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#631 · December 31, 2020, 10:56 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 31, 2020, 10:08 amGuys about to hit FA have so little motivation to extend for a year. An injury in that year could cost them 8 figures $$. There's always the Qualifying Offer, but even if a phenomenal year, that's steep for Pham. Would be more appealing for Clevinger in 2023, to have 2 years of a "big 4" rotation: of Darvish, Snell, Lamet, Clevinger. But if Clevinger has a good 2022, he will likely do much better $ wise as a FA despite 2 TJ surgeries.
Hard to get “younger” players to extend for a year if in their last year of control. They are too close to getting (they believe) that long term / big dollar offer ... and some just want to test FA.
Agree that getting a FA year out of Clevinger is not likely ... would need multi-year big money given his age and elite quality as a SP ... high demand.
Where Pham becomes a potential extension candidate is he is “older” in a era where “older” really does not get valued on a multi-year deal unless elite ... which Pham is not. Plus Pham has his eye issue which is a disincentive to a multi-year deal and as a poor OF is a future DH (not the most demand).
Not sure where his reality is ... but if he is expecting a 3 year deal for an AAV > $10MM when he hits FA ... good luck. I would be surprised if gets more than a 1 year deal next winter.
#632 · December 31, 2020, 11:19 am
I dont see the Padres extending Pham at least not before midseason at the earliest. Pham is coming off his worst season as a professional, and yes we found out he was dealing with an injury all year (that he has since had surgery for and says he will be 100% to go for OD),, not to mention the eye issue. Neither of which inspire the Padres to sign him for longer than 2021.
His one kinda sticking point was the playoffs where he was arguably our best hitter (didnt he have five hits in a game).
Part of the idea of extending anyone, and or signing other FA is now San Diego is THE place to be if you wan to win a ring. It was brought up on an interview on Darren Smith yesterday that players want to be in SD anyway for the weather (and the food), but now add in the idea that theyare built for a WS contending team and you could see players willing to take smaller deals to even be a #5 starter or bench piece because it might mean a ring. If youre Profar and given $8 mil/yr to play for Texas/Seattle or $5 mil to play for SD which would you choose? If the Padres win a World Series in the next two years you could see Clevinger or Myers willing to take less money to resign with the Padres to win another one.
#633 · December 31, 2020, 11:29 am
According to MLB TradeRumors we are in negotiations with Yates and still talking to Profar!
I would be super excited if we were able to add Profar to our depth.
You gotta believe if we are seriously still trying to sign Profar that AJ is expecting the DH to be back.
#634 · December 31, 2020, 11:29 am
On Kim, I was listening to the BA Podcast yesterday and they noted that there is usually a transition period for KBO players moving over. KBO is similar to a Double-A/Triple-A league, HOWEVER, most pitchers in the KBO top out at 90, and they might have one flamethrower on each team throwing 95. If you look at our current 40 man, how many pitchers dont throw 95? That change in velo is a huge thing for a player like Kim to overcome. That doesnt mean they cant do it, but Kyle Glaser mentioned that Padres fans shouldnt pencil him in as our starting 2B just yet. He could tear up ST and be starting, but if he struggles and starts the year in Triple-A it shouldnt be seen as a bad deal. In fact one of the biggest reasons for signing with the Padres is they were he only one (or only one around the same $) that didnt have minor league stipulations in it. I am not 100% sure what that means but it sounded like other teams offered him more $ but there was a stipulations that he would start in the minors.
BA said they would have him ranked around #50 in their top 100 prospects (almost makes up for trading Patino who I believe was 28). If he does start the year in San Diego, him putting up similar numbers to Kang (.287/.355/461) wouldnt be shocking. Remember Kang was also 3 years older, and looked like a steal for the Pirates until all his off the field issues.
So i took that as for the time being, Cron is our starting 2B until Kim beats him out for the job (maybe in May?)
#635 · December 31, 2020, 12:23 pm
I saw the MLBTradeRumors piece on the Padres being still interested in Yates and Profar ... deal not “close” ... but interested at the $5MM level for each (Yates incentive based). Boy, that would signal they really think they can dethrone the LAD.
Yates I expected ... more pen help is always a target. Did not expect the sustained interest in Profar after the commitment to Kim. The logic is right with Profar as the 4th OF being way better for 2021 than Allen or O’Grady based on their pasts. Switch-hitter good enough to PH and in a pinch do the INF. O’Grady has an option so he could just be optioned (maybe a RP out of options DFA) to make room.
