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#671 · January 3, 2021, 10:09 am
Every indication is that the Padres will NOT deploy either Kim or Cronenworth as an OF option ... at last not in 2021. I agree since BOTH still have to develop at their primary positions (INF) and pulling a Myers gambit this soon might hurt more than help the team.
That is really OK since Kim can play 2B/SS/3B and Cronenworth can play 2B/SS/3B/1B .... so that effectively covers the "1st in INF" sub. Minimizes the need for another middle INF sub putting Mateo even more at risk to a more offensive option (why I brought up Tanielu). With Tatis, Kim, Cronenworth all being SS ... that is 3 deep and needing a 4th on the depth chart is really excess. Plus Machado could still go to SS in a crisis.
OF is the more challenging given the current roster ... if all goes well Pham-Grisham-Myers each play > 150 games and based on their history they all could .... just that just rarely happens. Grady can play all three slots (LHH) and should be better defensively than Pham. So he may be sitting as the "1st in OF" sub ... although with just 53 ML PA at age 28 ... not sure what they get over a longer ML stretch. Again as an OF Mateo can't hit and really neither can Allen .
Given the players in hand ... a 3 slot OF (RHH) is the best target ... since INF is reasonably covered and may have to live with O'Grady to start as the LHH option. Would be more comfortable if that OF add moved ahead of O'Grady on the depth chart.
Can't see making the add for the open slot ... plus replacing Mateo ... AND unseating O'Grady without probably paying more than they want ... so O'Grady is pretty safe.
#672 · January 3, 2021, 10:21 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on January 3, 2021, 9:45 amI could see Padres landing a guy not on anyone's radar for remaining bench spot/s in/end of ST via a trade of RP...
Maybe a team lighter in RP but with more upper level OF prospects/depth. No idea who.
Yep if they can get a decent piece paid at league minimum ... would be ideal. Also, might see those RP being used to fill some AAA slots as potential call-ups ... insurance over a long season.
Keep thinking that PHIL could be a good partner for "excess" RP ... they had the worst pen in MLB last season (by a lot) ... have money ... have motivation to be competitive ... and Dombrowski is always willing to deal prospects for ML talent. Problem is that I can't see any PHIL player (that could be available) fitting an immediate Padre need. (could see maybe getting AAA Mickey Moniak (LHH former 1.1 draft pick) whose stock with PHIL is a bit at a low point). More than one excess RP but Padres have enough pieces to get a deal.
#673 · January 3, 2021, 12:44 pm
Somewhat lost in the justifiable focus on the adds of Snell and Darvish ... is the upgrade in the #2 catcher role from Mejia to Caratini.
Caratini ... switch-hitter ... 27 .... 3 years control
Mejia ... switch-hitter ... 25 ... 4 years control
Both arrived in the ML in 2017 ... ML career performance:
Caratini ... 677 PA ... 88 wRC+ .... 3.2 dWAR .... 1.3 WAR
Mejia ....... 362 PA ... 75 wRC+ ... -0.1 dWAR ... -0.1 WAR
Beyond just being Darvish's personal catcher ... Caratini is billed as an elite pitch framer that will help others on the staff be better. So, Caratini has more ML experience ... better offense ... better defense. This is good.
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#674 · January 3, 2021, 2:38 pm
Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2021, 10:09 amThat is really OK since Kim can play 2B/SS/3B and Cronenworth can play 2B/SS/3B/1B .... so that effectively covers the "1st in INF" sub. Minimizes the need for another middle INF sub putting Mateo even more at risk to a more offensive option (why I brought up Tanielu). With Tatis, Kim, Cronenworth all being SS ... that is 3 deep and needing a 4th on the depth chart is really excess. Plus Machado could still go to SS in a crisis.
Dont forget Nola can play SS as well. In fact rather well. I remember seeing an article from ?? stating that Mattingly had him switch off of SS because they had an all star at that position. So with Machado, we are 5 deep at SS.
So you are right, really no need for another INF upgrade at this time.
A RHH OF/1B and maybe an upgrade to back up CF, is really the last bench addition I think we need at this time.
#675 · January 4, 2021, 9:20 am
Well, everything is fluid. A month or so ago the owners and much of the media were suggesting the season would be (should be) delayed until more vaccinations were out in the public and some fans could be in the stands.
Over the weekend the drift was that ST and the season would go on as scheduled. That is about 6 weeks to ST. (Wouldn't be surprised if that idea changes again).
From a practical standpoint for GM and agents ... that should put some more pressure to get movement on FA since neither side probably wants to get deep into ST without knowing who is where ... and a LOT of FA are still out there.
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Along the same lines, if the full 162 game season is expected ... and after the limited ML and non-existent minor league seasons ... the composition (and strategic use) of the SP has to be at the forefront. Surely a need for maybe 8 arms to start over the course of the season. It will be interesting in innings management as teams debate 5 man rotations pulled early with a deep pen or a 6 man rotation with SP going a bit longer and a thinner pen or a planned rotation in and out of the minors with SP getting "rested" during the minor league stint.
