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#581 · December 29, 2020, 7:18 am
Keeping the interest level up .... remember the international signing period starts on Jan 15th in 2021. Not like the old days of unlimited spending but Padres have probably have the key commitments already locked in.
Maybe they have a good feeling about their commitments which may have made the trade of the prospects in the Darvish easier to include.
#582 · December 29, 2020, 7:27 am
At least INITIALLY the Padres plan to keep Cronenworth at 2B and move Kim around the INF and test him in the OF. We will see how that goes over a full season.
Kim is good insurance if the NL DH appears in 2021 and, maybe, he is the LF in 2022 as they let Pham go via FA (to save his $8MMish).
The current roster will generate some upward pressure on the payroll in 2022 with contractural increased and probably some decent arbitration increases for Tatis, Lamet, Paddack.
Money is not unlimited (way more than I ever thought committed in 2021) and some "containment" should be expected in 2022. Maybe the next round of adds focus on league minimum types via trades ... probably with some of the pitching prospects in play next winter.
#583 · December 29, 2020, 7:42 am
Time to think outside the box!
How about Guerrà as RH Closer? Out of options, right? If we have a full ST, why not? Better yet, if he's playing winter ball, get him started today!
I'm not sure Paddack has the make up for a closer. I'd love to test the market for him NOW before he washes out( I hope I'm wrong but I don't think he's mentally tough enough. Maybe he'll mature?)
#584 · December 29, 2020, 8:21 am
Quote from WindsorUK on December 29, 2020, 7:42 amTime to think outside the box!
How about Guerrà as RH Closer? Out of options, right? If we have a full ST, why not? Better yet, if he's playing winter ball, get him started today!
I'm not sure Paddack has the make up for a closer. I'd love to test the market for him NOW before he washes out( I hope I'm wrong but I don't think he's mentally tough enough. Maybe he'll mature?)
I think Paddack is a lot like Wil Myers in that when they have to be "the guy," it puts too much pressure on them mentally and they choke. But, in Wil's case, even though he is being paid like "the guy," he is better when he bats 6th rather than third. In Paddock's case, I'm hoping that he will get back to form if he is the number 3 or 4 starter, rather than the opening day pitcher and "the guy." IMHO he definitely doesn't have the mentality of a closer.
#585 · December 29, 2020, 8:26 am
2022 is also the last year that Hos makes 20+ mil before he goes down 8 mil. So really after 2022 the Padres have Myers (20 mil), Hosmer (8 mil, 21 mil if he opts out), and Clevinger (12? mil he is arb eligible).
From everything I am seeing from Clevinger, he LOVES San Diego (he has posted multiple things of him riding around PB/OB on his skateboard, eating Mexican food, etc...). I would not be surprised if Preller goes to him in arb and says "we got you for two years and you get injured for the first one, make it up to us and give us an extra year." Anyone thinks he says no (if the $ is even close)
#586 · December 29, 2020, 8:48 am
One interesting note that someone mentioned is that the players Preller didnt trade (in an ideal world), take over for the expensive ones when they hit FA.
After this year: Pham leaves (save $8 mil), Abrams takes over
After next year: Myers/Clevinger leave. (Head/Hassell/Gore)
If you look at who the Padres traded over the last 6 months... its a lot of infielders and pitchers. I really liked Arias, Preciado, and a few other guys... but where are they going to play? If your entire infield is signed through the next 4 years WITH a super-utility guy that should have won ROY... where are they going to play? By the time they leave, you will have guys from the 2021 draft class ready to get called up.
Same with pitchers. Just last offseason we were talking about a log jam because of guys like Lauer, Luchessi, Strahm, Quantril, Allen, etc... and then the first series of 2019 we had Margavicious starting, and we were claiming Paddack as the ace. Now we have a log jam with four aces (Yu, Snell, Lamet, Clev), the best pitching prospect in baseball (Gore), two former top 50 prospects (Morejon, Baez), and Paddack and Luchessi are still around as "depth." I saw both Pedro Avila and Jacob Nix pitch and REALLY liked what they had (B/E aside for Nix), they could be legit #4 starters (in line with Paddack), and they are so far down the depth chart who knows if they ever put on a Padre uniform. Espinoza is throwing off a mound again and should be ready to go for ST, we have already counted him out. What happens if he goes to San Antonio and dominates? Point is, I thought Wilcox had the potential to be really good same with Patino but did we have a rotation spot waiting for them?
Fenn is right, the "J2" period at least this year is not July 2nd but in 2 weeks. Padres are already linked with a top 5 signing class. Not to mention the fact that Patino was arguably the best from the 2016 class and he signed for cheap. Linn wrote this in his article today discussing the loss of Preciado/Mena/Santana "The three players could immediately be replaced. in a sense. When the next international signing period opens on Jan. 15, the Padres are expected to introduce a strong class."
#587 · December 29, 2020, 8:52 am
Quote from Ben Davey on December 29, 2020, 8:26 am2022 is also the last year that Hos makes 20+ mil before he goes down 8 mil. So really after 2022 the Padres have Myers (20 mil), Hosmer (8 mil, 21 mil if he opts out), and Clevinger (12? mil he is arb eligible).
From everything I am seeing from Clevinger, he LOVES San Diego (he has posted multiple things of him riding around PB/OB on his skateboard, eating Mexican food, etc...). I would not be surprised if Preller goes to him in arb and says "we got you for two years and you get injured for the first one, make it up to us and give us an extra year." Anyone thinks he says no (if the $ is even close)
Clevinger signed a two year deal earlier this winter .... $3.5MM (2021) and $8.0MM (2022) ... then he is a FA in 2023.
So, money does open up in 2023 but expect some pretty large arbs by then for Tatis, Lamet, and Paddack plus Snell’s contract grows. Hope the Gore, Weathers, Morejon, et al are advanced enough to cover some SP slots to not require signing (keeping) a high pay option ... probably will need money to replace Myers / Hosmer / maybe LF / DH.
Siedler said he looks at a 5 year budget ... and 2021 has all the feel of pulling payroll forward as they push $160MM ... so 2023-24-25 may be a pull back while probably having to pay Tatis BIG on an extension.
Now Darvish, Snell, and Lamet all go FA in 2024 (Clevinger in 2023) ... that is a big hit to the SP. IF the Padres are making the World Series in 2021-22-23 might pay up to keep them but if they fall a bit short ... might they NOT wait to FA and deal one (or more) in 2022-23 and recoup some assets? If Gore, Weathers, Morejon et all become compelling in 2021-22 that might force their hand in an effort to control payroll and extend the contending window beyond 2023.
#588 · December 29, 2020, 10:02 am
Totally forgot about Clevinger signing the friendly deal already.
By the time Darvish hits FA he will be 37.
Lets say in the next 3 years the Padres make the playoffs all three years and win one WS (please God!) They might be inclined to resign one (either Clev or Snell) and let the others walk.
Another angle for 2-3 years down the road. If Kim and Darvish love San Diego, and the Padres market them like they should how many other Pacific Rim stars will want to sign in SD? Forget Sugano this year, what about the Darvish/Sugano/Tanaka in 2-3 years (as one star emerges every few years). Also dont forget the Padres have Aki and Nomo on the payroll for this exact purpose.
#589 · December 29, 2020, 10:37 am
So I just heard on MLB network that the Padres are one of six teams still interested in Sugano!
😳😳😳😳
