Quote from Brian Connelly on January 18, 2021, 9:12 pm

After a strong finish, Musgrove is a clear breakout candidate for 2021. His underlying metrics were excellent in '20, with a punchout rate and an average exit velocity that ranked in the 90th percentile or better. Essentially: Musgrove strikes out a lot of hitters with two excellent breaking pitches. And when those hitters make contact, they don’t hit the ball very hard.

Lots of really good underlying numbers, and he’s definitely trending the right way.

Some @statcast background on Joe Musgrove ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/zgcW67dv5X

Musgrove is "Good to Great" (70% - 93% percentile in MLB) in 11 of the 13 pitching metrics.... for 4.5 MM in 2021... at a cost of our # 6 SP (who would not have been kept on roster > 2 years @ Arb $ due) and #12 (on MLB roster) RP, plus 3 prospects that are all 3+ years away.

Only below average are:  FB velo (33%)  & BB % (39%).  FB velo may preclude ever true #1-#2 Ace, but his BB were < 2.0/ 9 IP in Sept.... think he may have been pitching @ <100%  before that.

 

 

Quote from Ben Davey on January 18, 2021, 10:00 pm

The problem with the "lets sign someone better than Profar" is that  you are assuming the Padres have 10+ mil to spend still, and/or willing to go more than one year.  Nelson Cruz would be great but hes almost 90.  There is going to be a year when he just falls off a cliff (+ he has said repeatedly he wants a two year deal even if it is for less AAV).  Joc Pederson wouldnt be awful as he has pop and good D, but dear God his numbers last year were awful and he will probably want 10+ milion.  Michael Brantley is 34, but would want 13+ mil/yr and want the starting LF job.  If Profar is willing to sign for 5-6 mil and take a similar role to what he had last year then its great.

A few weeks ago Preller mentioned that he had offers out for Profar, Yates, and Rosethal.  It was speculated that they were low ball offers, with Preller saying it was the best the Padres could do.  Yates has better offers and reportedly already turned it down.  You would get better money if you are Profar or Rosenthal, but would you accept less to be in SD and a world series contender?

Quote from Ben Davey on January 18, 2021, 10:04 pm

In reading everything today, theres some stuff about Musgrove's fastball being his third maybe even his fourth best pitch, and yet was still throwing it 70% of the time.  He started throwing the slider and curve more and had a lot more success.  Weird how throwing your better pitches results in more success.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 18, 2021, 10:07 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on January 18, 2021, 7:48 pm

Back on December 19, I mentioned that MLB network's Hot Stove had done a comparison between Musgrove and Sonny Gray and basically found them comparable.  It seems many of the baseball pundits also are predicting a break-out year for Musgrove in 2021 making him worth the investment of a few prospects who will remain prospects for several years to come.  This acquisition takes a lot of pressure off Gore, Morejon and Weathers to be ready to go in ST and, depending upon Lamet's health, gives Paddack more time (as the 5th starter) to develop his craft.

Hate to give up on Head but he's not Hassell or Abrams although he has the potential to be a very good player one day.  By that time, I hope we have others in the pipeline that could fill that role but the window for challenging for playoff opportunities must always come first.

When I stat compiled to look at all the free agent & possible/likely SP trade candidates, the Trade possible I liked the most was Musgrove.   The guy I liked the least was Gray.  I thought Musgrove's arrow was up, he's cheap, and b/c he's "only" 2 years control, he would likely cost less in trade than the other 3 year guys.  I wondered "how much more" it would take than Joey + Javy Guerra to get him.  Well Bednar is < Guerra (higher floor, but WAY lower ceiling), which 'absorbs' some of  that additional cost of:  Head, O. Cruz, & Fellows.

Darvish subjectively cost the "least"of our 3 trades, but have to account for fact that Cubs did unload > 50 MM payroll/3 years Net $.

Musgrove doesn't have Gray's track record, and FB velo may fundamentally limit him to a degree.  But he has to be the most psyched guy in MLB to get traded from Pitt to SD; worst to first and his hometown.  I think he's going to have a great season for us!

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 18, 2021, 10:26 pm

Crazy to think that with how good we were last year that our opening day starter is now looking like our #5 with a couple of guys gunning for his spot.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 18, 2021, 10:28 pm

I am a little surprised Joey Lucchesi's trade value wasn't a little higher.  Basically a 1 for 1 trade for Mets #14 prospect lower level SH C/OF Endy Rodriguez a 20 y. o. off the radar (10K bonus) 2018 Intl sign.   Seems low for a guy going to the Mets who "intend to contend" as a CHEAP 4 yr control MLB SP, even a #5/#6.  Pitt probably better off getting the prospect than a guy like Joey given where they're at, but surprised they couldn't get more for him?

Quote from hoffy51 on January 19, 2021, 3:15 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 18, 2021, 10:26 pm

Crazy to think that with how good we were last year that our opening day starter is now looking like our #5 with a couple of guys gunning for his spot.

I think this will be Paddock's last season with the Padres. Clevinger will be back next in 2022, and you will have Morejon, Gore, and Weathers with another year's experience. Also with Tommy Pham gone after this year, it wouldn't surprise me if a year from now Paddock is traded for an outfielder if he has a good season.

Quote from fenn68 on January 19, 2021, 4:42 am

Quote from hoffy51 on January 19, 2021, 3:15 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 18, 2021, 10:26 pm

Crazy to think that with how good we were last year that our opening day starter is now looking like our #5 with a couple of guys gunning for his spot.

I think this will be Paddock's last season with the Padres. Clevinger will be back next in 2022, and you will have Morejon, Gore, and Weathers with another year's experience. Also with Tommy Pham gone after this year, it wouldn't surprise me if a year from now Paddock is traded for an outfielder if he has a good season.

My mind was going down the same path assuming no major injuries. If Paddack is effective .. still cheap with three more years of control next winter ... he should be a good trade chip for an upgrade (hopefully a low cost / long control) for Pham.

Most seem convinced that the DH will be here in 2022 .... so LF and DH will need some quality upgrade that is unlikely coming out of the system in 2022. Plus need to set up for the departure of Myers the next season (assuming his option is not picked up).

Quote from fenn68 on January 19, 2021, 5:08 am

Grossman signed with DET for $10MM/2 years (AAV $5MM) a week or so ago. He is a decent comp for Profar ... Grossman (31) now just a LF has a better career record while Profar (28) had a better WAR (slightly) in 2020 and provides a bit more versatility.

Not sure Profar gets a two year deal but $5MM should be in the zone for 2021. With the Grossman signing with DET, Profar’s options shrink since many thought DET was the landing zone for Profar. Should depress his “ask”.

If most teams only see Profar as a “super utility” player his options are limited since teams needing a starter have options (albeit more expensive options).

Doubt the Padres pay higher for someone for that role but they need an upgrade and some lesser options are there (e.g. DeShields) ... maybe a a million or so less.

Hard to see them having the money to add Rosenthal whose market should be still strong and push well over $5MM AAV and multi-year.