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Off Season Thread
Quote from brent wolff on December 23, 2020, 6:16 pm@Fenn, I don't see a full 162 game schedule in 2021. I think the start of the season will be in May. More time for everyone to get the Covid vaccine and thus allow for fans in the stands. I know players want to be paid for the full 162, but I just don't see how that is possible. MLB teams will be losing money if no fans in the stands again, hopefully the seasons begins sometime in May, the earlier the better, but at least by Memorial Day weekend at the latest. Expect another ugly round of negotiations between MLB and the players. Imo, it would be wise for them to come to an agreement for more than just 2021, but rather a new long-term agreement that has a May start for next year. Lots to hammer out and it will be very tough to predict a post world Covid financially. It is unforunate, but that is what I think realisticly happens. As I mentioned previously, I also think a 6-man rotation will be the norm for 2021 also and perhaps beyond, the 6-man rotation becomes the new norm. Go Pads!
@Fenn, I don't see a full 162 game schedule in 2021. I think the start of the season will be in May. More time for everyone to get the Covid vaccine and thus allow for fans in the stands. I know players want to be paid for the full 162, but I just don't see how that is possible. MLB teams will be losing money if no fans in the stands again, hopefully the seasons begins sometime in May, the earlier the better, but at least by Memorial Day weekend at the latest. Expect another ugly round of negotiations between MLB and the players. Imo, it would be wise for them to come to an agreement for more than just 2021, but rather a new long-term agreement that has a May start for next year. Lots to hammer out and it will be very tough to predict a post world Covid financially. It is unforunate, but that is what I think realisticly happens. As I mentioned previously, I also think a 6-man rotation will be the norm for 2021 also and perhaps beyond, the 6-man rotation becomes the new norm. Go Pads!
Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2020, 9:20 pmAgree an April start is unlikely. The negotiations will be once again challenging. Players are already pushing for a delayed end if a delayed start (still 162) ... more double headers and expanded rosters (still 162) Neither of those options are acceptable to the owners. Owners seem more inclined to a 130+/- season at this point with only one month loss. A long way to go with the virus / vaccine for states like CA to allow sufficient fans in the stands to appeal to CA owners ... but other states (e.g. TX, FLA) a different story. The key is when owners / union know what conditions to negotiate to ... not a big unknown and a moving target not in their control.
Hard for a GM to build a roster without some assurance of the length of the season, double headers, roster sizes ... especially if planning to be a legit contender. If teams can go to 14 pitchers (vs. the current limit of 13), then the strategy, composition can change. If the DH in the NL exists (reducing the PH needed) the strategy changes. If they stay at 26 but can use 14 pitchers (reducing the bench by one) the strategy changes.
Agree an April start is unlikely. The negotiations will be once again challenging. Players are already pushing for a delayed end if a delayed start (still 162) ... more double headers and expanded rosters (still 162) Neither of those options are acceptable to the owners. Owners seem more inclined to a 130+/- season at this point with only one month loss. A long way to go with the virus / vaccine for states like CA to allow sufficient fans in the stands to appeal to CA owners ... but other states (e.g. TX, FLA) a different story. The key is when owners / union know what conditions to negotiate to ... not a big unknown and a moving target not in their control.
Hard for a GM to build a roster without some assurance of the length of the season, double headers, roster sizes ... especially if planning to be a legit contender. If teams can go to 14 pitchers (vs. the current limit of 13), then the strategy, composition can change. If the DH in the NL exists (reducing the PH needed) the strategy changes. If they stay at 26 but can use 14 pitchers (reducing the bench by one) the strategy changes.
Quote from fenn68 on December 24, 2020, 9:29 amI see the Padres "interested" in Molina keeps popping up. (note: Preller is "interested" in everyone ... so there is that).
Not sure why given the potential price tag consuming a big chunk of the available salary that could be added. Molina is seeking a two year deal (probably $8MM +/- per year) and Nola is #1 (and the Padres paid a steep price for him).
So what logic for a Molina signing:
- Mejia slides to a DH role (or AAA for development)?
- Padres appreciate the catching skills from Molina (at 38 not full time) that could help Nola further develop (only been catching a few years) plus allows more use of Nola at 1B/2B/DH if needed.
- Molina behind the plate could be a great asset if the Padres go with multiple "young prospects" in the starting rotation ... makes the pitching better and pitching is the critical element to winning.
Would be surprised if this becomes a real signing ... but?
I see the Padres "interested" in Molina keeps popping up. (note: Preller is "interested" in everyone ... so there is that).
Not sure why given the potential price tag consuming a big chunk of the available salary that could be added. Molina is seeking a two year deal (probably $8MM +/- per year) and Nola is #1 (and the Padres paid a steep price for him).
So what logic for a Molina signing:
- Mejia slides to a DH role (or AAA for development)?
- Padres appreciate the catching skills from Molina (at 38 not full time) that could help Nola further develop (only been catching a few years) plus allows more use of Nola at 1B/2B/DH if needed.
- Molina behind the plate could be a great asset if the Padres go with multiple "young prospects" in the starting rotation ... makes the pitching better and pitching is the critical element to winning.
