Forum
Forum Navigation
Off Season Thread
#641 · December 31, 2020, 3:55 pm
I read a report a year ago and was trying to find it about the untapped marked of merchandise overseas. Essentially, if you go to Sports Authority, Target, Wallmart etc.. and buy a jersey (legit or knock off) in the US, every team in baseball gets a cut of the profit (usually about 10-12% of the sale). If you buy it through the Padres team store (in person or online), the Padres keep that 10%. In a normal year, a team might bring in an extra $5-10 mil this way.
However that contract only works with stores in the U.S., if you buy overseas (real or fake, cough DHGate) the team keeps all the revenue (although I believe its closer to 5%).
So if you are the Padres, how many Kim and Darvish jerseys will be sold over the next 12 months, not to mention baseball caps, alt jerseys and other memorabilia? With Kim and Darvish being arguably the two biggest names currently in the MLB (along with Ohtani) could you see the Padre team store selling an extra 100,000 jerseys? At $300 each thats an extra $3 mil the club would get just for those two players. Then if they are watching Padre games, maybe it causes them to buy a Machado or Tatis jersey (Tatis was the 4th highest selling jersey last year, Machado was 12th). I'm not saying it will recoup the cost of the players, but wouldnt be surprised if the Padres make an extra $5-6 mil from Asia next year alone.
Thats not even getting into sales from fans in the states, or the idea that we can become the #1 team in an entire continent (in American baseball) if we can win a WS with them. I believe only Uehara (Boston) and Tad Iguchi (White Sox) have won a world series. I dont think Matsui, Tanaka, or Nomo ever did.
#642 · December 31, 2020, 3:57 pm
Man, Yates AND Profar would PERFECTLY complete the 2021 roster... the more you spend to build a contender, the easier it is to justify spending just "a little" more to get over the top 🙂
Since we would need 2 spots anyway, I'll beat the Stammen + Joey or Baez trade "dead horse" to create them & offset some $.
Pads theoretically could add Yates & Profar for 6-8 MM "Net" guaranteed.
Pen of 6 locks: Yates, Pom (L), Pagan, A. Adams, Strahm (L), P. Johnson
Option down: Castillo (L) - knock rust off, Bednar
Compete for last 2 spots + Injury depth: Hill (L), Altavilla, T. Williams, Guerra. Low but arb $ & no option Altavilla likely, others would really have to outperform Hill (& Castillo).
Guerra and (to a lesser extent) Mateo are looking less & less like "good fits" on a World Series contending roster as developmental guys.
Bench 3 locks: Caratini, Kim/Jake, Profar
Compete for last 2 spots: Mateo, Allen, O'Grady. Mateo & Allen maybe a leg up with no options.
Option down: Ona, Campusano
Recall if need: DH/LF - Ona, CF/RF - O'Grady
#643 · December 31, 2020, 4:24 pm
The only way I see Profar back is if the DH is for sure back.
Greg Allen was DFA
#644 · December 31, 2020, 5:32 pm
Not that I thought Allen was a key player to keep around ... just surprised he is the first to be DFA.
I guess that suggests another position player add at some point. Caratini (C), Kim (INF), O’Grady (OF), Mateo (INF/OF) plus ???? .... for the 5 bench slots seems really weak to cover a full season ... especially if the DH does get approved in ST.
Only other roster options: Ona (OF, no defense and has not had a full season in AA, big K% in his brief ML work); Marcano (INF who has yet to play above low A); Campusano (C who has yet to play above A+ ... if available at all). Even Mateo and O’Grady are questionable with very limited ML experience. In 2021 would have put Allen ahead of them given the ML experience with good defense, speed. Padres plan to be contenders? Not with that bench after Kim / Caratini.
Preller may have a target lined up ... either directly to the ML roster or a AAA signing of a veteran with a make good contract.
#645 · December 31, 2020, 5:37 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2020, 2:58 pmQuote from Jeremy Hill on December 31, 2020, 2:45 pmIf we really still have money left for Profar, I would rather see it go to Kike Hernandez. He's a much better, more versatile defender and a better hitter against lefties. I think he's a perfect fit for our bench right now. He would probably come cheaper than Profar too.
I just really don't get the love for Profar. He spent most of the season struggling to hit .200 and then got unbelievably hot late. 2018 is the only other time he's been good
Not to say Preller is not interested in Hernandez but apparently a number of other teams such as the NYY, BOST, and MINN are “interested” and his price tag is on the rise ... some would suggest 2 years / $12MM. So, likely will get a deal much more rich that Profar.
