Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2019, 8:14 am

The Padres have emerged as one of the more ardent trade suitors for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, and now Miami looks to have its eyes on one of San Diego’s young backstops.  The Marlins want catching prospect Francisco Mejia included as part of the Padres’ offer for Realmuto, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link).

That's not a problem in my mind ... still will boil down to the other pieces and getting Realmuto on an extension.

Would be intrigued as to what Hedges would yield on the trade market ... if nothing else should recoup a prospect to offset a prospect dealt for Realmuto if not a ML piece. For 2019 easy to live with Realmuto / Stewart (and resigning Ellis is still an option). Then test in Allen in 2020 as the back-up.

I too would prefer trading for Realmuto and just adding Moustakas on a 2 - 3 year deal .... he is a good legit ML 3B, a LHH power hitter (needed in a RH heavy line-up), and a real close friend of Hosmer with successful playoff experience with KC / Milw. Buys time for Potts at a relatively low cost (should not be more than $8-10MM per) leaving money on the table for adding some veteran presence for SP in the near term.

I like keeping some payroll flexibility for the next couple of years to be sure that money is directed to the critical need when they are contending. Maybe that is a key SP but not all that sure it will not be a prime time CF ... Margot / Jankowski are not taking CF by storm ... Cordero as of yet can't field the position well and has a long way to go to hit ML pitching ... Reed / Olivares by most accounts are seen with 4th OF ceilings (good defense but not so much hitters).

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 26, 2019, 8:45 am

I have to guess if they are going hard for Machado they don't like what Moose is demanding?

Or have they told him "we'll get back to you" if they don't land Machado?

Personally I think Potts is going to fill out and continue to improve.

I realize we could always trade him but $25+ mil per season for Machado might hurt if in two years Potts is a top 3 ML

prospect and we have nowhere to play him.

But then again....we need to add offense anyway we can so if we get Machado I'm not gonna complain.

 

 

Quote from dvmin98 on January 26, 2019, 9:20 am

You can't not acquire a player with the talent of Machado just because someone like Potts, who's about 2-3 years away, may turn into something.  Machado is a rare talent and if you can get him, not only will he help the team win, but it would be a signal to the Padres' community that we are ready to put that next foot forward to start winning.

The best part about Machado is that he would only cost money.  No loss from our farm system and no forfeiture of a draft pick.  Hard to pass him up, especially if they can get him for like 7 years $200-220 million, since he was supposed to land a 10 year, $30 million contract.

Machado, Tatis, Urias and Hosmer for 6-7 years is a pretty damn nice infield.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 26, 2019, 9:27 am

I didn't mean to suggest not to sign Machado "solely" because of Potts.

Obviously the $250 million commitment is a factor as well.......:)

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 26, 2019, 9:34 am

We need to be careful thinking that all of our prospects are going to become stars.

Signing Machado could hamstring us going forward if the prospects we are counting on don't all become at least average major league players.

I know I'm guilty myself of just assuming Urias and Tatis and our pitching prospects are all just bound to be all stars.

But like I said....I won't complain if we break the bank for Manny....I trust AJ to have a plan.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2019, 9:46 am

Side note for any of the top FA signings (e.g. Machado, Harper, and some others) .... there will be a full no trade clause for the first few years and maybe ease to a partial no trade for the years 4 and 5 but after that the player will get 10/5 rights and have automatically full trade veto rights. Sort of the "norm" for the big time signings.

For the player the can avoid being shipped to some undesirable team and try to coerce the current club to work a deal to the player's targeted destination (for Manny likely NYY or Miami).

As I recall, Hosmer has full no trade for years 1-3 of his deal and partial no-trade for years 4-5 then the 10/5 rule kicks in. Would expect the same logic for Machado.

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2019, 9:55 am

Be we get oversold on Machado's talents being "generational" ... consider that in 2017 he was the 13th ranked 3B based on WAR and only delivered a 103 wRC+. IF you moved his 2018 WAR as a SS over the the 2018 3B list he would still only be 5th behind Ramirez, Bergman, Chapman, and Rendon ... just above Arenado.

Is he among the elite ... yes. Is he head and shoulders above the other top 3B .. no.

Since I am not a fan ... and 2019 is not a contending year for the Padres ... would wait to see if I could play in the Rendon / Arenado FA game next winter.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 26, 2019, 10:23 am

At 26 years of age there's just as much chance Machados offense improves rather than declines.

Plus his WAR was based off of his defense at SS.....wouldn't it be expected for his defense at 3b to be better?

Also,we don't know what's going on with Moustakas or that Rendon or Arenado will be available next year or that we would have a chance to sign them if they do.

AJ is probably swinging for the fence while he has a chance in the Box not knowing if he will get another AB.

 

If the Rockies are smart they will lock Arenado up and if HE was smart he's stay in Colorado.

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2019, 10:52 am

Since I don't expect Machado to fall through the cracks and have no team be prepared to out bid SD ... sort of an academic exercise.

Harper (Boras) may be the real key .... quiet on his front but at a minimum PHIL, CWS, and WASH seem to be in play. CWS / PHIL don't seem to care if they get Harper or Machado ... so they will not bid against themselves and will wait out the agents with low bids to see who blinks first.  WASH is still lurking around on Harper (especially since Boras and the owner seem to have a very good relationship).

I guess from a team perspective ... with little current competition .. just low bid and if you get one at that price great but if one goes to the other team also great since now you have no completion for the other and can likely really get him lowballed.

From the agents standpoint ... they heard the PHILS speak of "stupid money" to spend this winter so neither are going to accept a low ball hoping the other takes the CWS offer and PHIL (with money) is cornered with their fans to do something big.

What then could throw all this off is WASH coming in again at the $300MM / 10 years (give or take) and sign Harper. CWS and PHIL now only have Machado to target and the price rises. Given the Boras / Lerner relationship ... not out of the question if PHIL / CWS don't up their game.

Then there is the Padres, also a very good relationship with Boras ... subversive thinking here but Preller could be playing the Machado game just to be driving up the price ... have another team sign him ... clearing the way for Boras to get a better deal on Harper ... then work with Boras to sign Moustakas. Something to get the dominoes to fall.