Quote from fenn68 on December 21, 2020, 1:42 pm

Just heard a Peter Siedler interview .... couple of tidbits:

1. He seems "comfortable" with the Tatis extension talk ... very positive about Tatis beyond just the on the field play. Expect serious discussions during the winter.
2. Seemed confident that we will see FA/trades before the season starts ... and some new players on the roster.
3. Positive comments about Gore, Patino, Morejon, Weathers for the future (just the names on the tip of his lips)
4. SP is a primary target (in-line with Preller's comments).
5. "Budget" was interesting and a bit harder to analyze in relation to 2021 moves. He said the works in a 5 year horizon for budgets. So IF a deal makes sense for 2021 that increases the payroll it could happen IF he sees it fitting into the 5 year budget. However, he does not seeing spending for 2021 JUST to spend up to a budget level. Hard to see what they see ... future has potential major upticks for Tatis, Paddack, Lamet, etc. but big drops from Pham, Myers, Hosmer ... but a future need for filling those slots. That is a lot of moving parts and assumptions to be made.
6. Reiterated the desire of consistency in winning ... so apparently not interested in going "all in" at the expense of the future.

================

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 21, 2020, 1:51 pm

Saw some more comments by the national media types (take that for what it is worth) about Sugano ... positive.

Basically the second best FA pitcher out there (behind Bauer) and well above the rest ... he may even be near a TOR arm.

He is a "money only" gamble ... and really only money level above the alternatives in FA (or at some level the trade targets) at risk. Tanaka and Odorizzi ... the others are all still gambles to a great extent.

I still have to rely on Preller's scouting staff ... but spending on Sugano (and preserving all the prospects ... either for team use or for other trades) is beginning to sound really appealing. We should know which fork in the road the Padres take in a couple of weeks.

Quote from fenn68 on December 22, 2020, 8:39 am

Looks as though the Padres signed two minor league RP.

1. Nick Ramirez (L) .. 31 ... not a hard thrower but "interesting" because he was apparently converted from a 1B to RP just a couple of years ago and did see some ML time as a RP.
2. Nick Burdi (R) ... 28 ... former big time RP prospect who has beset by injuries ... TJ in 2017 and last season was shut down with an elbow injury. However, before the shutdown, he was around 99-100 MPH with his FB.

Both are low cost shots and clearly Burdi his some big time upside. Guessing the Padres reviewed his medicals and thought he was worth the gamble while Burdi must have seen SD as his best option (maybe the view of the medical staff / rehab protocols?).

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 22, 2020, 9:13 am

I remember Nick Burdi...  it must be a 2 year minors deal; he is out all 2021... like Mike Clevinger with 2 TJ's now; they are on basically the same rehab/recovery timeline.

November 2, 2020

PITTSBURGH -- After being set back by Tommy John surgery in 2017 and neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome in '19, Nick Burdi believed he was ready to establish himself as a late-inning reliever in '20.

Burdi had a strong preseason camp, struck out the side in his first appearance of the season then earned his long-awaited first save on July 28. He made only two more appearances before going on the 45-day injured list with what the Pirates initially called a “right elbow injury” and later referred to as a “significant” forearm strain.

As it turns out, Burdi was dealing with an injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery for the second time in his young career. The 27-year-old right-hander underwent the operation last month, and he will spend the entire 2021 season recovering.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 22, 2020, 9:19 am

Another thought about going for free agents via trade is that after last season San Diego is now a desired location for players.

It’s always been a “nice city to live in” but now we are known for being a good team and extremely “fun to watch”.

If we are fun to watch it must be amazing to play for this team right now.

Just as recently as 2019 free agents wouldn’t choose San Diego if they were “in it to win it”.

Only if we overpaid or if they were trying to resurrect their career or had no other options.....this isn’t the case anymore.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 22, 2020, 9:22 am

The best city in the U.S. being thought of as a 2nd or 3rd tier FA destination in the past always drove me NUTS!

It felt like the team was wasting a HUGE relative advantage for landing FA's... think now it finally is.

