Quote from MrPadre19 on December 18, 2020, 6:59 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2020, 3:44 pm

My GM plan of moment...

1.  Sign Sugano or ?? 15 MM AAV max (not counting posting fee, which I know does count)
2.  Do the "100% of Stammen's salary + Joey" trade, BUT for a decent MLB backup/bench position player maybe in Arb @ 1-2 MM.
3.  Sign Yates for 1 yr + option + incentives with as low base as possible.

Done.  That's probably 20 MM+ spent, but 4-5 MM saved.

Who’s the Closer....Yates?

I “really” want to sign Rosenthal.

But if that means no Sugano(or another #3 or better Starter) I’d be OK with it.

We should be OK with Pom/Yates/Pagàn.

I also really hope Castillo is pitching the 7th inning next season.

That would  mean he’s completely healthy and productive.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2020, 9:25 am

I know the various media are highlighting the pursuit of a SP .. some still call that a pursuit of a TOR arm that does not exist on the FA market (not considering Bauer). However, if the top of the FA pack are Tanaka and Odorizzi ... both 31 ... both projected at $13MM / year for 3 years (and considering the projections have been low for SP this winter probably more) ... both at his stage not likely to be better (or as good as) and #3 on a good staff ... not sure would even go down that route. If worried about 2021 value, that value in 2022-23 may be even less with the kids likely ready, and there salary clogging up the payroll preventing max spending on a LF/DH in 2022 then a RF in 2023. The FA SP that follow may be cheaper but just unreliable as to production / health. Might just stay away form a FA SP unless it is one of the those rebound types on a minor league incentive laded deals just as cover. Gamble on Lamet, Davies, Paddack, Lucchesi, and the kids and put the money in the pen (or just don't spend).

Saguno is just a wild card unknown ... ability in the ML and cost .. plus he too is 31.

Last I saw the ask in a trade for Gray was still in the range of two of the Padres top 5 plus and that is steep for what is looking like a shortened 2021 and likely a lockout in 2022 eroding his actually playing time with his three years control while still cutting into funds with his salary.

Just have the feeling that we will be underwhelmed by any SP acquisition this winter and are setting up a 3 year lament about opportunities lost. Idea > reality?

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 18, 2020, 9:45 am

“Idea >reality”?

Probably......but that’s what this board is for!😉

But if AJ doesn’t think two of the young guns will be ready this year by opening day I have a feeling he will be adding a Starter.

Every year we think we have a set 5 and someone gets hurt or just doesn’t perform.

We thought Lucchesi could at least hold down the #5 spot.

We didn’t count on injuries to both Clev and Lamet.

Who thought Paddack would take such a huge step backward?

I don’t think he wants to “count on” 2 or 3 of Gore/Patińo/Weathers/Morejon to pitch meaningful innings in 2021.

One sure.....two maybe....but we’re ready to win now...counting on Lucchesi and these young kids can’t be the ideal plan.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 18, 2020, 9:48 am

As we stand “right now” our #3 starter had a 4.73 era last year and our #4 was demoted off the 25 man roster.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2020, 9:57 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2020, 3:44 pm

My GM plan of moment...

1.  Sign Sugano or ?? 15 MM AAV max (not counting posting fee, which I know does count)
2.  Do the "100% of Stammen's salary + Joey" trade, BUT for a decent MLB backup/bench position player maybe in Arb @ 1-2 MM.
3.  Sign Yates for 1 yr + option + incentives with as low base as possible.

Done.  That's probably 20 MM+ spent, but 4-5 MM saved.

Not sure whether you want to make the Stammen + Lucchesi deal just to get rid of Stammen or get rid of Stammen's contract (both worthwhile objectives). However, toss in some "alternative" moves:

1. Padres eat 1/2 of the contract ... do not include Lucchesi? Someone would bite on Stammen for $2MMish, I think. Padres keep their #4 SP (or #5 is they sign a FA) and have another $2MM to deploy. Padres toss in a minor prospect if needed to size the sharing of the contract.
2. Padres couple Stammen ($4MM) and Strahm ($2MM and controlled for 2022) for prospects ... clear $6MM to deploy. Castillo or Morejon fill Strahm's RP slot. Lucchesi remains as the bottom of the rotation starter until unseated by one of the kids.

Philadelphia? Dombrowski likes to spend money and win now ... Philadelphia had the worst RP in ML (> 7 ERA) in 2020 ... Strahm would immediately become the #1 on ERA and even Stammen would sit about #4. Philly would still likely be in the hunt for the better FA RP ... could see 4-6 new faces in their pen next season.

Sort of the chicken and egg with SP and until a better option is in hand ... don't move Lucchesi. As in the other post, not thrilled with the FA options given the potential money/years likely. Not sure that even in 2021 they would be more than 10-20% better than Lucchesi with a 4.10 ERA+/- and 160ish innings at league minimum cost. Actually if Lucchesi delivered that in 2021 ... he would be a significant trade chip next winter. IFs abound.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 18, 2020, 10:41 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2020, 9:57 am

 

1. Padres couple Stammen ($4MM) and Strahm ($2MM and controlled for 2022) for prospects ... clear $6MM to deploy. Castillo or Morejon fill Strahm's RP slot. Lucchesi remains as the bottom of the rotation starter until unseated by one of the kids.

