Quote from BoosterSD on January 2, 2021, 4:45 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 2, 2021, 3:33 pm

I’m good with Santana....I’m a fan.

But I’m thinking we will sign an elite OF defender as our 4th/5th outfielder or at least a good defender.

 

Then replace Mateo with Santana, and then sign Almora as the primary back up CFer.

Quote from fenn68 on January 2, 2021, 7:21 pm

Santana had UCL surgery on right elbow in September .... out 6-8 months ... big reason why Texas non-tendered him and his projected $3.6MM arb (last before FA).

Quote from BoosterSD on January 2, 2021, 7:50 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 2, 2021, 7:21 pm

Santana had UCL surgery on right elbow in September .... out 6-8 months ... big reason why Texas non-tendered him and his projected $3.6MM arb (last before FA).

MLBTR did not note the injury.

Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2021, 7:55 am

Looking at 2019-20 stats for position players, Padres are in good shape vs. RHP and LHP except for Hosmer and Cronenworth vs. LHP ... both are 40-50% below average. Kim (hopefully) can cover one of the two slots as needed as a RHH (most likely 2B). That major hole may focus Preller on a strong hitter vs. LHP as the next bench addition ... who can play 1B or RF (allowing Myers to 1B) ... unless given the other seven they just prefer to live with the hole.

Alternatively, Nola or Caratini could cover 1B. Caratini has hit LHP well and Nola (although poor in 2020) was good against LHP in 2019 ... much better than Hosmer. If that is the strategy does open options for that last bench piece but still a RHH is needed if just for PH.

One open slot ... it will be filled with someone. Plus, IF the Padres stumble over two potential quality adds, would not object to Mateo getting DFA. He can't hit, is nothing special defensively ...he only offers speed.

Watch for minor league FA signing Tanielu (1B/3B/2B) ... 28 year old 6 year minor league FA out of the Houston organization. Not going to be a regular but reports are he is a good line drive contact hitter (not much power) and not much defense. RHH PH and more useful than Mateo if they need someone at 3B/1B?

Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2021, 8:02 am

Unless a significant bargain falls into Preller's lap ... with all the potential players unemployed heading into ST ... we may see those bench slots left open until then ... and Preller moves then at a real bargain price (maybe not the "best" option as a player but price counts and we are debating a bench player). Not critical UNLESS the DH arrives ... another reason to drag his feet on making any commitment.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 3, 2021, 8:22 am

Did the flurry of Padre moves give the Dodgers more reason to make additions?

I realize they are gonna do what they are gonna do....and that AJ had to strike while it made sense for us,but it feels like we did a lot in a short time and the Dodgers are bound to counter.

From what I understand even one big addition would put them over the luxury tax threshold.

Doubt they care.....but how far will they go?

I see they are interested in LeMahieu....do they do even more?

Would they really c0nsider signing Bauer?

They have a pretty full,and good,rotation already.

How much $$ to you guys think they are willing to add?

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 3, 2021, 9:36 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 3, 2021, 8:22 am

Did the flurry of Padre moves give the Dodgers more reason to make additions?

I realize they are gonna do what they are gonna do....and that AJ had to strike while it made sense for us,but it feels like we did a lot in a short time and the Dodgers are bound to counter.

From what I understand even one big addition would put them over the luxury tax threshold.

Doubt they care.....but how far will they go?

I see they are interested in LeMahieu....do they do even more?

Would they really c0nsider signing Bauer?

They have a pretty full,and good,rotation already.

How much $$ to you guys think they are willing to add?

 

Probably a lot less that you think .... two issues: luxury tax and potential 2022 big dollar signings to re-sign (replace) Seager and a couple of others.

First the luxury tax. They exceeded the luxury tax in both 2019 and 2020 so if they exceed in 2021 there is a 50% tax level and if over $20MM an additional $12.5% penalty. They are around $197MM now for luxury tax purposes .... only $13MM under the threshold. Remember it is AAV so backloading has no effect. 50% on everything over $13MM is a lot (especially if you are talking LaMahieu or Bauer money).

Plus, staying under in 2021 would reset the luxury tax calculator (unless the new CBA changes everything) and it would be easier (cheaper) to sign FA next winter ... like at least one of the elite SS.

====

Most still see the LAD as the best team in baseball ... doubt they have enough concern about the Padres (even after the moves) to warrant altering their longer term plan. If the predictions are close ... it will all boil down to a 7 game series in October.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 3, 2021, 9:41 am

Have to look at situationally specific needs & current alternatives (Red: need upgrade)

• Backup CF, preferably RH:   Mateo, O'Grady (L), Allen (S) (if clears waivers)
• Better Defensive LF than Pham, preferably LH:  O'Grady (L), Mateo, Allen (S)... Cronenworth (L)?
• RH 1B vs LHP:  Nola, Caratini (S) ?   (NOT "Myers" unless a RH OF better than "Hosmer" is added)
• 1B Everyday backup if IL:  Cronenworth (L), O'Grady (L)
• PH/DH vs LHP:  Tanielu (Non Roster)
• PH/DH vs RHP:  O'Grady (L)

Kim solves 2B vs LHP; I really think he's going to be the everyday 2B.  He exhibits power Jake doesn't have.  EVENTUALLY might introduce him to OF, but don't think I'd start there as a serious option.  He's already going to have a steep adaptation & learning curve jumping to MLB without also changing positions.  It makes more sense to try Jake & his already super utility profile at corner OF; has the arm & is LH.  If he could just not be awful defensively (seems unlikely), could push O'Grady in that role to depth option (AAA), effectively opening a roster spot.  But O'Grady is an ideal roster fit as a LH corner OF/1B & PH.

Addition of Kim shrinks Mateo's role to OF only; he's never going to play 2B unless someone's hurt.  Increasingly wrong "fit" (through no fault of his) on a World Series contender.  Might be placeholder that winds up getting flipped for a younger off roster prospect.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 3, 2021, 9:45 am

I could see Padres landing a guy not on anyone's radar for remaining bench spot/s in/end of ST via a trade of RP...

Maybe a team lighter in RP but with more upper level OF prospects/depth.  No idea who.