Would be surprised if this becomes a real signing ... but?
Quote from Randy Manese on December 24, 2020, 11:59 amLooks like my prediction that Rosenthal re-signs with the Padres before Christmas is not going to happen BUT I still think it will happen.
I'm not buying the elite prospect trades for a 34 year old Darvish and I have to be feeling really good about Snell and whether he can pitch at least 5 innings to include Morejon and Campusano in a trade for him. Deadlines for Japanese pitchers after posting may drive the market - let's see what happens in the next couple of days. For me, Rosenthal (or possibly Yates) is a must to say the offseason was a successful one. Once that happens, I think other moves may follow although we are probably looking at a later start date for opening day, so still plenty of time.
Looks like my prediction that Rosenthal re-signs with the Padres before Christmas is not going to happen BUT I still think it will happen.
I'm not buying the elite prospect trades for a 34 year old Darvish and I have to be feeling really good about Snell and whether he can pitch at least 5 innings to include Morejon and Campusano in a trade for him. Deadlines for Japanese pitchers after posting may drive the market - let's see what happens in the next couple of days. For me, Rosenthal (or possibly Yates) is a must to say the offseason was a successful one. Once that happens, I think other moves may follow although we are probably looking at a later start date for opening day, so still plenty of time.
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 26, 2020, 9:04 amThe quality of guys getting DFA'd to make room for FA signings is rising. Look at this guy. Mortal lock to be claimed.
In a corresponding move, the Rangers have designated right-hander Art Warren for assignment, notes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter).
Warren, 27, was claimed off waivers from the Mariners just after the 2020 season. He didn’t appear for the Mariners this season after making six scoreless appearances in 2019. Prior to making his Major League debut that season, Warren posted a sterling 1.71 ERA across 29 appearances totaling 31 2/3 innings in Double-A. He recorded 15 saves while finishing 22 games and showing swing-and-miss potential with 11.7 K/9.
Older, late round, small college I've never heard of (Ashland, OH?) guy. Deep depth on a not great Mariners team looking for RP's, and didn't even appear after they traded 3-4 MLB SP's to us, BUT...
2 Options left. 2018 (injuries) & 2019 combined @ AA Texas League: 47+ IP, 63 K, 27 BB, 1.27 WHIP, 1.71 ERA, .196 BAA plus 5+ IP in MLB @ 0 ERA 5 K, 2 BB... looks like awfully good "deep depth" to me.
The quality of guys getting DFA'd to make room for FA signings is rising. Look at this guy. Mortal lock to be claimed.
In a corresponding move, the Rangers have designated right-hander Art Warren for assignment, notes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter).
Warren, 27, was claimed off waivers from the Mariners just after the 2020 season. He didn’t appear for the Mariners this season after making six scoreless appearances in 2019. Prior to making his Major League debut that season, Warren posted a sterling 1.71 ERA across 29 appearances totaling 31 2/3 innings in Double-A. He recorded 15 saves while finishing 22 games and showing swing-and-miss potential with 11.7 K/9.
Older, late round, small college I've never heard of (Ashland, OH?) guy. Deep depth on a not great Mariners team looking for RP's, and didn't even appear after they traded 3-4 MLB SP's to us, BUT...
2 Options left. 2018 (injuries) & 2019 combined @ AA Texas League: 47+ IP, 63 K, 27 BB, 1.27 WHIP, 1.71 ERA, .196 BAA plus 5+ IP in MLB @ 0 ERA 5 K, 2 BB... looks like awfully good "deep depth" to me.
Quote from Randy Manese on December 26, 2020, 10:11 amThe 27 BB in 47+ innings would probably scare me off from Warren, but your point is well-taken. Pool of FA RP arms and those that could be obtained in trade is huge and Padres, especially from the right side, already have a slew of them. Pagan, P Johnson, Adams, Stammen, Altavilla, Guerra, Williams, Bednar, Wingenter, Espinoza, Thompson and even Patino and Baez just on the 40 man. Drop down to the current AAA/AA rosters and you get Avila, Bachar, Cristmatt, C. Johnson, Markel, Miller, Nix, Valdez and even Steven Wilson as possible arms that could be brought up in a dire emergency. RP's are typically so volatile from year to year that you want a large field to chose from. Competition makes everyone better!
The 27 BB in 47+ innings would probably scare me off from Warren, but your point is well-taken. Pool of FA RP arms and those that could be obtained in trade is huge and Padres, especially from the right side, already have a slew of them. Pagan, P Johnson, Adams, Stammen, Altavilla, Guerra, Williams, Bednar, Wingenter, Espinoza, Thompson and even Patino and Baez just on the 40 man. Drop down to the current AAA/AA rosters and you get Avila, Bachar, Cristmatt, C. Johnson, Markel, Miller, Nix, Valdez and even Steven Wilson as possible arms that could be brought up in a dire emergency. RP's are typically so volatile from year to year that you want a large field to chose from. Competition makes everyone better!
Quote from fenn68 on December 26, 2020, 10:22 amYeh, he has a 95MPH FB ... but have to wonder why two teams (not particularly good) would put him on waivers ... Seattle and now Texas with two option years remaining.
