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Offseason Thread
#521 · December 24, 2018, 7:07 am
An important point is the recognition on prospects (or even the ML players) ... their value is based all on projection ... and no one can (consistently) project accurately. Sort of why the consensus seems to be you need 2-3 pitching prospects to get 1 legit ML pitcher. Since they all need to develop something ... command / secondary pitch whatever ... or fall victim to injury, holding on to that volume of prospects has a lot of value to a team that arguably still needs 5 ML quality SP.
Luebke vs. Kluber is a perfect example ... Luebke was regarded clearly as the better prospect so they dealt Kluber (for Ryan Ludwick) ... Luebke falls victim to TJ and fades into oblivion ... Kluber "develops" and wins CY Young. (and we know the value of Ludwick to the Padres). The better of Allen or Baez (or any of the better pitching prospects) is just unknown so really need them all to build a legit pitching staff for 2020-22.
That does not mean they should not consider dealing some of them ... but the return has to be for a player they will see as a major contributor during the contending years (2021-22). 2019 (and probably 2020) are still transition years best served by maxing time for the prospects to weed themselves out.
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Side on Baez ... he does have potentially a very valuable secondary ML path even if he does not develop his secondary stuff ... RP. That "70" FB in short spurts should play quite well. Teams may need 5 SP but they also need 8 RP.
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#522 · December 24, 2018, 7:18 am
Quote from David Nevin on December 24, 2018, 6:46 amI think Lauers' name keeps coming up due to his ceiling compared to guys like Baez.
Considering 2021.....who do you "think" will be the better pitcher...Lauer or Baez?
Lauer or Logan Allen?
Logan or Morejon?
There's no guarantee and much of the perception is based on "stuff" and speculation.
Lauer could end up the better pitcher of all of these options.
But the fact Lauer has already had major league success,albeit limited,may also make another GM value him
higher than a guy still in A+ or AA.
It really not an issue of which prospect MIGHT be better than Lauer .. would be quite happy Lauer sliding down to 5 ... but they do need 5 SP so at this point (and the greater unknown of the prospects) Lauer is important to the future Padres.
Agree that he has some better trade value now ... but unless the Padres get some MAJOR piece in return that supports the future ... don't see the upside of the deal.
Now if CINN wanted to deal Senzel for Lauer / Potts ... would change my thinking (they don't). A trade like that fills a longer term need (3B) and shift the Padres' gamble to the SP prospects developing one more arm ... the prospect area of plenty.
#523 · December 24, 2018, 10:17 am
Quote from brent wolff on December 23, 2018, 6:34 pmI'm in favor of quantity over quality here. Lauer, Perdomo, & Lawson or something similar for Stroman. I'd rather hang onto Baez & L. Allen. What does everyone else think? Go Pads.
Brent, I agree... but hard to do. Perfect trade match would be like a bottom 10 Farm system team really looking to improve the depth of their system where they might go for more prospects. The issue is this is harder at the MLB level b/c you already have some idea of the player's impact/ability at that level vs. prospects it's speculation.
Toronto doesn't really fit that description: 2 elite position prospects, probably looking for top 100 P prospect/s for a guy of Stroman's caliber. Hope I'm wrong, but doubt it. Acquiring team has to feel like they're coming out ahead in the long run.
#524 · December 24, 2018, 10:21 am
Quote from brent wolff on December 23, 2018, 6:56 pm@Henry Silvestre, I don't see superstar potential in Lauer. I see more of a #4 or #5, crafty left-hand starter ceiling in Lauer. Baez has top of the rotation potential, #1, #2 or #3. I think AJP seems to be a go for broke type, prefers higher ceiling prospects over lower ceiling prospects. It will be interesting to see what happens. Go Pads.
Agree. Baez COULD become that top of the rotation guy. Lauer never will. Lauer's floor is higher & safer, but Baez's floor as a high leverage RP isn't THAT much lower, and ceiling is MUCH higher.
Toronto doesn't want a Lauer, b/c they're not trying to compete with NYY, Red Sox, & Rays in 2019... why they're trading Stroman. But other teams like Mets (dead concept now), Indians, I thought Lauer or Lucchessi might appeal b/c they can plug them right in to bottom of rotation.
#525 · December 25, 2018, 1:56 pm
Merry Christmas Padres fans!
Well we haven’t received any “gifts” this year for Christmas but on the other hand we haven’t had to say goodbye to any of our prospects either.
When will something happen?
Who will it be?
The anticipation is killing me......
#526 · December 25, 2018, 2:09 pm
Quote from David Nevin on December 25, 2018, 1:56 pmMerry Christmas Padres fans!
Well we haven’t received any “gifts” this year for Christmas but on the other hand we haven’t had to say goodbye to any of our prospects either.
When will something happen?
Who will it be?
The anticipation is killing me......
Merry Christmas MrP! Will you make it to Spring Training this year?
#527 · December 25, 2018, 5:37 pm
Unfortunately not this year.
But I am planning to make it in 2020.
#528 · December 26, 2018, 10:09 am
Since many of you have stated your distaste for multiple prospect trades for ML players. So let me throw one out to get some post Christmas discussion going. We send Luchessi, Erlin, Stammen, Yates, and Baez to NYY for Andujar and Gray. I know Andujar and his defense, but I looked at some quick stats and he is getting better as he gets older, so maybe he get to adequate and with the other INF options (Tatis, Urias, Hosmer, Kinsler late inning defense sub) maybe we can live with his glove to get bat into the line up. So go ahead and behead me! 🙂
#529 · December 26, 2018, 11:09 am
Quote from Booster SD on December 26, 2018, 10:09 amSince many of you have stated your distaste for multiple prospect trades for ML players. So let me throw one out to get some post Christmas discussion going. We send Luchessi, Erlin, Stammen, Yates, and Baez to NYY for Andujar and Gray. I know Andujar and his defense, but I looked at some quick stats and he is getting better as he gets older, so maybe he get to adequate and with the other INF options (Tatis, Urias, Hosmer, Kinsler late inning defense sub) maybe we can live with his glove to get bat into the line up. So go ahead and behead me!
After that trade .... what is the NYY Infield? (remember Gregorius is out until very late 2019 ... if he even returns and is a FA after the season). Would that deal make any sense for the NYY in their bid to overtake Boston?
After that trade ... what is the SD pitching staff after removing 4 of the returning arms (and the top end of the bullpen)? Would this make SD better for 2019 (and Gray is a FA after the season)?
Not sure the NYY see it this way but I think Stammen (1 year about $2.5MM) for Gray (1 year about $9.0MM) is a balanced deal given NYY want RP help ... have made it clear they are willing to move Gray ... end up clearing some salary to sign ???????? while remaining under the luxury tax threshold.
As for Andjuar ... I am not convinced the NYY will deal him even if they do sign Machado but if they did .... bet they shoot for a veteran quality SP.
In 2019 this may be a lose-lose from both teams and in the long term it then becomes Andjuar vs. Lucchesi which could go either way.
#530 · December 26, 2018, 11:11 am
All I can say is I'm so ready for more offense I may be willing to scarifice some defense.