If a FA is deciding between 2 destinations, there is a really good chance he's going to lean SD's way.  It used to be the opposite.

Quote from fenn68 on December 22, 2020, 10:02 am

Don't think many FA would have come to SD in the past because 1. the Padres would not pay the going rate, and 2) the Padres were a very bad team for a decade. I like living in SD but even I would not give up a couple years of my career (and earning power) just to be in SD on a losing team for the short term.

Don't really think SD (the city) is that big a factor in a player's decision if you consider how many maintain their primary home in other states and are here only for the season then depart as soon as there SD career is over. After money, playing time, and winning organization ... maybe being close to family ... are all ahead of the city selected. A large number of East Coast, South, and Mid-West players love "home" and probably don't like CA (and its high taxes, etc.).

How many current Padres actually own a home in SD (vs. summer apartment / condo)? ... how many have had their family move to SD full time?

On Burdi, wouldn't he more likely be doing rehab at home and the AZ complex next year?

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 22, 2020, 4:33 pm

It might appeal to Burdi & Clevinger to have someone else in the same injury boat on the exact same rehab timeline.  Would Clev rehab in AZ too during season, or move to SD as a roster guy?

Nick Ramirez is an interesting good signing.  31 y.o. LHRP convertee from 1B (6' 4", 230+ lbs) who hit almost 100 HR in the minors.  I was really surprised he's logged > 90 MLB IP for Detroit last 2 years.  Getting outrighted twice by Detroit in 2 years says a lot, but statline not bad:  1.36 WHIP, 4.28 ERA, .241 BAA, 85 K.  Too many BB (39).  1.19 WHIP & 2.53 ERA in  > 170 Minors IP. Still all 3 options left despite age.   Definitely a way better AB than the average P in a runaway win or loss in the middle innings....

Every year roughly 50% of the Minors FA P (Re) Signs are cut end of ST or into season.  Simply depth against injury.  BUT unusual dynamic with all the out of options 40-man RP this year.  All simply can't stay on roster unless there are a lot of injuries.  Either way, the non-40 man RP's move up in the pecking order & closer to MLB.  Likely to see some of these optionable guys during the season, after some of the non-optionable guys are either injured or traded; opening 40-man & active roster spots.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2020, 12:33 pm

Interesting discussion on (and this should make some happy) ML teams going to a 6 man rotation in 2021 ... maybe not all but many. All to reduce the inning workload on all starters given the lost 2020.

That would max the starters at 27 starts (and somewhere between 130-160 innings) ... keep in mind it is the reduced innings that is the objective. If the Padres went that route ... some potential implications considering one (or more) of the initial six will get injured ... under perform ... still need a "break" resulting in the 7th (and maybe 8th) SP seeing ML time and needs to be ML competent if they want to contend ... losses because of an ineffective pitchers hurt.

For SP ... if you start with the assumption that they go with 1. Lamet, 2. Davies, 3. Paddack, 4. Gore, 5. Patino, 6. Morejon ... then the call-up level 7. Weathers, 8. Lucchesi ... beyond that stretching to think any 2021 ML quality. Given that mix, hard to see trading one (or two) of this group to just get another arm (unless one for one with a quality upgrade). If it is a quality upgrade ... will be carrying a good size contract so doesn't it make more sense to spend on the FA market (maybe even "overpay") to ensure the depth of SP?

For RP ... the Padres may have a problem with the out of option group. SP will consume the same number of innings (just spread over more pitchers) ... result is the RP will pitch the same number of innings spread over 7 instead of 8 RP .. about a 14% increase in individual workload (and an argument could be made that their innings should be managed as the SP). Recipe for burnout in the pen and it is setting up for at least 4 out of option RP in the pen. Padres may need to be prepared for DFA action mid-season / and capable AAA replacements to avoid a late season meltdown or make some hard DFA moves in ST and include some "optional eligible" in the pen to start the season.

6 months ... 162 games ... while controlling workload on pitchers .... going to need a lot of ML capable arms to stay in contention.