Quote from Randy Manese on November 6, 2020, 3:17 pm

Those are the only two I have outstanding.  I  thought Oakland was going to take cash vice Perez, but Perez  does have some upside  so not entirely surprising.

Quote from fenn68 on November 7, 2020, 9:46 am

The more I read ... the more uncertain about the future environment to plan towards.

The 2021 DH in the NL is still being negotiated with the owners wanting to get something (TBD) in return for giving the DH (and the cost) to the MLBPA.

Will there be a full 2021 season? Owners don't appear to want to lose more money so the decision may be based on the viability of having full (or a high percentage) of fans in the stands ... but when will that be known? February (as ST opens) or later forcing a delay in the season?

IF the 2021 season is delayed, the owners / MLBPA have to return to negotiation as to the rules / conditions ... think a redo of the 2020 negotiations BUT with both sides trying to do better in the end result than they did in 2020. Plus, getting close to 2021 CBA negotiations, neither side will want to concede anything that may impact those negotiations.

Then leap into 2022. Will there be a lockout / strike that delays the season. Will the new CBA have a universal DH? What control issues / contract issues be modified via the new CBA?

If you are a GM ... team lost money in 2020 ... team may lose money in 2021 (delayed start / no attendance) and 2022 (strike / lockout). Each team will be different, but maybe should be focused on putting their team in the best position for 2023? Preserve long control pieces and move (don't acquire) short term assets?

If you are a GM or a player ... push for a 1 year deal or a 2 year deal or a 3 year deal? Player will not get paid if no games but is it better to be under contract so when the games resume they have a job (and get paid) rather than a FA looking for a job? If you are the GM, want some certainty on the roster and can you leverage the AAV down for some security through 2023 for the players?

Hard to see many moves before early spring ... other than "housecleaning" for non-tender / Rule 5.

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 11, 2020, 8:38 am

From YardBarker...  Baseball writer Dan Federico reported Monday that the Padres are emerging as an early suitor for Trevor Bauer. Federico notes Bauer’s close relationship with Padres righty Mike Clevinger, his former Cleveland Indians teammate.

Interesting to see if really any fire to THIS smoke...

Hard to see the $ "working", but there might be paths.  Likely trading Davies?  He & my favorite "trade Stammen" idea (include what you have to for someone to take the whole salary) could be close to 15 MM saved.   Low 2021 salary rising in 2022 with mega salary in 2023?   Signing like this would preclude Rosenthal & Profar.  Squeeze Kirby into an incentive deal & go CHEAP bench?

Let's see if this develops further...

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 11, 2020, 8:46 am

Giants signed Minors FA  3B Jason Vosler (L).... to an MLB deal.  I thought this might happen & wish Padres had added him to their 40 end of last season.  I get that he's blocked by Manny & Hos, but "poor man's" Moreland if DH does return to NL in 2021 which MLBTR & others have speculated will happen (players want it to).  20+ HR 3 seasons in a row in Minors.

Oh well... wish him luck except vs us.  Remember when we were all "excited" we got him in trade, thought we should protect him in Rule 5, and had him & Ty France competing to be our starting 3B... 🙂

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 11, 2020, 9:40 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 11, 2020, 8:38 am

From YardBarker...  Baseball writer Dan Federico reported Monday that the Padres are emerging as an early suitor for Trevor Bauer. Federico notes Bauer’s close relationship with Padres righty Mike Clevinger, his former Cleveland Indians teammate.

Interesting to see if really any fire to THIS smoke...

Hard to see the $ "working", but there might be paths.  Likely trading Davies?  He & my favorite "trade Stammen" idea (include what you have to for someone to take the whole salary) could be close to 15 MM saved.   Low 2021 salary rising in 2022 with mega salary in 2023?   Signing like this would preclude Rosenthal & Profar.  Squeeze Kirby into an incentive deal & go CHEAP bench?

Let's see if this develops further...

"Early suitor" is a far way from "early favorite" ... and since Preller calls on everyone that call may just translate to "suitor". Whether it is 1 year deal or long term deal ... big money for SD.

