Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2021, 10:03 am

We should remember that all teams will have a similar inning management issue after 2020 (even the LAD). So, how the Padres fare will be impacted by the depth of other teams #4-5 starters and long relief ... and how they choose to manage that.

Padres start the season with 24 games in 25 days (off day after game 7) ... that is a pretty good hit right out of the blocks when pitchers are still building endurance for a game / season.

Can use a spot 6th starter or pull starters early relying on the pen earlier (not sure Padres have that pen). Maybe a few bullpen days to break it up if the starters go deep in games.

Core of my concern ... as in all distance races in track or horse racing .... those who go all out initially usually fade down the stretch and get passed by someone who paced the race. Same with olympic athletes ... usually take a controlled approach to early races to peak during the games (winning there is the objective). 162 game / 6 months is a distance race and hitting peak for the playoffs is key.

Challenge for the Padres will be the best approach to win games while keeping the SP effective at the end.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 15, 2021, 11:07 am

Padres start the season with 24 games in 25 days (off day after game 7) ... that is a pretty good hit right out of the blocks when pitchers are still building endurance for a game / season.

Wow.  That is way more intense/compact than most Aprils - start of season.

Not as bad as it sounds when you map it out though.  Assuming healthy: 1- Darvish, 2-Snell, 3-Lamet, 4-Paddack, 5-TBD

1st 7 games:  1-5, then Darvish & Snell on normal 4-day rest.  OK to hit pen hard games 6 & 7 with off day coming.

After off day:  Lamet, Paddack, #5, Darvish, Snell all on 5 days rest.  That's games 8-12.

13th game call up a 6th SP to make that start:  #6, Lamet, Paddack, #5, Darvish, Snell.  That's games 13-18.

#6 SP starts game 19, then rolled back down to Minors, with a RP back up.  Then main 5 SP as above for last 5 games.

Winds up:  #1 & #2 make 5 starts each, but only 1 each on "normal" 4 day rest, #3 - # 5 make 4 starts each, but all on 5 days rest.  #6 makes 2 starts on 5 days rest.  Then all 5 are on 5 days rest after the next off day:  games 25-29....  heading into Game 30 only two guys have made a start once each on 4 days rest, but #6 SP has only had to make 2 starts but might start Game 30.

The "hard" part is probably navigating games 13-19 down a RP.  Just feel like you can "roll" the last guy in the pen down/up from AAA; but the 7th & 8th guys in pen do HAVE to have minors options left to do so.

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 15, 2021, 12:09 pm

you don't win pennants in April but you sure as hell can lose one if you get out of the gate really bad. Play the game for the day and win THAT day.

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2021, 12:34 pm

Still early but a few Padres have settled prior to exchanging arbitration figures ... two remain outstanding:

Altavilla .... no idea why since he is a $600K+/- guy.

Pham ... not a surprise ... think he took TB or arb (and lost). High “self worth” ... money is important. $7.9MM contract going into 2020 and most sites had him in the $8MM+ range.  It will be interesting to see the number from his side.

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2021, 1:21 pm

Padres are in decent shape to go with a 5 man rotation (at least quantity of innings) ... probably better than most. Without missing starts would have 32 starts (5-6 innings per start) ... so need to deliver 160-190 innings. Darvish (2019), Snell (2018), Lucchesi (2019) all have gone to that level and Paddack went 140 (2019) while being paced. So, good chance those four can deliver the innings. Lamet does not have that track record and if Lucchesi is not #5 ... neither do the prospects.

Rothchild is the key. He will need to be on top of the performance of each pitcher and push for a "spot starter" break for the staff or a "skipped start" if specific pitcher looks to be weakening. Need to be prepared for those situations if planing to win through the entire season.

Given the bullpen's most probably outcome .... Hill/Castillo would be the only ones that would be available / logical to option if need a spot starter ... and then lose them for 10 days. Given last season, maybe just a "bullpen day" works (if the pen is not being over worked). The lack of minor league options is going to be a pain to manage around.

Would that suggest the 13th pitcher should have a "long man" profile ... to serve if needed as such in the pen and be used as that spot starter.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 15, 2021, 2:27 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2021, 1:21 pm

Would that suggest the 13th pitcher should have a "long man" profile ... to serve if needed as such in the pen and be used as that spot starter.

That is the exact role that Colin McHugh said he was looking to fill. And he only signed for $600K in 2020. Now he didnt throw a pitch in 2020 either, cant recall if it was opt out or injury. I think I recall from the interview that he was feeling good and healthy.

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2021, 3:02 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 15, 2021, 2:27 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2021, 1:21 pm

Would that suggest the 13th pitcher should have a "long man" profile ... to serve if needed as such in the pen and be used as that spot starter.

That is the exact role that Colin McHugh said he was looking to fill. And he only signed for $600K in 2020. Now he didnt throw a pitch in 2020 either, cant recall if it was opt out or injury. I think I recall from the interview that he was feeling good and healthy.

It boils down to if he is healthy ... he did opt out of 2020 primarily he was not recovering from a December, 2019 elbow procedure. He would sure fit the role.

No idea if he is holding a “showcase” to show he is healthy or is willing to sign a minor league “make good” deal. Think his Boston deal was low base with big incentives ... so shouldn’t be a hard sign.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 15, 2021, 3:02 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2021, 12:34 pm

Still early but a few Padres have settled prior to exchanging arbitration figures ... two remain outstanding:

Altavilla .... no idea why since he is a $600K+/- guy.

Pham ... not a surprise ... think he took TB or arb (and lost). High “self worth” ... money is important. $7.9MM contract going into 2020 and most sites had him in the $8MM+ range.  It will be interesting to see the number from his side.

Lamet, Pagan, & Caratini cumulatively were 850K less than the "high" MLBTR projection I had plugged in, so that's good.

Guessing Altavilla is either a very small difference like 25-50K between he & team OR a relatively significant difference b/c he's coming off minimum salary like 150K+ spread.  OR Pads as usual are just slow to announce.

Pham I expected, but likely a relatively small difference 2 sides on top of a large "given" salary base of 8 MM, so he doesn't have much to lose.  OR he & agent are being unreasonable & it's a 1 MM+ spread.  We'll see...

Quote from fenn68 on January 15, 2021, 3:13 pm

Pham will be interesting as an insight to his thinking.

Made $7.9MM (before proration) in 2020 and that was about double his 2018 pay. With minimal value in 2020 most were estimating the $8MM range. Injury was not his fault and an argument can be made that the last year of arbitration should reflect his whole body of work ... so a few millions more.

Looking at his 2018 and 2019 stats ... discounting the injury in 2020 ... a case could be made for maybe $12MM+/-. We will see his “ask” and the Padres “offer” ... hopefully not to contentious.