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#801 · January 15, 2021, 3:20 pm
Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2021, 3:13 pmPham will be interesting as an insight to his thinking.
Made $7.9MM (before proration) in 2020 and that was about double his 2018 pay. With minimal value in 2020 most were estimating the $8MM range. Injury was not his fault and an argument can be made that the last year of arbitration should reflect his whole body of work ... so a few millions more.
Looking at his 2018 and 2019 stats ... discounting the injury in 2020 ... a case could be made for maybe $12MM+/-. We will see his “ask” and the Padres “offer” ... hopefully not to contentious.
Whoa! The past year has to have SOME bearing. All the talk of should or shouldn't we tender him an offer at all would very likely have changed if he's in the 12 MM range. My argument to keep him was the reverse; that since he would be closer to 8 MM, we are likely "saving" 2-4 MM vs the arb raise we would have gladly paid if he had been healthy in 2020 (and NOT debated whether he should return).
#802 · January 15, 2021, 3:35 pm
What is tricky .... baring a settlement .... the arbitrator picks between the Padres offer and the Pham ask. IF the Padres came in around the $8MM and Pham came in at $12MM at the mercy of the arbitrator and, since it was not Pham’s fault he was injured in the line of duty, I could see a neutral, non-baseball, arbitrator taking Pham’s number.
Trying to be “neutral” ... and basing 2021 off of how he earned the 2020 contact ... something in the $10-11MM would seem fair for Pham based on his full body of work. We will see if either side put that number on the table (or close to it).
#803 · January 15, 2021, 3:38 pm
Pham settled at 8.9
#804 · January 15, 2021, 3:42 pm
Altavilla settles at $850K.
Preller keeps his record of no arbitration hearings.
#805 · January 15, 2021, 4:36 pm
40 man roster under contract .... check
international FA signed .... check
one month to the opening of ST / 10 weeks to opening day
what will Preller do with all this free time? Bet a lot of phone calls to GMs and agents ... even more than before .... to try to make those final tweaks.
#806 · January 15, 2021, 4:45 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 15, 2021, 3:38 pmPham settled at 8.9
Altavilla -50K below high side = he, Lamet, Pagan, & Caratini 900K < "high side" MLBTR estimate total...
.... undone by Pham alone being 800K > MLBTR highest. Their model simply didn't work for Pham, where the high estimate forecast only a 200K raise on 7.9 MM in 2020, and he got 1 MM.
I'm OK with a mega motivated Pham @ 9 MM. Would not have been if 8 figures+, and I'm a "fan of Pham"
#807 · January 15, 2021, 4:46 pm
Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2021, 4:36 pm40 man roster under contract .... check
international FA signed .... check
one month to the opening of ST / 10 weeks to opening day
what will Preller do with all this free time? Bet a lot of phone calls to GMs and agents ... even more than before .... to try to make those final tweaks.
I predict vast majority of focus goes to Tatis extension now. Padres COULD open camp without a 4th OF/CF, RP-closer, or SP right now, but I'm sure would like to secure Fernando before opening camp to cement those payroll expenses in place ... ideally before making any other moves.
#808 · January 15, 2021, 5:02 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on January 15, 2021, 4:46 pmQuote from fenn68 on January 15, 2021, 4:36 pm40 man roster under contract .... check
international FA signed .... check
one month to the opening of ST / 10 weeks to opening day
what will Preller do with all this free time? Bet a lot of phone calls to GMs and agents ... even more than before .... to try to make those final tweaks.
I predict vast majority of focus goes to Tatis extension now. Padres COULD open camp without a 4th OF/CF, RP-closer, or SP right now, but I'm sure would like to secure Fernando before opening camp to cement those payroll expenses in place ... ideally before making any other moves.
Agree settling Tatis and his cash flow for the next 3 years may be critical IF part of the FA signings include multi-year deals (e.g. Tanaka).
Note the NYY just signed the rebound candidate Kluber ... for $11MM / 1 year. So much for the idea of signing “name” rebound candidates (see Hamels) for a very low base and incentives. Even if “lower” ... probably still pricy.
That last bench piece will likely be really a league minimum type so some money is there for a RP or SP.
#809 · January 15, 2021, 5:26 pm
Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2021, 5:02 pmQuote from Brian Connelly on January 15, 2021, 4:46 pmQuote from fenn68 on January 15, 2021, 4:36 pm40 man roster under contract .... check
international FA signed .... check
one month to the opening of ST / 10 weeks to opening day
what will Preller do with all this free time? Bet a lot of phone calls to GMs and agents ... even more than before .... to try to make those final tweaks.
I predict vast majority of focus goes to Tatis extension now. Padres COULD open camp without a 4th OF/CF, RP-closer, or SP right now, but I'm sure would like to secure Fernando before opening camp to cement those payroll expenses in place ... ideally before making any other moves.
Agree settling Tatis and his cash flow for the next 3 years may be critical IF part of the FA signings include multi-year deals (e.g. Tanaka).
Note the NYY just signed the rebound candidate Kluber ... for $11MM / 1 year. So much for the idea of signing “name” rebound candidates (see Hamels) for a very low base and incentives. Even if “lower” ... probably still pricy.
That last bench piece will likely be really a league minimum type so some money is there for a RP or SP.
Serious over pay for someone that has pitched 36 innings in two years.
#810 · January 15, 2021, 5:28 pm
I thought Padres paid a little more than necessary for Pham and Altavilla and a little less for Lames. However, I'd much rather pay 8.9 M for Pham than 11 M for Kluber!
The FA market for shortstops next year is starting to take shape with the pre-arb settlements - 22.3 for Lindor, 13.75 for Seager and 11.6 for Baez. Story was already on board for 18.5 and Turner, although not part of the FA class next year, got 13.0. Correa has yet to settle/go to arb but probably in the 13.5 M range. The longer the Padres wait to get something done with Tatis Jr. the more it is going to cost them for probably a shorter length of contract extension. Hope we can make it happen soon. If Tatis Jr. plays a full season (150+ games), hits 35-40 HR, steals 25-30 bases, drives in 90-100 runs, hits somewhere between .280 and .290 and still plays a very good defense in 2021 at 22 years of age, at what amount will that contract extension start?