Quote from fenn68 on January 19, 2021, 5:52 am

Quote from hoffy51 on January 19, 2021, 5:30 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 19, 2021, 4:42 am

Quote from hoffy51 on January 19, 2021, 3:15 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 18, 2021, 10:26 pm

Crazy to think that with how good we were last year that our opening day starter is now looking like our #5 with a couple of guys gunning for his spot.

I think this will be Paddock's last season with the Padres. Clevinger will be back next in 2022, and you will have Morejon, Gore, and Weathers with another year's experience. Also with Tommy Pham gone after this year, it wouldn't surprise me if a year from now Paddock is traded for an outfielder if he has a good season.

My mind was going down the same path assuming no major injuries. If Paddack is effective .. still cheap with three more years of control next winter ... he should be a good trade chip for an upgrade (hopefully a low cost / long control) for Pham.

Most seem convinced that the DH will be here in 2022 .... so LF and DH will need some quality upgrade that is unlikely coming out of the system in 2022. Plus need to set up for the departure of Myers the next season (assuming his option is not picked up).

I am hoping that Jorge Ona will be either our left fielder (he has lost a ton of weight), or the DH.

He has the potential ... so hope you are right. 2021 in AAA (or maybe AA to begin) will be big for him and the Padres strategy for next winter.

We will all find out of those 89 AB in AA in 2019 were a break out (348/417/539) or a hot streak and he is more the 2018 hitter in A+ hitting .239. (7K in 12 AB in the ML last season is inconclusive).

There will be room for him on the 26 man next year if he earns it.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 19, 2021, 6:25 am

If Profar comes in as a super sub, under $6M, then I am a little happier about that. If it is over $7M, then I think that SD would be better off spending the dollars elsewhere.

And if Profar is to be the main LFer in case of the DH, then I definitely think that SD can do better than Profar with the majority of the ABs in LF.

Quote from fenn68 on January 19, 2021, 7:11 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 19, 2021, 6:25 am

If Profar comes in as a super sub, under $6M, then I am a little happier about that. If it is over $7M, then I think that SD would be better off spending the dollars elsewhere.

And if Profar is to be the main LFer in case of the DH, then I definitely think that SD can do better than Profar with the majority of the ABs in LF.

Complex given our unknown on money to deploy and if there is a DH in the NL. Not sure the "do nothing" until they know on the DH is the best strategy as likely the targets will get signed elsewhere. No one, if given a decent offer, is going to wait to see if the Padres come calling with a better offer. Plus, if the DH is approved ... suddenly there are 14 new teams competing for those guys ... pushing the price up and probably out of the Padres range for the better options.

If I am a FA with talent ... first is the money ... second is playing time to set up the next FA ... third is certainty going into ST. Not convinced the Padres are currently in a position to handle the first two ... especially for a "better" option than Profar.

Even with the DH ... Padres seem bias to a "rotational" DH using starters ... if it is an INF Kim / Cronenworth gets playing time. Even if the starters start ... Kim (big ticket signing) or Cronenworth (ROY finalist) could get the DH role. So with Pham-Grisham-Myers ... the 4th OF likely would only get marginal playing time when OF are off.

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Make whatever move they can before ST ... fill out the roster ... react to changes when more is known (if needed). Down the road would have no problem with moving on from Mateo or O'Grady ... and Preller still has trade chips and potentially the best option comes via trade.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 19, 2021, 7:43 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 18, 2021, 10:28 pm

I am a little surprised Joey Lucchesi's trade value wasn't a little higher.  Basically a 1 for 1 trade for Mets #14 prospect lower level SH C/OF Endy Rodriguez a 20 y. o. off the radar (10K bonus) 2018 Intl sign.   Seems low for a guy going to the Mets who "intend to contend" as a CHEAP 4 yr control MLB SP, even a #5/#6.  Pitt probably better off getting the prospect than a guy like Joey given where they're at, but surprised they couldn't get more for him?

