Quote from Brian Connelly on December 23, 2018, 10:47 am

...  either Stroman or Kluber would obviously slot right in as Pads #1.  But Kluber is a true ace, Stroman...?

Anyone saying JUST Logan Allen or "no one from our top 30!?!?!"  I mean come on you guys... you would be (and are) arguing exactly the opposite if it were our MLB asset!

"..while Stroman's 4.65 ERA over his final 11 starts doesn't impress, there were signs of his former self below the surface... his elite ability to keep the ball on the ground; no other qualified starter came close to Stroman's 64.2 percent ground-ball rate from his June 29 start through the end of season.  More importantly, Stroman sliced his rate of hard-hit balls allowed ( exit velocities > 95 mph) from a league-high 51.8 percent through his first eight starts to 32.1 percent over his final 11. Softer contact led to Stroman's excellent .280 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA, Statcast™'s all-purpose metric that measures how hitters and pitchers should fare based on strikeouts, walks and quality of contact) in the second half, the same as Patrick Corbin's in that span and much better than the .320 xwOBA he compiled in 2017. What's more, Stroman showed these improvements while battling a blister issue that ended his season in early September.

MLB Trade Rumors pegs Stroman earning roughly $7 million through arbitration next year, and he's still under team control through 2020. That makes him a desirable asset, and with the Blue Jays in a time of transition following the departures of former stars Josh Donaldson, J.A. Happ and Troy Tulowitzki, this would seem to be the time for Toronto to try to acquire some elite prospects in the trade market. The Brewers and Reds both need a quality starter, but they might not have the name-brand pitching prospects the Blue Jays would likely want in return.

I highly doubt "Logan Allen" is enough by himself.  ( "Michel Baez" IMO maybe too much..).    but my overriding point is:  We would be giving up trade assets for an imperfect trade (only 2 yrs control).  SINCE WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING LIKE THIS TRADE ANYWAY... why NOT give up INCREMENTALLY "more" for a far more situationally ideal to Pads trade (3 yrs control)?

I would rather "overpay" for a guy like Kluber than a guy like Stroman or Sonny Gray.  I fully get we can't make the Indians, Mets, whomever trade "that guy".  But the fact it's even a possibility at all that they might means we should exhaust that possibility completely before moving on to 2nd choice trades like Stroman... I can just hear the whining & crying now...

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 23, 2018, 11:25 am

I think we would all rather have Kluber than Stroman.....even at the higher cost.

But the Indians probably aren’t gonna part with him if one of our “untouchables” aren’t included.

Hence the interest in Stroman.

I think part of the issue is that the Major League team hasn’t won in so long that the Farm system is all we’ve had to be excited about.

So the thought of losing some of these guys we’ve anticipated seeing in SD is unsettling.

But we’ve had good Farm systems before.....held on to those guys....and it got us nowhere.

Just look at the 15 prospects or so we traded away a few years ago.

We all thought we would regret trading many of them.....turns out only a couple have hurt.

Bottom Line.....we can’t keep them all.

If the time isn’t now it will be here soon that we have to trade some.

It appears AJ is being very careful to this point so if he does make a move we have to assume he’s just as worried as we are of trading “the wrong” prospects.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2018, 3:07 pm

It really is not an issue of trading prospects ... at some point ... but for a team that is coming off 96 losses don't see any upside in adding (at the cost of good prospects) for a 1 or 2 year rental that is destined to take a bad team and make it less bad but still a losing proposition. 2019 is going to be bad and until some of the potential game changing top prospects arrive and deliver (e.g. Tatis, Paddack, Urias, et. al) so the Padre have a solid base to add to.

Now if they can get upgrades for "lesser prospects" (always debatable who are the lesser prospects) maybe worth the gamble. Given the number of teams that want to bolster their pitching staff including some contending teams (LAD, MILW, NYY, ...) and these potential SP are not moving ... might give a clue that the sellers are asking way above the SP's value even to a team that needs to successfully contend.

I just am willing hold on making any major SP add until next winter (there are always quality arms to pursue) and give another year to find out which of the prospects become Cory Luebke and which become Corey Kluber ... at the point can't tell.

