure Grisham's bat in the line-up ... maybe a bench role for defense at best. Like what we have seen is Azocar ... but not confident he will produce for a full season and it looks at best he is an OK hitter (singles/doubles) that can hold the bottom of the line-up ... 4th OF type.
If I had to choose between Grisham - Azocar - Profar in the OF ... I go with Profar in LF.
#39 · September 26, 2022, 12:23 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 26, 2022, 12:16 pmQuote from fenn68 on September 26, 2022, 10:25 amQuote from Jeremy Hill on September 26, 2022, 8:11 amI could maybe see Clevinger coming back on a costlier version of the Martinez deal. 3/30 with opt outs and the chance to make another 5 per in incentives or something. I think the most likely scenario if he comes back is a 1 year deal though. I seem to remember Clevinger and Bauer talking about wanting to bet on themselves back in their Cleveland days. I think he'll take a 1 year deal and look to put together a good healthy season to reestablish his market.
What are we seeing in Clevinger that justifies even wanting him back let alone on a multi year deal given his age, injury history, and 2022 performance? 2018-19 was a long time ago. Not sure that any team (even if really needing a SP) will go multi-year ... so think Padres would be bidding against themselves.
I didn't say I wanted him back and I agree that he's unlikely to find or accept a multi-year deal. I was trying to make the point that I think he'll opt for a deal that allows him to cash in if he bounces back. Any team that signs him would be gambling on health and upside. The second year back from Tommy John is generally when guys round back into form. He's also apparently been pitching on a bad knee all year. We've seen flashes of the old Clev. Maybe he rounds back into form and somebody finds a bargain.
Bargain is the key ... and someone will make an offer ... a one year type deal for the gamble and maybe a bit more dollars that most expect for the safety of a one year deal. I would not rule out the Padres being that team unless some unknown options pop up for SP candidates.
#40 · September 26, 2022, 12:24 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 26, 2022, 12:15 pmQuote from MrPadre19 on September 26, 2022, 12:00 pmI get that playing Tatis in the OF may end up being the play but why LF over RF?
Because Soto is already in RF?
Tatis has twice the arm as Soto so I would think we would want him in RF......no?
Everyone keeps saying LF but I just don't see why.
Has Soto play in LF extensively over his career?..and I think LF is "busier" and thus requires a more speedy guy.. But if Soto has extensive playing time there.. fine.. just not a fan of moving 2 guys from a position they feel comfortable with (Tstis SS and Soto RF) if I can make a move that affects only 1
As I recall, Soto started his career as a LF and WASH moved him to RF a couple of years ago (no idea why).