The Pirates can't afford a starting pitcher who is about to go to arbitration.

Sure seems like they could have just plugged him into their rotation and kept him.

Remember when we used to know how Pirate fans feel?

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 19, 2021, 7:46 am

On the "trade Paddack" front I think we need to see how this season plays out.

We will start to lose some of these guys in a couple years...I don't think we can be "certain" that all of Gore/Morejon/Weathers are going to

seamlessly replace these guys.

Hopefully Paddack shrugs off 2020 and goes back to dominating...then we either keep him and win it all or his trade value will sky rocket.

 

AJ needs to get busy restocking the system.

Might he be more likely to draft mostly College arms the next couple Drafts?

 

Quote from Ben Davey on January 19, 2021, 7:57 am

If you look at the starting position players you really love it, but we know an injury will happen at some point.  Where's the depth if/when someone gets hurt?  I think Kim, is exactly that for the infield.  If Tatis/Machado/Cro go down he starts at that position.  If Hosmer goes down Cro moves to first and Kim plays 2nd.  You still have quality at every position.  I dont think any of us see the OF in the same regard.  If Pham goes down are we really relying on Jorge Ona to be the every day starter?

Quote from fenn68 on January 19, 2021, 8:13 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 19, 2021, 7:46 am

On the "trade Paddack" front I think we need to see how this season plays out.

We will start to lose some of these guys in a couple years...I don't think we can be "certain" that all of Gore/Morejon/Weathers are going to

seamlessly replace these guys.

Hopefully Paddack shrugs off 2020 and goes back to dominating...then we either keep him and win it all or his trade value will sky rocket.

 

AJ needs to get busy restocking the system.

Might he be more likely to draft mostly College arms the next couple Drafts?

 

Could be interesting in the next couple of years if (or who) the Padres trade out of the SP... 3 years control of Darvish, Snell, and Lamet ... 4 years control of Paddack is a solid base. Musgrove and Clevinger are only 2 years.

Baring injuries ... even 2022 with Clevinger's return makes six veteran SP for five slots plus the top prospects (Gore, Morejon, and Weathers have a full development season to gauge if ML ready). Preller is going to be in a good position to make a trade(s) given that luxury of SP.

At some point Preller needs to start the transition to the next era of SP by inserting the prospects ... maybe stating in 2023. I know we have been heralding them for some time and could be losing the perspective that Gore, Morejon, and Weathers are only 21 and Lawson is only 23 ... still young for a ML SP ... two more years of development might seem long but not inappropriate. Good reports on Lange (19) and Medina (18) who could be filling in 2024-25.

Prospects need to show they are ML caliber and if they do ... any of the current projected starting 5 become trade candidates before they reach FA. Also, might see an extension discussion down the road with one or more of the current 5. Key is for Preller to shape a SP staff that is still playoff quality beyond 2023.

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As for the draft ... Padres are drafting late and think they will go HS first on a "harder sign" for the upside. Usually if a college type makes it to the late 20s ... probably little upside. Pitcher or position player ... whoever looks good.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on January 19, 2021, 8:16 am

Quote from Ben Davey on January 19, 2021, 7:57 am

If you look at the starting position players you really love it, but we know an injury will happen at some point.  Where's the depth if/when someone gets hurt?  I think Kim, is exactly that for the infield.  If Tatis/Machado/Cro go down he starts at that position.  If Hosmer goes down Cro moves to first and Kim plays 2nd.  You still have quality at every position.  I dont think any of us see the OF in the same regard.  If Pham goes down are we really relying on Jorge Ona to be the every day starter?

Which was kind of my point with Profar. I know he did well in LF last season, however would someone that has more OF experience be a better option over Profar? I know he is athletic, and did well for 30+ games, a true OFer IMO would be a better sign.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 19, 2021, 8:19 am

Looks as if Yates is getting close to signing with a team, and according to rumors, it looks like TOR.