#676 · January 4, 2021, 4:13 pm
From this FG article ... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/re-projecting-the-2021-san-diego-padres/ ... (which I used to start off the 2021 Season thread) ... here's my favorite statement ...
With a projected 103 ERA+, Joey Lucchesi would be a number-three starter on an average team, but he may be as low as the Padres’ seventh starter in 2021. The Dodgers have made dizzying starter depth one of the team’s strengths during the Andrew Friedman era, but the Padres are one of the few teams to make a real run at going toe-to-toe with them.
... followed by this ...
ZiPS Projection – 2021 NL West
| Team | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 98 | 64 | — | .605 | 51.4% | 43.6% | 95.0% | 12.5% |
| San Diego Padres | 98 | 64 | — | .605 | 48.4% | 46.1% | 94.5% | 12.0% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 77 | 85 | 21 | .475 | 0.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 0.2% |
| San Francisco Giants | 72 | 90 | 26 | .444 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 64 | 98 | 34 | .395 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
196 wins are the most ZiPS has ever projected for the top two teams in a division.
#677 · January 4, 2021, 6:19 pm
The comments about the Dodgers needing to make a move to keep up with the Padres are probably accurate and a reason why you have heard them go after more elite RP over the last week. They dont have a ton of money to spend due to the luxury tax. They also havent resigned Justin Turner and that is still up in the air.
As of now the Dodgers go into the season with two unproven rookies in the infield (Lux and Rios), an injury prone SS, and a catcher who exploded last year... can he keep it up? Really outside of Betts and Bellinger (and Seager when healthy) not sure there is anyone on the offensive side that you are positive will have an OPS > .800. I mean you can say the same thing about a Padres offense that has two super stars in Tatis and Machado and no guarantees anywhere else.
I think the offense is where the Dodgers have ? Their rotation is going to be awful to go up against, and they have enough in the back end of the pen to be very good no matter what the offense does.
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#678 · January 5, 2021, 6:47 am
If the price was right for SD, do you think that CJ Cron would be a good addition to the bench? He is a R/R 1B/DH. If SD finally realizes that Hosmer should sit v. most LHSP, is Cron a piece that could help?
#679 · January 5, 2021, 6:55 am
Quote from LynchMob on January 4, 2021, 4:13 pmFrom this FG article ... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/re-projecting-the-2021-san-diego-padres/ ... (which I used to start off the 2021 Season thread) ... here's my favorite statement ...
With a projected 103 ERA+, Joey Lucchesi would be a number-three starter on an average team, but he may be as low as the Padres’ seventh starter in 2021. The Dodgers have made dizzying starter depth one of the team’s strengths during the Andrew Friedman era, but the Padres are one of the few teams to make a real run at going toe-to-toe with them.
... followed by this ...
ZiPS Projection – 2021 NL West
Team W L GB Pct Div% WC% Playoff% WS Win% Los Angeles Dodgers 98 64 — .605 51.4% 43.6% 95.0% 12.5% San Diego Padres 98 64 — .605 48.4% 46.1% 94.5% 12.0% Arizona Diamondbacks 77 85 21 .475 0.1% 4.2% 4.4% 0.2% San Francisco Giants 72 90 26 .444 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% Colorado Rockies 64 98 34 .395 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 196 wins are the most ZiPS has ever projected for the top two teams in a division.
Interesting view of Lucchesi. #3 starter on an average team goes with my belief he has trade value (not great mind you ... but value). I look more toward a good team seeing Lucchesi as a #4-#5 if the back end of their starting rotation is flat out bad ... and some teams may see their SP in that light. Add that he has 4 years control and is at league minimum.
However, his value to the Padres may be more than what he could yield in a trade. After 2020 with minimal innings from SP ... Lucchesi may provide a valuable filler role as an innings provider. Can’t see the Padres dealing him now ... need to see the rest of the SP options in ST before considering a trade.
#680 · January 5, 2021, 7:12 am
Quote from BoosterSD on January 5, 2021, 6:47 amIf the price was right for SD, do you think that CJ Cron would be a good addition to the bench? He is a R/R 1B/DH. If SD finally realizes that Hosmer should sit v. most LHSP, is Cron a piece that could help?
Don’t think he fits the Padres’ strategy even if there is a DH. (That goes for any DH/1B types).
Padres (and other teams) seem to be gravitating to using the DH as a rotational spot for regulars to give them a break from the field while keeping their bats in the line-up.
So, a preferred strategy is a finding an option that has more versatility in the field. As it stands ... Kim/Cronenworth provides that depth for the INF but they need a RHH OF. IF the choose to sit Hosmer against some LHP ... Nola/Caratini can do it or (not my favorite) Myers drops in if the add a RHH OF only type.
Should note that rotational strategy might be more needed in 2021 as they return to a 162 games slate after 2020 ... and the Padres being contenders ... don’t want to have anyone in the line-up for wear down in August / September in the final push. Every opportunity for “rest” helps.