Quote from MrPadre19 on December 31, 2020, 9:36 am

Part of the issue with Pham is that he’s an older player to be hitting free agency for the first time.

He has to be chomping at the bit to cash in.

Not so sure he would sign a team friendly deal.

On the team side they probably want to see him make it thru a full season first.....If he does well it would cost more....if he doesn’t you let him go elsewhere.

I’m really hoping we get the “real” Pham this year.....another guy getting on base higher than .350 would be amazing in this lineup!

Quote from WindsorUK on December 31, 2020, 9:54 am

I wasn't so sure Pham was going to be here for 2021, let alone thinking about an injured, visually impaired, poor defending, 34 year old being signed on for another tour!

Preller has brought in, what, a dozen players in the past 12 months, and sent out twice that many? I'm sure someone, not even remotely on our radar, will be added at some point and man LF come 2022.

Quote from WindsorUK on December 31, 2020, 9:58 am

Of ALL the guys sent out, who is most likely to be waived/cut by his current team and end up back in the Padres system?

Renfroe?

Potts?

Rosario?

Cordero? Wouldn't it be GREAT to have Franchy right now( and Bolanos!), as opposed to Tim Hil?

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2020, 10:04 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 31, 2020, 9:36 am

Part of the issue with Pham is that he’s an older player to be hitting free agency for the first time.

He has to be chomping at the bit to cash in.

Not so sure he would sign a team friendly deal.

On the team side they probably want to see him make it thru a full season first.....If he does well it would cost more....if he doesn’t you let him go elsewhere.

I’m really hoping we get the “real” Pham this year.....another guy getting on base higher than .350 would be amazing in this lineup!

Think the biggest issue is Pham wanting to cash in ... clearly wants to maximize the pay for how he perceives his worth. No idea how he perceives “risk” on his side given age and issues with the eyes.

Actually a “team friendly” deal is not in play even if considering a buyout of a FA year. More of both sides evaluating risk and price which may look to be a better deal for the team IF everything goes right or a better deal for Pham if everything goes wrong.

IF Pham is at $8MM this year ... age 33ish ... what are his chances of getting a compelling FA offer next winter even with playing to career stats? Longer than a one year deal? At a fair price tag, the guaranteed money maybe worth the reduced risk.

For the Padres, will need a ML contender quality LF/DH ... going to cost to fill both those slots for 2022. Plus the Padres really seem to like Pham. Gaining certainty on the price for one of those slot with Pham will make it easier to size what they need for the other spot.

Still just negotiation but COULD make sense for both sides as risk mitigation. No idea what that match price point would be.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 31, 2020, 10:08 am

Guys about to hit FA have so little motivation to extend for a year.  An injury in that year could cost them 8 figures $$.  There's always the Qualifying Offer, but even if a phenomenal year, that's steep for Pham.  Would be more appealing for Clevinger in 2023, to have 2 years of a "big 4" rotation: of Darvish, Snell, Lamet, Clevinger.  But if Clevinger has a good 2022, he will likely do much better $ wise as a FA despite 2 TJ surgeries.

 

Quote from WindsorUK on December 31, 2020, 10:16 am

Wasn't Pagan a closer in Tampa? And how about Pomeranz in SF?

And haven't Bednar and Wingenter been closing in our system?

If neither Yates nor Rosenthal is cost effective, would we be alright with one of the aforementioned getting a shot to start the year as our 9th inning guy?

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2020, 10:20 am

Extending out the Pham idea of signing an extension as part of the arbitration negotiations ... and having some payroll certainty is good when trying to make changes in the future ... should the Padres consider a similar strategy with the other arbitration players (all with 3 control years so not critical)?

1. Lamet is projected to get $3.5MM in arb ... clearly an injury risk but that did not deter the deal for Clevinger (plus 2 year deal after injury) or before the 2 year deal to get Richards .... Lamet if healthy (and effective as in 2020) could become a very expensive arbitration player in 2023. A 3 year buyout with a club option for his first FA year?

2. Pagan is projected to get 1.550MM in arb ... best RHRP option right now but RP are highly volatile ... probably play that years by year.

3. Caratini is projected to get 1.400MM in arb ... with Nola around and Campusano in the wings probably not a need ... doesn’t really have a high side projection ... go year to year.

4.  Altavilla is projected to get 0,800 ... not even sure he makes the roster so clearly no.

So, how would you approach locking down (and extending Lamet)?

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2020, 10:42 am

Quote from WindsorUK on December 31, 2020, 10:16 am

Wasn't Pagan a closer in Tampa? And how about Pomeranz in SF?

And haven't Bednar and Wingenter been closing in our system?

If neither Yates nor Rosenthal is cost effective, would we be alright with one of the aforementioned getting a shot to start the year as our 9th inning guy?

Agree that Rosenthal is likely priced out of the market given the recent Padre moves but Yates .. the longer the FA market drags ... might be still signed at a low base / incentive based deal.

We should see both Pomeranz and Pagan as 9th inning options ... maybe even if Yates is back in the fold. If the Padres are in every game (hopefully), Yates or any one will not pitch more than half ... so a need for multiple effective 9th inning arms plus the current philosophy is to use end of the game guys in high leverage situation that may occur in like the 7th inning.

Bottom line is that there is a need for multiple effective shut down guys. Padres, after Pagan and Pomeranz are really “hoping” on the unproven. Have some hope for Adams and Johnson based on the little I saw in 2020. The others have “stuff” but not sure that will translate into effectiveness.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 31, 2020, 10:44 am

Lamets situation could end up similar to Clevingers.

IF he ends up on the shelf(injured) we may extend him to keep him in the system at a reasonable cost helping both sides.

Let’s pray that doesn’t happen though!

I’m assuming the plan as of right now is to have Pom and Pagan to share the Closer duties.

But having them sharing the 8th inning is even more ideal moving everyone else down an inning.