Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2020, 12:40 pm

Some 4th outfielder options off the top of my head:

Steven Souza(man he fell hard after a great 2017)

Delino Deshields and Nomar Mazara(both Preller guys from time in Tex)

Tyler Naquin((meh).

Eddie Rosario(may get a starting gig)

Adam Duval(prob not good enough defensively)

Albert Almora(still young)

 

 

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2020, 12:44 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on December 29, 2020, 11:56 am

You have to believe that once COVID is under control, the Padres will be one of the more attractive teams not only nationwide but also in Japan/Korea to follow.  Who know what kind of merchandizing is in the future plus increased revenues from other media sources.  I'm not concerned with money if the owners aren't.

For those of you who may be looking at ways to shrink a payroll in 2020 to 2021, you can look at the RP changes that are probably upcoming.  Stammen and P Johnson go off the rolls for a net 5M savings.  Strahm is probably overvalued as a 2M middle RP, so if Castillo comes all the way back and Morejon is better suited for long relief, then there is savings to be had there; both P Johnson or Strahm could be traded during the 2020 season if others in the system (Baez, Espinoza, Thompson from the right side) show that they could replace P Johnson.  And then there is the 8 M we will save on Pham by replacing him with Abrams, who is projected to have about the same OBP/power profile but faster and certainly better defensively.  That's 13M saved with in-house replacements at close to major league minimum salaries.  Then there is whatever the Cubs are picking up on Darvish's salary in 2021 and/or beyond - probably no more than 5M per year.  Probably going to have to use some of this to begin to pay Tatis, Jr. but I'm guessing something like 1.5 M in 2021, 5 M in 2022, 15 M in 2023 and close to 25 M in 2024.  All this is doable given Myers, Clevinger, and possibly Hosmer coming off the rolls after 2022.  This is why guys like Campusano, Hassell, Head and Gore are extremely valuable as the composition of the team shifts over time.

Note that the whole rotation (Lamet, Snell and Darvish) are FA in 2024 along with Pomeranz but in the meantime enjoy them.  You know that Preller will be Preller so who know what happens before we even get to these kind of situations.  We'll be drafting very low for awhile but look for some international arms to come to the front in the next couple of years.

 

We need to get Morejon built up to be a starter for when these other guys are gone.

But having him in the bullpen may be necessary in 2021?

Should have Gore and Weathers for sure to take over for a couple guys....getting Paddack back to his dominant form becomes all the more important as well.

Unless traded Lucchesi could still be a decent #5 down the line.

 

Quote from hoffy51 on December 29, 2020, 12:44 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2020, 10:37 am

So I just heard on MLB network that the Padres are one of six teams still interested in Sugano!

I could be wrong (again!), but I don't believe this. I think they would go after a closer before another starter. Plus if he signed a three year deal, he would be blocking Gore, Weathers, Morejon, et al.

Quote from lafnboy13 on December 29, 2020, 1:03 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2020, 12:44 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on December 29, 2020, 11:56 am

You have to believe that once COVID is under control, the Padres will be one of the more attractive teams not only nationwide but also in Japan/Korea to follow.  Who know what kind of merchandizing is in the future plus increased revenues from other media sources.  I'm not concerned with money if the owners aren't.

For those of you who may be looking at ways to shrink a payroll in 2020 to 2021, you can look at the RP changes that are probably upcoming.  Stammen and P Johnson go off the rolls for a net 5M savings.  Strahm is probably overvalued as a 2M middle RP, so if Castillo comes all the way back and Morejon is better suited for long relief, then there is savings to be had there; both P Johnson or Strahm could be traded during the 2020 season if others in the system (Baez, Espinoza, Thompson from the right side) show that they could replace P Johnson.  And then there is the 8 M we will save on Pham by replacing him with Abrams, who is projected to have about the same OBP/power profile but faster and certainly better defensively.  That's 13M saved with in-house replacements at close to major league minimum salaries.  Then there is whatever the Cubs are picking up on Darvish's salary in 2021 and/or beyond - probably no more than 5M per year.  Probably going to have to use some of this to begin to pay Tatis, Jr. but I'm guessing something like 1.5 M in 2021, 5 M in 2022, 15 M in 2023 and close to 25 M in 2024.  All this is doable given Myers, Clevinger, and possibly Hosmer coming off the rolls after 2022.  This is why guys like Campusano, Hassell, Head and Gore are extremely valuable as the composition of the team shifts over time.