Most recent comments are that no plan to work (other than a look/see in ST) either Kim or Cronenworth in the OF. Agree that Cronenworth is likely the starter in April with Kim showing up potentially at all INF slots and PH until settled.
IF the DH arrives a combo of Kim / Profar should be decent to cover all the field slots while the “regular” gets a break at DH. Plus solid depth for injury coverage.
I guess Siedler is really loving his role as the lead owner and being open with the purse strings. Sign both Yates and Profar .... will be in the mid-$160s cash.
#636 · December 31, 2020, 12:33 pm
I wonder how the potential for a work stoppage in 2022 will impact the FA thinking going into next winter.
Under the assumption revenues will be impacted as in 2020 with no attendance (even if not paying salaries) ... owner losses / shortened season. Would an owner make a FA commitment before knowing the outcome of the CBA negotiations? If the season is shortened, might some teams just punt on any major FA and focus on the following winter and 2023?
Don’t think that is an issue for the mega stars (Lindor, Story, et al) getting major long term deals but may be an issue for the vast majority of “marginal” FA ticketed for more 1-2 year type deals. Owners lose money ... marginal players lose money because there should be a lot of veterans scrabbling for jobs that may be just given to cheaper prospects ... at least may most clubs.
If anything the norm for this winter and next is not “normal”.
#637 · December 31, 2020, 12:50 pm
I can see Yates but not Profar unless Profar is willing to leave a lot of money and a starting position on the table. Given his injury history and inconsistent production, this is probably Profar's best chance to get that earnings stream he's been dreaming about so despite the chemistry between him and the Padres' players, chemistry only goes so far.
I'm thinking that there are a lot of OF's and RP's available as either FA or via trade. For example, what would it take to land a solid RP like Rich Rodriguez from the Pirates? We could do a 2 or 3 for one - say Guerra, Bednar and Williams - and that might be enough to get him as a nice piece to add to our bullpen (and he has options!). At 31, Pirates are going nowhere in the next 3 years so why not trade him for something of possible future value - I might even let Baez or Lucchesi go for Rodriguez. Let the market come to us.
Don't see much of a future for Mateo or Allen with this team. We have to take someone off the 40-man to accommodate Kim but it will probably be a RP vice either of those guys. If we sign Yates, we need to make it 2. Maybe some minor deals in the works to get some value back in the minors to open up spots on the 40-man. Preller will make it interesting - maybe just more money for international signings.
#638 · December 31, 2020, 2:03 pm
The chances of Profar getting a multi-year deal or any type of guarantee to be a starter is minimal from any team. MLBTR had him 1 year at $7MM ... good chance less in my mind given most view him in the super-utility role ... not a good 2B defensively and maybe too light hitting for a LF.
If he does great for him ... but there is a point where he has to make a call if his agent is just not getting any legit quality offers. Probably sometime before ST he has to read the tea leaves. IF the Padres want him in the utility role at about $5MM ... that may be the best offer on the table ... as long as it remains on the table.
Being on the Padres bench for $5MM is better than unemployment or on some other team’s bench for less.
#639 · December 31, 2020, 2:45 pm
If we really still have money left for Profar, I would rather see it go to Kike Hernandez. He's a much better, more versatile defender and a better hitter against lefties. I think he's a perfect fit for our bench right now. He would probably come cheaper than Profar too.
I just really don't get the love for Profar. He spent most of the season struggling to hit .200 and then got unbelievably hot late. 2018 is the only other time he's been good
#640 · December 31, 2020, 2:58 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 31, 2020, 2:45 pmIf we really still have money left for Profar, I would rather see it go to Kike Hernandez. He's a much better, more versatile defender and a better hitter against lefties. I think he's a perfect fit for our bench right now. He would probably come cheaper than Profar too.
I just really don't get the love for Profar. He spent most of the season struggling to hit .200 and then got unbelievably hot late. 2018 is the only other time he's been good
Not to say Preller is not interested in Hernandez but apparently a number of other teams such as the NYY, BOST, and MINN are “interested” and his price tag is on the rise ... some would suggest 2 years / $12MM. So, likely will get a deal much more rich that Profar.