I see no path for the Padres to contend in 2019 (and probably not .500) ... so move of any legit assets must focus on their value in 2020-2022.

Quote from brent wolff on December 23, 2018, 6:34 pm

I'm in favor of quantity over quality here.  Lauer, Perdomo, & Lawson or something similar for Stroman.  I'd rather hang onto Baez & L. Allen.  What does everyone else think?  Go Pads.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2018, 6:48 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2018, 3:07 pm

It really is not an issue of trading prospects ... at some point ... but for a team that is coming off 96 losses don't see any upside in adding (at the cost of good prospects) for a 1 or 2 year rental that is destined to take a bad team and make it less bad but still a losing proposition. 2019 is going to be bad and until some of the potential game changing top prospects arrive and deliver (e.g. Tatis, Paddack, Urias, et. al) so the Padre have a solid base to add to.

Now if they can get upgrades for "lesser prospects" (always debatable who are the lesser prospects) maybe worth the gamble. Given the number of teams that want to bolster their pitching staff including some contending teams (LAD, MILW, NYY, ...) and these potential SP are not moving ... might give a clue that the sellers are asking way above the SP's value even to a team that needs to successfully contend.

I just am willing hold on making any major SP add until next winter (there are always quality arms to pursue) and give another year to find out which of the prospects become Cory Luebke and which become Corey Kluber ... at the point can't tell.

I see no path for the Padres to contend in 2019 (and probably not .500) ... so move of any legit assets must focus on their value in 2020-2022.

Luebke was a stud my friend career 3.25 ERA as a Padre 1st 3yrs...yoi can't see the future and know that a career ending injury would happen ...i...i mean if you had to make a choice between Luebke and Kubler and both were rookies....many gms would have picked Luebke and rightfully so....

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2018, 6:50 pm

Quote from brent wolff on December 23, 2018, 6:34 pm

I'm in favor of quantity over quality here.  Lauer, Perdomo, & Lawson or something similar for Stroman.  I'd rather hang onto Baez & L. Allen.  What does everyone else think?  Go Pads.

Lauer pitched to a 3.18 ERA the seasons 2nd half...at the MLB level...id trade Baez 100 times over before I trade Lauer right now..

Quote from brent wolff on December 23, 2018, 6:56 pm

@Henry Silvestre, I don't see superstar potential in Lauer.  I see more of a #4 or #5, crafty left-hand starter ceiling in Lauer.  Baez has top of the rotation potential, #1, #2 or #3.  I think AJP seems to be a go for broke type, prefers higher ceiling prospects over lower ceiling prospects.  It will be interesting to see what happens.  Go Pads.

Quote from fenn68 on December 24, 2018, 6:38 am

Not sure why Lauer's name keeps coming up as a trade chip. Maybe he is only a mid / bottom of the rotation arm BUT the Padres need 5-6 legit ML SP ... trading him out to get a replacement does not help all that much. Consider:

Lauer (6 years control) 2018: full season (112 innings) 4.34 ERA ... second best on the Padres; post-all star game (34 innings) 3.15 ERA.

Stroman (2 years control) 2018: full season (102 innings) 5.54 ERA ; post-all star game (36 innings) 4.95 ERA.

So, Lauer pitched better than Stroman in 2018 .. has 6 years of control vs Stroman's 2 ... is cheaper ... and the Padres would still need 4 SP. COULD Stroman be better than Lauer in 2019-20 ... maybe ... but even if he did the Padres still need 4 more SP. Then in 2021-22 when hopefully the rest of the prospects have arrived (and producing) Stroman is gone. IF you get Stroman ... for prospects not any of the thin cast of ML pitchers.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 24, 2018, 6:46 am

I think Lauers' name keeps coming up due to his ceiling compared to guys like Baez.

Considering 2021.....who do you "think" will be the better pitcher...Lauer or Baez?

Lauer or Logan Allen?

Logan or Morejon?

There's no guarantee and much of the perception is based on "stuff" and speculation.

Lauer could end up the better pitcher of all of these options.

But the fact Lauer has already had major league success,albeit limited,may also  make another GM value him

higher than a guy still in A+ or AA.