Philadelphia? Dombrowski likes to spend money and win now ... Philadelphia had the worst RP in ML (> 7 ERA) in 2020 ... Strahm would immediately become the #1 on ERA and even Stammen would sit about #4. Philly would still likely be in the hunt for the better FA RP ... could see 4-6 new faces in their pen next season.

MLBTR has predicted a 2 for $14M for Rosenthal, so with a an offer from SD for 2021 - $6M and 2022 for $8M, that could get Rosenthal back in the mix for the savings of Strahm and Stammen. That would work for me.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 18, 2020, 2:43 pm

Not sure whether you want to make the Stammen + Lucchesi deal just to get rid of Stammen or get rid of Stammen's contract (both worthwhile objectives). However, toss in some "alternative" moves:

1. Padres eat 1/2 of the contract ... do not include Lucchesi? Someone would bite on Stammen for $2MMish, I think. Padres keep their #4 SP (or #5 is they sign a FA) and have another $2MM to deploy. Padres toss in a minor prospect if needed to size the sharing of the contract.

2. Padres couple Stammen ($4MM) and Strahm ($2MM and controlled for 2022) for prospects ... clear $6MM to deploy. Castillo or Morejon fill Strahm's RP slot. Lucchesi remains as the bottom of the rotation starter until unseated by one of the kids.

I personally like Stammen as a person & player, and hope we keep him.  The reason I keep pushing the trade is to clear the salary due to these 3 points:   1)  Too many out of options pen vets.  Stammen is the most logical trade out due to age & $.  2) Joey's "value" clock is in it's last year too; assuming he's arb eligible next offseason, his arb salary just from staying healthy & starting for (so far) 2 full seasons + whatever happens this year will increase his 1st year arb $ into the 3-4 MM range.  This is the last season he has any significant trade value.  3)  Financial limitations of offseason.  If we had $40 MM to spend, we really wouldn't "need" to make this move.  It's overly simplistic, but I keep envisioning this $ as an exchange of Stammen for Yates; Stammen is more "replaceable"; already has been with A. Adams, maybe Altavilla, etc.

Option 1 is a good one & I agree; vet bullpen leader who's a great person and stays healthy, eats innings, and has seen it all is worth way > minimum:  Think 2 MM is right.   We need Joey more with Clevinger down.  The hurdle to this is we have multiple OTHER RP's in the 2 MM or less category who teams would want more / have more trade value than Stammen.  Think I'd rather just have Stammen than save 2 MM... not enough $ to do anything meaningful?

Strahm is one of those alternative trade candidate, but way fewer teams would be interested in the combo of he & Strahm for 6 MM than he & Lucchesi/Baez (SP) for 4 MM + minimum salary.  Could get a better prospect for Strahm than Stammen @ "same" 2 MM salary, but getting a prospect not the objective, and again, is it worth it to lose a good (LH) RP & "only" gain 2 MM + a prospect?

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2020, 3:21 pm

The only reason I mentioned Strahm is that I think he could be asset that motivates another team to take Stammen .... and both contracts. Would not deal Strahm on his own since I like him out of the pen. Sort of depends on how the Padres would use the $6MM.

Better chance they can reconstruct the bullpen without Strahm / Stammen (and $6MM extra) than build a starting rotation after Lamet, Davies, and Paddack without Lucchesi. That would be two adds of SP ... in this market where SP is way over priced.

Not really a Lucchesi fan ... but with 4 years control and league minimum on a staff may struggle at the top 3 (Lamet’s injury and Paddack’s inconsistency) and no one established for the other two slots ... he is way more valuable to the Padres in 2021 than just a vehicle to get Stammen dealt and save $4MM. Frankly IF I would deal Lucchesi ... I would be one of those irrational GMs and in this market and demand a quality return. Actually if he pitches to his history in 2021 ,,, next winter he really would command a positive return worth a lot more than saving $4MM this year.

Hold on Lucchesi and find another mix to move Stammen and his contract ... and given this roster ... probably has to be a second tier prospect.

======

Your other comment mirrors my concern on the pen ... filled with out of option marginal RHRP. Pagan can be (but will not be) ... the four survive out of Adams, Johnson, Stammen, Altavilla, Williams, and Guerra. Less if someone beats one out for the 26 man. And that is if they don’t sign reinforcements. Not only the end of ST DFAs are a challenge but if four make the roster ... really an issue during the season if one struggles / needs a rest ... can’t option really reducing flexibility.

I think Pagan, Johnson, and Adams stick ... then if they add Yates or Rosenthal ... four get DFA? How long does Preller wait before trying to move some of these long jam pieces or is he happy to see who wins out and can live with the DFA at the end of ST?

Quote from fenn68 on December 18, 2020, 3:30 pm

Looks as though Tatis has signed a major national deal with Gatorade. Great for both him and the Padres getting him on the national stage for visibility.

Talent and personality is a strong selling point.

Doubt this has any impact on the extension negotiations ... both sides seemed very motivated to move in that direction. However, getting Gatorade money now MAY allow Tatis to be more flexible in backloading the deal and minimizing the upfront bonus. That can only help the negotiations.