Good chance he gets claimed but not sure a team with a full roster would DFA someone to take a flyer on him. Probably wait for him to clear waivers ... declare FA ... and try to sign him on a minor league deal.
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Ashland College is one of a very large number of "small" liberal arts colleges in Ohio ... back in the day had a very good small school basketball program.
Yeh, he has a 95MPH FB ... but have to wonder why two teams (not particularly good) would put him on waivers ... Seattle and now Texas with two option years remaining.
Good chance he gets claimed but not sure a team with a full roster would DFA someone to take a flyer on him. Probably wait for him to clear waivers ... declare FA ... and try to sign him on a minor league deal.
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Ashland College is one of a very large number of "small" liberal arts colleges in Ohio ... back in the day had a very good small school basketball program.
Quote from Ben Davey on December 26, 2020, 1:46 pmTake someone like Guerra. He is young, can hit triple digits, and could legitimately be one of the top relievers in baseball. He also could never pitch another game in the majors again. Same goes with someone like Jose Castillo. Will he ever be healthy?
Even 10 years ago nearly every team would jump at the chance to claim him (or pick someone like him up in the Rule V). But now, pitchers that can throw 95+ and have the ability to be great if they can locate are common practice. Every team has multiple of them. So is a claim on any of them worth it? Especially when two lower teams have already given up on him?
Most teams would rather work with their own reclamation project, and only willing to give up and get others when they feel like all hope is lost. The fact that Guerra is still here is a reason for hope, and a reason why we wont make other random claims
Take someone like Guerra. He is young, can hit triple digits, and could legitimately be one of the top relievers in baseball. He also could never pitch another game in the majors again. Same goes with someone like Jose Castillo. Will he ever be healthy?
Even 10 years ago nearly every team would jump at the chance to claim him (or pick someone like him up in the Rule V). But now, pitchers that can throw 95+ and have the ability to be great if they can locate are common practice. Every team has multiple of them. So is a claim on any of them worth it? Especially when two lower teams have already given up on him?
Most teams would rather work with their own reclamation project, and only willing to give up and get others when they feel like all hope is lost. The fact that Guerra is still here is a reason for hope, and a reason why we wont make other random claims
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 26, 2020, 2:29 pmRumors are we are interested in Korean SS Kim.
Talented player....but does this make any sense?
My only guess is AJ is working two steps ahead and maybe there is a potential trade in the works involving Cronenworth?
I don’t see any other reason we would be considering paying starter money for a middle infielder right now.
Amyone else heard anything or have any other ideas why we would be interested here?
Rumors are we are interested in Korean SS Kim.
Talented player....but does this make any sense?
My only guess is AJ is working two steps ahead and maybe there is a potential trade in the works involving Cronenworth?
I don’t see any other reason we would be considering paying starter money for a middle infielder right now.
Amyone else heard anything or have any other ideas why we would be interested here?
Quote from Randy Manese on December 26, 2020, 3:09 pmI just don't see it. Rumors have Kim getting multiple team offers for a 5 year contract, which has got to be somewhere between 30-50 M or more. If I'm spending that kind of money, I'm going after Profar and I still haven't paid Tatis yet in negotiating an extension in recognition of his talent and respect for the player he means to the team. As for Cronenworth, I think he'll be fine. He seemed to tire in September but had a great series against the Cardinals. Rest him occasionally against lefties and I think we have pretty much a solid everyday player - much like Grisham.
Jorge Mateo having a good year in the Dominican Winter League - much better than in previous years. Eguy doing the same in Venezuela but surprisingly has only 1 extra base hit - Eguy has shown surprising extra base pop in minors for his age/size. With Arias gone, outside of the recent minor league FA pick-ups, Eguy is probably the closest home grown middle infield prospect we have to the majors - he could surprise (I'm saying Abrams goes to CF!). Wouldn't it be something if everything finally clicked for Mateo? Mateo is playing exclusively at ss in the Dominican while Eguy mostly 3b and a little bit of 2b, which probably is his best position.
I just don't see it. Rumors have Kim getting multiple team offers for a 5 year contract, which has got to be somewhere between 30-50 M or more. If I'm spending that kind of money, I'm going after Profar and I still haven't paid Tatis yet in negotiating an extension in recognition of his talent and respect for the player he means to the team. As for Cronenworth, I think he'll be fine. He seemed to tire in September but had a great series against the Cardinals. Rest him occasionally against lefties and I think we have pretty much a solid everyday player - much like Grisham.
Jorge Mateo having a good year in the Dominican Winter League - much better than in previous years. Eguy doing the same in Venezuela but surprisingly has only 1 extra base hit - Eguy has shown surprising extra base pop in minors for his age/size. With Arias gone, outside of the recent minor league FA pick-ups, Eguy is probably the closest home grown middle infield prospect we have to the majors - he could surprise (I'm saying Abrams goes to CF!). Wouldn't it be something if everything finally clicked for Mateo? Mateo is playing exclusively at ss in the Dominican while Eguy mostly 3b and a little bit of 2b, which probably is his best position.