Note that the whole rotation (Lamet, Snell and Darvish) are FA in 2024 along with Pomeranz but in the meantime enjoy them.  You know that Preller will be Preller so who know what happens before we even get to these kind of situations.  We'll be drafting very low for awhile but look for some international arms to come to the front in the next couple of years.

 

We need to get Morejon built up to be a starter for when these other guys are gone.

But having him in the bullpen may be necessary in 2021?

Should have Gore and Weathers for sure to take over for a couple guys....getting Paddack back to his dominant form becomes all the more important as well.

Unless traded Lucchesi could still be a decent #5 down the line.

 

I really hope we stop with the practice of putting our blue chips in the bullpen.

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2020, 1:27 pm

Quote from hoffy51 on December 29, 2020, 12:44 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2020, 10:37 am

So I just heard on MLB network that the Padres are one of six teams still interested in Sugano!

I could be wrong (again!), but I don't believe this. I think they would go after a closer before another starter. Plus if he signed a three year deal, he would be blocking Gore, Weathers, Morejon, et al.

I find it hard to believe ... but this is Preller and gathering the most plus players is viewed as value added then sort it out later.

So, POSSIBLE!

On the "negative" side ... Padres know more of their roster than we do ... they just went all in on Darvish, Snell, and Kim to win now and in the next few years ... if they see Sugano out of the blocks a roster upgrade they make the move .... especially IF: 1) worried about Lamet' health; 2) worried about Paddack return to effectiveness; 3) worried about any of the prospects filling a slot in 2021 effectively.

Assuming they are comfortable giving all the prospects a year in the minors for development ... adding Sugano makes sense. The prospects become the call-up option (and that is always needed) and push out their control period one year.

If they are in to win now ... little room to "experiment" with prospects and need coverage for injury, ineffectiveness.

2022 ... deal with the "excess" via trade if needed. Think Paddack might generate a decent return with a good season (not a great season) ... remember he only as 4 years control, so only one more than Darvish, Snell, Lamet. Plus, yes, Paddack could end up in the pen unseating some of the marginal RP pieces or he still has minor league options to work out his issues as a starter.

Kim arguably came in a bit lower than the national media expected .... so maybe Sugano comes in under the earlier $24MM/2 years. A two year deal would fit nicely.

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2020, 1:39 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2020, 12:40 pm

Some 4th outfielder options off the top of my head:

Steven Souza(man he fell hard after a great 2017)

Delino Deshields and Nomar Mazara(both Preller guys from time in Tex)

Tyler Naquin((meh).

Eddie Rosario(may get a starting gig)

Adam Duval(prob not good enough defensively)

Albert Almora(still young)

 

 

 

 

I guess the threshold is the add really better than who he displaces ... likely Allen (#) for 3 OF slots or Mateo for INF/OF ... both at league minimum. Have to consider hitting, defensive skills/versatility, and base-running since the last two bench piece will need to show up in various positions to avoid moving the regulars around. Not going to get a lot of playing time.

Kim clearly is initially the INF and maybe OF first in ... then O'Grady (LHH) can cover all three OF/1B. Mateo, since he can handle INF/OF and is the PR specialist, is probably next to hold. Allen is on the bubble in my mind.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2020, 1:46 pm

I have zero confidence in Allen and Mateos ability to hit.....even as a fourth outfielder.

One injury to the starters and we have a hole in the lineup.I realize that would be the case with any fourth outfielder but would feel better having at lest "one" who has at least shown they can hit .250/315/400 in the Bigs

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 29, 2020, 2:05 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2020, 1:46 pm

I have zero confidence in Allen and Mateos ability to hit.....even as a fourth outfielder.

One injury to the starters and we have a hole in the lineup. I realize that would be the case with any fourth outfielder but would feel better having at lest "one" who has at least shown they can hit .250/315/400 in the Bigs

 

I think that we have more balance than you think. Nola, Cronenworth, and Kim can fill in at 3B, SS, 2B, and 1B. Caratini and O'Grady can both handle 1B as well. Carantini is a switch hitter.  I think both Cronenworth and Kim could handle the OF for a couple of games. Campy should be in AAA to be ready for a call up for catcher if needed. I would like to have a better option than Allen, still think maybe Pillar might be a good option. I do think the INF is really covered at this time.

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2020, 2:22 pm

Side note on a potential signing of Sugano .... we were debating inning management in 2021 after a very limited 2020 run by almost everyone. Back to the 6 man rotation?

Key may be for the Padres to get to the playoffs with a "fresh" set of starting pitchers then let them loose in the playoffs.