Quote from BoosterSD on January 13, 2021, 1:44 pm

I would think, that you could see some piggyback starts as well. So you can keep the bullpen as fresh as possible as well for the playoffs.

Maybe a combo of Paddack/Luchessi and Tanaka/Morejon for spots 4 and 5. Allowing the bull pen to "concentrate" on the top 3 starts and then depending on score in starts of #4 and #5 we save the big bull pen bullets and use Luchessi and Morejon and then the lower bull pen guys such as Stammen and such.

Could Colin McHugh be a good add, depending on health? He has playoff experience, and in an XM interview mentioned he would like to find a team that would allow him to both spot start and work in the bull pen. As that is what he likes to do.

Quote from fenn68 on January 13, 2021, 1:45 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 13, 2021, 12:10 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 13, 2021, 10:59 am

Quote from Randy Manese on January 13, 2021, 10:39 am

I'd like to pry Austin Hays out of the Baltimore Orioles OF.  RH hitter who is very good defensively in CF and is a player on the rise.  Baltimore has a lot of OF's and more on the way.  Needs controllable pitching until young prospects are ready.  This is going to be a good team in a couple of years.

If we are looking at a trade option, an article on CBS listed possible trade options, and they listed Ketel Marte as a dark horse trade candidate. He is under control for up to four more years via team options, between $15-33M. Fits the SD open window time frame with this large core. Can play 2B and CF. Is a switch hitter that hits lefties better than righties. So you could keep in either CF or LF, based on who you think is the better CF of Grisham or Marte. AZ has a young very decent catcher in house, so maybe a package of Ona, Baez, Lawson, and ?

I would think there's little chance the D Backs trade Marte....or at least to an NL West team.

 

 

Would add that the compensation to get Marte would be very very large. Consider:

Marte is only 27

under control for four years (two being club option years) and if kept ... an AAV of just under $10MM

AZ regular in 2018 and 2019 playing a full season of games

2019 he was an All-Star and 4th in the MVP voting

======

For the right price AZ would deal Marte to the Padres ... what is that price to satisfy AZ and is that price too much for a “super utility” player.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 13, 2021, 2:16 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 13, 2021, 1:45 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 13, 2021, 12:10 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 13, 2021, 10:59 am

Quote from Randy Manese on January 13, 2021, 10:39 am

I'd like to pry Austin Hays out of the Baltimore Orioles OF.  RH hitter who is very good defensively in CF and is a player on the rise.  Baltimore has a lot of OF's and more on the way.  Needs controllable pitching until young prospects are ready.  This is going to be a good team in a couple of years.

If we are looking at a trade option, an article on CBS listed possible trade options, and they listed Ketel Marte as a dark horse trade candidate. He is under control for up to four more years via team options, between $15-33M. Fits the SD open window time frame with this large core. Can play 2B and CF. Is a switch hitter that hits lefties better than righties. So you could keep in either CF or LF, based on who you think is the better CF of Grisham or Marte. AZ has a young very decent catcher in house, so maybe a package of Ona, Baez, Lawson, and ?

I would think there's little chance the D Backs trade Marte....or at least to an NL West team.

 

 

Would add that the compensation to get Marte would be very very large. Consider:

Marte is only 27

under control for four years (two being club option years) and if kept ... an AAV of just under $10MM

AZ regular in 2018 and 2019 playing a full season of games

2019 he was an All-Star and 4th in the MVP voting

======

For the right price AZ would deal Marte to the Padres ... what is that price to satisfy AZ and is that price too much for a “super utility” player.

One, I think the DH is still going to show up in the NL, and we only have Pham for one more year. And as you have mentioned, no one really ready to take his place. So, at max he would only be a "super utility" for one year. And then he takes his place as the starting LF or CF depending on who is really better in CF, him or Grisham. Plus, you cant really rely on Pham, Grisham, and Myers all playing 162 this year. There will be plenty of ABs for Marte this season.

Quote from fenn68 on January 13, 2021, 2:33 pm

Boils down to what the Padres would have to give AZ ... I would like Marte for the reasons you said.

Pretty sure it starts with Cronenworth (have no problem with that with Kim and the fact that Marte is primarily an INF) plus at least two prospects ... good prospects not named Gore.

As for sliding in to replace Pham in 2022 ... yes but need to consider who else may be available to fill that role via FA next winter (or alternate trade).

