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#81 · November 12, 2020, 10:12 am
The Padres are working toward a two-year contract with right-hander Mike Clevinger, reports Fansided’s Robert Murray (via Twitter). A two-year pact would buy out Clevinger’s remaining two years of arbitration, creating cost certainty for the Friars and granting some extra financial security for the pitcher himself. It would not, however, provide the Padres with any additional club control over Clevinger, who is currently on track to reach free agency after the 2022 campaign.
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I can see the motivation for certainty on both sides. Padres probably would like to back load opening up some small additional payroll space in 2021 but maybe gain a firm number for 2022 if they plan to sign a FA for more than one season control. The oft injured Clevinger may want the insurance of a 2 year deal to guard against his arm blowing out in 2021.
We are not likely talking about much money in 2021 since he was projected only $5.2MM in arbitration ... not going to shave much off that. Keep an eye out for the 2022 amount. Even with an outstanding 2021, hard to see the arbitration process moving his salary past $10MM and with a bad year would still hold around $5MM ... so working off a mean of around $7.5MM? (left off the worst case of he blows out his arm and gets DFA next winter).
What is interesting is how both the club and agent factor in the chance of a work stoppage in 2022 ... a period when Clevinger would not get paid (not an incentive to defer a lot into 2022 for him)
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Now certainty is good for both sides so the fact that we are not talking big dollars is still justifiable for a 2 year deal. That may be the thinking on some other arbitration players also, get that certainty locked in.
From the Padres side ... certainty on key players MIGHT allow them to pursue FA differently (pay more) or MIGHT reflect the need to tamp down 2022 or be forced into some moves to reduce payroll going forward. ?????
#82 · November 12, 2020, 1:09 pm
For Clevinger the smart play is to get any $ he can guaranteed as bonus (or buyout). That $ is paid out at 100%. Salary can be prorated like last year if season < 162 games 2021 or 2022. 1 MM upfront as bonus has more value right now than an "extra" 1 MM salary in either year of the deal.
Padres might be able to shrink the total owed by guaranteeing some; even if it's likely stretched out over 2 (or more?) years.
#83 · November 12, 2020, 1:41 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on November 12, 2020, 1:09 pmFor Clevinger the smart play is to get any $ he can guaranteed as bonus (or buyout). That $ is paid out at 100%. Salary can be prorated like last year if season < 162 games 2021 or 2022. 1 MM upfront as bonus has more value right now than an "extra" 1 MM salary in either year of the deal.
Padres might be able to shrink the total owed by guaranteeing some; even if it's likely stretched out over 2 (or more?) years.
Given the unknowns around 2021 and 2022 for both the teams and players ... we may see a lot of "creative" contracts being worked.
Not specific to Clevinger but in general not sure I would want to be a FA after the 2021 season in the midst of the CBA negotiations (teams likely not signing anyone without knowing the rules) and maybe a flood of FA on the market ... combo of "scheduled" FA and this year's FA signing one year deal. Big supply and low demand! Once things get settled on the CBA ... securing any job may be difficult in 2022. Might that be an incentive for FA to push for 2-3 year deals now at a lower AAV? Players negotiating their last Arb year open the door for negotiation on that first FA year?
If the odds suggest the winter after 2022 is back to "normal" that may be a better landing spot for a FA ... but still crowded ... for some players a lower AAV on a 3 year deal (ending after 2023) might be even a better strategy.
Could go a lot of ways give teams and players/agents all see the world differently.
#84 · November 12, 2020, 1:42 pm
This is fantastic news.
When if they don’t come to an agreement it means they certainly aren’t worried about his arm.
#85 · November 12, 2020, 3:55 pm
Did a back of the envelope guess on the future payroll if FA depart and arbitration numbers are granted "reasonably". To me it makes the case for the Padres (for the right player) going at least 3 years with a back loaded deal. Some net drop in 2022 (mainly from Pham and Davies) but in 2023 a major drop from Myers and Hosmer more than offsetting any arbitration increases. Payroll could be under $100MM. "Big money" for Tatis probably starts in 2024. Might be even more space if Hosmer opts out after 2022 when his salary drops to $13MM.
With current and likely 2021 cash flow issues for the club and the potential for a work stoppage cutting the pay for players in 2022 .... both sides may see the value in lowering the pay for both 2021 and 2022 and backloading until 2023 when things get back to normal cash flow and player mobility.
#86 · November 12, 2020, 4:02 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on November 12, 2020, 1:42 pmThis is fantastic news.
When if they don’t come to an agreement it means they certainly aren’t worried about his arm.
You are probably right but always leave room for the opposite interpretation. Maybe they are looking for a "Garrett Richards" solution before they announce the elbow surgery?
Padres don't want to pay premium in 2021 for an IL player but don't want to non-tender an asset they payed a ton to get. Try for a two year deal with this hopefully productive year (2022) the year getting the bigger pay and keeping 2021 low (helping cash flow).
Clevinger should be amenable since getting a decent 2021 FA deal while getting elbow surgery is not easy.
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Wouldn't be surprised (despite the report of a 2 year deal) that an agreement ends up with buying out one FA year (or at least a club option for 2023).
#87 · November 12, 2020, 6:11 pm
I just don’t see them doing that again.
‘We are so close and it didn’t work with Richards and they lost so much money in 2020 I just don’t see them committing to a player who may need surgery and not even play or contribute.
‘Take that money and sign a “healthy” free agent.
So I’m gonna assume their interest is based on him being healthy.
I guess we will know once they sign him based on the dollars involved.
#88 · November 12, 2020, 8:44 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on November 12, 2020, 6:11 pmI just don’t see them doing that again.
‘We are so close and it didn’t work with Richards and they lost so much money in 2020 I just don’t see them committing to a player who may need surgery and not even play or contribute.
‘Take that money and sign a “healthy” free agent.
So I’m gonna assume their interest is based on him being healthy.
I guess we will know once they sign him based on the dollars involved.
The probably think he can be healthy (not sure he has been declared so yet) but also not thinking he will need surgery. Will not really know until ST and he is throwing in earnest.
Maybe the two year deal (at a lower AAV given the risk mitigation for Clevinger) gives them some protection of getting some production at least in 2022 if things go wrong in 2021 ... he is elite when healthy and they gave a lot for him. Not sure they can get his quality with the comparable cost FA on the market.
Still think guaranteeing two years to a pitcher with some injury history (even at a favorable AAV) should earn the Padres a club option for that first FA year buyout at “fair market value”. Otherwise not sure what the guaranteed contract does for the Padres since they would control him via arbitration .... unless a real favorable salary in 2022 / AAV.
#89 · November 12, 2020, 8:55 pm
Padres are likely in negotiation with all their arbitration eligible players trying to get deals done before the Dec 2 tender deadline .... should be interesting to see which (if any) are also discussing more than one year deals. Have to think Lamet .... maybe Pagan and Strahm .... all with multiple arbitration years in play.
Any chance they try to get a multi year with either Pham or Davies ... buying a FA year or two? Pham maybe because there is no clear replacement for 2022 and might get a deal considering his lackluster 2020. Davies (the Rodney Dangerfield of SP) because he is good and reliable as they slow walk the transition to the prospects? Should be able to trade them if the future has upgrades.
#90 · November 13, 2020, 8:02 am
Any chance they try to get a multi year with either Pham or Davies ... buying a FA year or two?
I'd say extremely unlikely. Players don't have incentive to push out their FA further. Especially Pham.