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#721 · January 25, 2019, 4:51 pm
OK, another line of attack from MLBTradeRumors:
The Padres are not just interested in acquiring Realmuto’s final arbitration-eligible seasons. Rather, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link), the San Diego organization is “insisting on [a] window to negotiate [a] contract extension” if they are to line up on a deal with the Marlins.
Realmuto is 27 with 2 control years and considered the best catcher (all around) in MLB. Opens 2 questions:
1. what would be an acceptable contract to Realmuto to bypass hitting FA at age 29 while still in his prime? Would think it would require quite a few additional years taking him into his early 30s. Makes sense for the Padres to get at least 3 added years. Clearly the AAV for the extension years would be well north of $20MM .. maybe to $25MM.
2. what would Miami take for Realmuto since they made a point of getting current ML talent of some quality in return (note are asking for Bellinger for LAD ... not getting him though). Clearly one of Hedges or Mejia would be included, an OF (Renfroe since he is low cost), and a couple of pitchers either ML or AAA. Flip that to what would the Padres give up?
Also, consider that if the get Realmuto with an extension (yielding at least 5 control years) .... BOTH Hedges and Mejia are expendable (one likely gone to Miami) but the other is (or will be) too good to sit on the bench and the Padres would be better served using them as a trade chips ... maybe for a 3B or SP?
Another set of IF ... THEN sequences to tease us.
#722 · January 25, 2019, 5:39 pm
I’d be OK with Hedges playing a couple games a week.
Mejia/Renfroe/Nix/Lawson for JTR?
Or would we need to replace Nix with Lauer?
#723 · January 25, 2019, 5:58 pm
More like Mejia, Renfroe, Lauer, Baez for JTR.
#724 · January 25, 2019, 6:22 pm
Real curious on Preller's thought process with J.T. I'm guessing it might be a drive up the price play. Preller needs to stay focused on 3b and SP. We already have a more than serviceable catcher and one of the top catching prospects with a 60 hit tool.
Really need an ace to anchor this staff while we get to see what Quantrill, Allen, and Paddack have next year. He should be using his trade chips to land a high profile SP.
#725 · January 25, 2019, 8:25 pm
So now we hear Realmuto, Gonzalez, Machado, and Harper have been contacted by the Pads.
I think I see Lucy coming with her football......
#726 · January 25, 2019, 9:37 pm
We've heard Realmuto for weeks now, so no new news there. The Machado is new, and I will vomit if they waste money on Harper. Gonzalez, assuming you mean Marwin, would be a better sign than Machado IMO.
#727 · January 26, 2019, 4:31 am
Well JTR is making $6 (projected arb) 2019..probably $10mil in 2020. Grandal couldn't get anything in FA and C usually don't get too long of deals or too much $$ because tge position makes for shorter careers (at least for starters) so assuming he is playing for $16 mil combined ..in 19 and 20 ..a 2
4yr $60 mil extension with a $25 mil option or $5 mil buyout..makes a ton of sense for both sides.. That takes 19 to $15mil (almost triple) 20 to $15 mil (+$5mil) and 21 and 22 maybe at a slight discount..with the Buyout $$ or the $25 mil at age 32 ($10 mil more than Grandal got).. Not a bad deal for both sides
#728 · January 26, 2019, 4:49 am
The "new" on Realmuto is the Padres want (need) of an extension to move on.a deal. Get 5-6 years control of the 27 year old "best all around catcher in baseball" improves the catching spot. Before just getting him for 2 years made little sense unless it was a flip or 3 team deal.
Getting that long control does suggest the Padres may not see either Hedges or Mejia stepping up to the next level ... Hedges' bat keeps him to just being "average" and maybe after working with Mejia they have lost a bit of their in-house projection. However, MLB is catching starved ... so both Hedges and Mejia still would be sought after by other teams and Preller could (would) deal the one not included in the Realmuto deal to anchor a trade for SP/3B.
IF it would be Mejia to Miami (no idea which way they would lean) .... can't see Realmuto and Hedges co-existing in 2019. Padres are not going to pay the big price for the best catcher in MLB and only have him play 120 games or so (more like 130-140) and Hedges is too good to be limited to a maximum of 40 games (especially in his thinking).
A second deal would have to be in play for Hedges and then go with someone like Stewart as the back-up in the short run and see what you have with Allen or Torrens as the future back-up.
Renfroe plus 2 top 100 prospects (Mejia and L.Allen) plus a lower level prospect not in the Padres top 30 ... in most of these trades with 4 players ... the 4th is usually not high profile.
#729 · January 26, 2019, 5:15 am
Negotiating the extension with Realmuto would be the hardest part of the deal. Getting his side to give up hitting FA in two years at age 29 ... an age where he could get 3-4 years (even as a catcher) at a minimum getting him to age 32. FA at 32 (or 31) for a catcher is really getting into diminishing returns. Guessing the Padres would have to go with a minimum 3 year extension giving them 5 years of control (depending on the opt out clause that will be included).
Getting five years of control does work well with the 4 remaining years for Myers and Hosmer (assuming he does his opt out) solidifying the roster around the development of the young prospects. Add that Realmuto is a plus defensive catcher which would be important to the development of the waves of young SP beginning to arrive this year and continuing for the next few years.
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Hard to speculate how the potential for a strike after the 2021 season and a new CBA beginning in 2022 might factor into the length of a deal. New CBA rules may (or may not) make FA easier / more lucrative for the player or may allow more FA adding to competition and "lower" the high end contracts.
#730 · January 26, 2019, 6:19 am
To me, if you can add Machado for 7 years (5 plus opt out) and Realmuto (on a 3 year extension) while being able to unload Mejía, one of the current rostered outfielders, and another 5-10 prospect, while setting up a secondary move of hedges and another prospect for a pitcher, you absolutely do it in my opinion. I think while this will certainly put 4-5 players occupying 80% of your team’s salary, it will allow quite a bit of that salary to come off the books after 5 years, which at that point they will be able to pick 4-5 of their young stars (Urias, Tatis, Gore, etc) to extend contracts at the time they will need to. You get a potential potent lineup of
Urias
Tatis
Machado
Myers
Hosmer
Realmuto
Reyes/Cordero
Margot/Reed
This lineup would eliminate a lot of pressure on a lot of the guys to feel like they have to change the game on one swing of the bat. Then you can build a pitching rotation around that lineup and that bullpen that, in my opinion, is vastly underrated and packed with young firepower