Bauer being "unique" ... has been courting every team to be in the bidding and has opened the door to short or long term arrangements now that he is a FA. Money, being on a team that values analytics (and HIS analytics), gives him freedom, and is a World Series contender gets a deal done.

Watch out for the Mets with new owner Cohen wanting to make a major splash. Creating a SP staff of: Bauer (likely Cy Young); DeGrom (Cy Young); Stroman (accepted QO); Snydergaard (returning for 3/20 TJ); and Peterson (quality rookie season) ... he has the money and is clearly a homegrown METS fan. If (as they should) see 2021 weakness in MIAMI, WASHINGTON, PHILADELPHIA, and ATLANTA .... no better time to announce you presence.

Quote from fenn68 on November 11, 2020, 10:40 am

IF the Padres sign Bauer (or any high priced option), I think they have to keep Davies and Pham for their last control years ... and need to handle that money spike.

With the high cost of Bauer in 2021, the plan would be to win .... under the radar Davies (for Qualified MLB SP) the 10th best ERA (2.73) and was 19th in innings pitched. Over a 162 game slate, the Padres will need him considering the injury concerns on Lamet and Clevinger and the uncertainty surrounding Paddack's rebound or any of the prospects delivering in 2021.

Basically Bauer+Lamet+Clevinger+Davies+? has the greater chance to win than Bauer+Lamet+Clevinger+?+? .... so if spending big for Bauer have to keep the rest of the roster robust.

Quote from fenn68 on November 12, 2020, 7:34 am

Tossing in a different strategy on signing a FA this winter .... considering:

1. Padres had a weakness hitting LHP

2. DH is highly probably for 2022 and beyond and maybe in 2021

3. If speculation on payroll is valid, maybe $10MM to add

4. No major RHH bat in the system arriving near term

5. Position players are more “reliable” health wise than pitchers making an investment in a longer term contract safer (less risk)

6. Padres are loaded with high quality pitching prospects

How about: Marcel Ozuna?

MLBTradeRumors has him as the #4 FA and getting a 4 year / $72MM ($18MM AAV) ... 30 years old ... bad defensively (but so is Pham) but will easily slide to DH when that opens up. Basically locks in that RHH power for 4 years.

How to pay $18MM ... non-tender Pham ($8MM and FA after the season) and use the $10MM payroll growth.

Basically more confident in the current roster delivering quality pitching than in offense both in 2021 and then beyond.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 12, 2020, 8:27 am

I think Ozuna would be a great add, that would fit well with the other Latin core players that we have and love. If you were to DFA Pham to get the money for Ozuna; and if they add the DH in 2021, then you could either slide Grisham to LF and go with Allen as your light bat CF. Or keep Grisham in CF, and live with the light offense in LF with Allen. Either way, an OF defense of Grisham, Allen, and Myers should be a nice defensive set.

Yes, you could Myers to LF. However, I would just leave him alone in RF and batting 6th, and take what we got last season. Defensive metrics doesnt seem to like Myers in RF; however IMO, he passed the eye test in RF from most of the games I saw last year.

Quote from WindsorUK on November 12, 2020, 8:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 12, 2020, 7:34 am

Tossing in a different strategy on signing a FA this winter .... considering:

1. Padres had a weakness hitting LHP

2. DH is highly probably for 2022 and beyond and maybe in 2021

3. If speculation on payroll is valid, maybe $10MM to add

4. No major RHH bat in the system arriving near term

5. Position players are more “reliable” health wise than pitchers making an investment in a longer term contract safer (less risk)

6. Padres are loaded with high quality pitching prospects

How about: Marcel Ozuna?

MLBTradeRumors has him as the #4 FA and getting a 4 year / $72MM ($18MM AAV) ... 30 years old ... bad defensively (but so is Pham) but will easily slide to DH when that opens up. Basically locks in that RHH power for 4 years.

How to pay $18MM ... non-tender Pham ($8MM and FA after the season) and use the $10MM payroll growth.

Basically more confident in the current roster delivering quality pitching than in offense both in 2021 and then beyond.

I'm really surprised we didn't look at him when Florida was having it's fire sale a few years ago.

I'd be  up for that.