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 13, 2021, 3:09 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2021, 8:37 am

The AAV for Hendriks is confusing ... the contract is 3 years guaranteed and $54MM guaranteed ... all the option / deferred payment issues are control / cash flow issues but, as I understand it outside the AAV calculation for luxury tax purposes (probably irrelevant).

So:

Payroll reported: $13MM - $13MM - $13MM - $15MM(option / buyout)

Cash: $13MM - $13MM - $13MM - then $15MM or deferred payments over years

Luxury Tax: $18MM - $18MM - $18MM - $0MM based on "guaranteed" money / years

If the payroll reporting sites were confusing before ... we now have a new level of confusion.

So if Hendricks matches his highest innings pitched next season he will still be getting paid $200,000 per inning!

Glad we didn’t pay that.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on January 13, 2021, 4:03 pm

Ketel Marte is an excellent player that would be good as a replacement for Pham or Myers if we didn't have them as starters , however, he doesn't really fit that short term 4th OF profile for this year.  The cost to acquire him would be at least one top prospect and the cost of his contract at 6.4M and 8.4M for the next two years (in total, 32.8 M through 2024, but with club options in 2023 and 2024) puts other needs at risk.

We have OF's coming that are going to be making league minimums in the near future - Abrams is probably first in 2022.  My idea on Hays is that he can be acquired at a reasonable price, is making close to league minimum, is a very good defensive OF and, at 25, has flashed possibilities of developing into a very solid player - kind of like Grisham.   I'm sure there are others out there that fit that criteria but I think unless we have another Yu Darvish deal, a trade within our division is not going to happen.

Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2021, 4:03 pm

On MLBTR "chat" today a side comment from the moderator (based on his read of a D. Lin comment) that the Padres were not looking to add a bench piece. That made me scratch my head.

Maybe the Lin comment was geared more to not actively looking to add NOW BUT,

1. COULD the Padres be prioritizing their limited additional money of getting the better SP/RP options?
2. COULD the Padres be waiting to see if there is a DH before determining the best bench option?
3. COULD the Padres be out of money?
4. COULD the Padres see the FA options for the last bench slot (and not seeing it that critical) and are just willing to wait until the market settles and get someone cheaper
5. COULD the Padres see (with the potential of excess out of option RP) see a trade option just as good

Clearly, we don't know ... so stay tuned.

Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2021, 4:09 pm

Part 2: who is in line for that 5th bench slot?

1. Caratini ... C ... switch hitter
2. Kim ... INF ... RHH
3. O'Grady ... OF ... LHH
4. Mateo.. INF/OF/PR .... no hitter
5. ?????????

Just hard for me to envision any of the  three 40 man roster position players holding that role: Campusano, Ona, Marcano ... all lack experience ... none would supplant any regular for playing time ... all need to be playing regularly in the minors.

Padres did sign a RHH INF ... Tanielu ... good minor league stats. Not sure of any other minor league options currently in the system so he, now, may have the inside track.

Guessing that around the start of ST they sign a ML veteran to a minor league / make good deal at a low end cost to give Tanielu some competition.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 15, 2021, 9:26 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 13, 2021, 12:07 pm

Everyone knows I have always been a proponent of the 6 man rotation but now that we have 2-3 top arms in the rotation I am less enthused.

While I love the idea of reducing the innings on these guys, losing starts from guys like Snell,Darvish and Lamet only to give them to Lucchesi or another 6th guy doesn't thrill me.

That was always the argument against a 6 man...but we didn't have 3 legit TOR starters before....and we may have "four" in 2022....if not five including Gore.

Yikes...that's gonna be fun eh?

GO PADRES!

 

 

Great point & admission Mr. P.   Hadn't really thought about this specifically since the trade whirlwind, but you're absolutely right.  Have gone from a "no one" at top & overly reliant on young unproven arms with < 100 IP max to clear cut top 3.

Before the trades, the 2020 Pads SPs were the template of a 6-man rotation IMO.... lots of bodies to revolve up/down (however, the bullpen is NOT configured well for this), but not cemented in place yet .  Now, I agree with FENN: maybe if we have 12 or 18 games in a row stretch in Summer after an off day, Pads go with 6 man rolling 6th SP/8th RP up/down around the 6th SP starts...  Worth mentioning none of Darvish, Snell, or Lamet really fit the 200 IP every 5th day without fail mode of Lance Lynn or the true "elite" #1's like a Gerritt Cole.

Pads should be able to pick their spots like this for 6 man to break in some young SP's, but can't go all season long with a 6 man & hope to overtake the LAD... need best SP to make the most starts & that formerly "narrow" gap is now wide.