Most reports I've seen have Profar in the 5-7 range and last I saw Kike was looking for a 1 year deal. I think their deals will end up being pretty comparable. It's more about not wanting to spend on Profar though. I brought Kike up because I think he fits our current needs perfectly, but there are a number of guys I would prefer to Profar for the bench.
#646 · December 31, 2020, 7:49 pm
Kike was supposed to make 5.9 M last year while Profar was going to get 5.7 M. I think both helped their cases for their FA opportunity in 2020. Kike is one year older than Profar and has a better track record statistically with. Profar is not a very good infielder but proved to be a decent OF; Kike is pretty strong all around. Because of this, I think they are looking for something in the 7-7.5 M range but may have to settle for less than that (although Kim got 7M with no major league experience).
I would think Kike agrees to a 1 year only if he can't get the money he feels he deserves - Boston is said to be in the lead for him. Even at 30, he should have takers in FA after 2021. Not so sure about Profar - more to prove. Profar will probably take a multi-year contract although it might have a club option in years 2 and/or 3. If we are going to use Profar primarily as an OF, then I don't see paying Profar that much money as the primary sub for Pham. Pillar only got 4.25 M last year - I'd much prefer him to Profar if we're looking at OF coverage and further depth on the bench. Lots of OF's out there via trade of FA - not to worry!
#647 · January 1, 2021, 8:47 am
Interesting tidbit on Hernandez's contract demand per Gammons ... 1 year BUT with the assurance (as best any team can do that) of at least 500 PA. Never achieved that with the LAD as a super utility guy.
Maybe that is way all the rumors center around AL teams with the DH ... his versatility would have him popping up everywhere as regulars get DH days. Hence, Toronto, NYY, Bost, and Minn seem to be leading the pack in pursuit. Puts all the NL teams at a big disadvantage.
#648 · January 1, 2021, 9:10 am
If Allen clears waivers (should) ... is he still in a position to be assigned to the minors or does he have enough time (ML or MiL) to opt for FA? Padres could use him in AAA for CF (and as ML insurance mid-season if a major injury to Grisham). He may not be compelling but he does have ML experience on a contender in Cleveland with defense / speed.
As it stands, the potential 4th OF add probably needs to have CF capability. If Grisham gets hurt .... Mateo can't hit / O'Grady has only about 50 ML AB at age 28 ... neither should be a starter on a contending team ... and really not sure about either's defense in CF. No MiL prospect in the queue. Doubt we want to see either Pham or Myers in CF.
Not sure the money to plop down on that 4th OF but don't think Almora or DeShields should command much ... less than Pillar ... and depends on the view of either Hernandez or Profar as a CF as opposed to super utility but less than them. Over the past 4 years DeShields would give the better defense and Almora the better offense ... but both plus defense and below average offense. Either are better than Allen. Pillar is (was) the better CF but over the past 4 years ... about the same as a hitter ... his issue may just be money.
#649 · January 1, 2021, 9:24 am
If he clears waivers the Padres can assign him to Triple-A or release him. Usually the GM talks to the player/agent about what the player wants. "Hey, we are having to remove you from the 40 man, but we still really like you, Would you be willing to take a minor leagues spot with an invite or would you rather be released?"
Finding someone like Allen shouldnt be difficult. There are a ton of light hitting defensive CF who can be had for league minimum (is Jankowski still on a MLB team?)
#650 · January 1, 2021, 10:12 am
Quote from Ben Davey on January 1, 2021, 9:24 amIf he clears waivers the Padres can assign him to Triple-A or release him. Usually the GM talks to the player/agent about what the player wants. "Hey, we are having to remove you from the 40 man, but we still really like you, Would you be willing to take a minor leagues spot with an invite or would you rather be released?"
Finding someone like Allen shouldnt be difficult. There are a ton of light hitting defensive CF who can be had for league minimum (is Jankowski still on a MLB team?)
I am hoping for someone better than Allen at a low cost on the ML roster ... and maybe even on the AAA roster.
Timing was my question ... basically a delete of Allen before a viable replacement in hand when could have DFA off the excess of RP when some will have to be DFA anyway.
Possible they “knew” Allen would clear waivers and accept a AAA assignment but believed any of the RP options would get claimed and still wanted time to sort through them to keep the best (healthy) option? Or saw them as having some trade value?