Quote from fenn68 on October 19, 2020, 10:52 am

Tricky interrelationship of one move altering the next.

1. Don’t think in the FA season there will be much a trade opportunity for Moreland unless it is at the trade deadline. Padres got him for a playoff run as a DH and he was hot. Just don’t see a team (with plentiful alternatives ... and maybe cheaper) wanting to pay his $3MM and give up anything. He is just a non-fielding DH vs RHP ... not a big market.

2. Although I expect the Padres like Profar ... getting the sense the INITIAL view of Profar’s contract demand is greater than the Padres want to lay out for him. Maybe later in the FA season that demand drops ... just don’t know if that would be after the Padres made other moves to tap the available payroll space.

3. Given what sets up as a limited amount to spend on all upgrades .... a 3rd catcher above league minimum is a luxury so expect a league minimum - $1MM emergency type.

4. I think they need to give Mejia a long serious ML look in 2021. Part-time catcher and DH ... even 1B/OF. He had a good 2019 offensively for a young player and his rep was as a hitter ... bit early to give up even if he will not be the catcher of the future. Looking at 2022 and Pham / Moreland are gone with no clear replacements. If you know that Mejia can occupy the DH role and Campusano is ML ready ... that really minimizes the overhaul needed next winter. Not going to get all that much if he is traded now ... even though Cassavell seems to be keep reporting that is on the table.

5. I know the discussion has been around Nola getting some DH time vs LHP if Moreland is around BUT should we also consider him at 2B creating a different need for a player to balance Moreland at DH? I know Cronenworth is ROY quality but looking at his stat line ... he has really poor performance vs. LHP for the full season and, maybe more troublesome is his poor September after a blazing hot Jul-Aug. Maybe this makes a case for Preller to add a “strong” RHH middle INF ... in case?

With limited money ... take one option shuts the door on a second option ... difficult decision tree to work in the right order. This has not even addressed the desire to “improve the bullpen” and, per Cassavell, the desire for another SP not named Bauer.

Quote from Ben Davey on October 19, 2020, 10:37 pm

With sabermetrics a forefront in baseball, I think the question for the offseason (offense) might be... who plays everyday and who would be better served as a R/L platoon?  Dang the Dodgers play it up with really good players in Joc, Taylor, Rios, Pollock, etc...

To me the only ones that are matchup proof are Tatis and Machado.  Myers actually did really well against both last year.  Grisham hit .267/.333/.417 against LHP.  Cro .218/.295/.255 and Hosmer .204/.245/.367 are the two biggest ones that should.  Nola and Mejia were also horrible against lefties but really small sample size.  Pham has reverse splits struggling against RHP last year .177/.278/.215

So realistically, you can say Tatis, Machado, Myers, and Grisham start everyday.  Realistically you need two bench spots to go to people that can hit LHP well.  That way 2 of 3 can be 2B/1B/DH against lefties.  As much as we want to say "Hos is making the money he should play" he either should sit or bat further down the lineup.

A name I would look at...
CJ Cron, almost the reverse Hosmer in L/R splits.  Is coming off a major injury (only played 13 games this year), so could be cheaper.  Would be great to pencil in against lefties at either DH or 1B.
Then if Profar is cheap enough resign him (actually wouldnt be a bad idea as Cro cant hit lefties, and Pham wasnt great against RHP.  Profar would start every game against a LHP at 2B, a split time 50/50 in LF with Pham against RHP).

BTW I think if Morelands option is picked up, Profar isnt back.  Profar in LF = Pham at DH.  No place for Moreland to play.  Save the 2.5 mil to up the offer on Profar (if he is still asking for 10+ mil then good luck)

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 20, 2020, 7:30 am

The Moreland decision has to come before Profar's, and even if Moreland is not retained, it doesn't guarantee Profar returns.  Could create 2 holes.  People keep alluding to "lots of options" for LH DH vs RHP (75% of the time), but not mentioning any actual names.  Even in this market I don't see where team gets >/= Moreland for 2.5 MM.

Think the Padres, like many teams need a better idea on the range of where the arb eligible guys are going to land.  Until those figures are exchanged & teams have an idea on best/worst/likely $ spent on all those guys is, they won't really know what they have to work with in FA.  A variation of 5 MM could have a huge impact on course Padres pursue.

Quote from fenn68 on October 20, 2020, 7:34 am

Looking at his career splits and Pham is over .800 OPS vs both LHP and RHP (note league is about .740 against both). He plays everyday be it LF or DH.

Actually Nola is above league average for his career (short career) at .778 v LHP and .882 v RHP.

Assuming a DH ... would focus the problem of hitting LHP on Cronenworth, Hosmer, and Moreland. Not likely the Padres can find the right platoon pieces for all three ... at a price that can fit into the budget .... and provide coverage as back-up for other positions. With Moreland as the DH and a back-up catcher Padres only have three other bench options and one has to be a 3 position OF (Allen?) and one an INF (Mateo?) .... neither will help offensively. That leaves only one spot to strategically fill (and a salary that fits).

Assuming they keep Mejia as the 2nd catcher ... at a league minimum cost ... he (especially for a catcher) is OK offensively based on his 2019 season .... v LHP 279 BA / 700 OPS .... v RHP 261 BA / 773 OPS. He could free up Nola for spot starts at DH, 1B, or 2B and upgrade the offense v LHP. That helps.

Still a window is open to replace Garcia (who can't hit LHP at all) as the last bench player and that RHH upgrade ... but cost makes that hard if the Padres are prioritizing RP/SP for upgrades. Add that behind Allen (OF) and Mateo (INF) not much in AAA/AA although expect a number of veteran ML players to be signed to non-roster deals for AAA and call-ups.

Ideally that added RHH can either play the INF or OF (or both) for some greater flexibility. We have seen Tingler likes to use the DH to "rest" regulars from playing the field ... probably will do that more over a full 162 game schedule. So making the added RHH a DH/1B only type unlikely.

I guess they could shift from supplementing the current roster to replace pieces with upgrades such as replacing Allen and/or Mateo with more offense oriented players who can play in the field or be used as DH .... maybe replace Moreland with an option that has either INF or OF capabilities. Can't logically make four "upgrade" moves (from Garcia, Allen, Mateo, and Moreland) big limit on options available at a cost within payroll limitations.

The wild cards are Campusano and Ona ... both RHH but neither with a ML track record. I think they need to start 2021 in the minors for development ... not sure what the Padres think. Remember, many though at the start of 2019 Tatis and Paddack should start in the minors given where they were in 2018 minors. Padres had a different view. Keep Campusano and can free up both Nola and Mejia for DH/field roles. Keep Ona and frees up Pham/Myers to rotate to DH ... maybe Myers to 1B. Even if the Padres think time in the minors will be "short" ... less incentive to add an expensive RHH into the mix.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 20, 2020, 7:39 am

Don't understand the "Pads will pursue RP" idea popping up either.

Padres added EIGHT multi-year control RP's last year:  Pom, Pagan, A. Adams, Tim Hill, Pierce Johnson, Stammen, Altavilla, and Taylor Williams.  That's an entire Bullpen.  Maybe the 1st time in MLB history a team has done that?  Only Hill can be optioned.

Still have Strahm, Jose Castillo, Perdomo, Guerra, and Bednar too.

That's up to 13 guys.  Even with some trades, non-tenders, etc... to me it's RH Closer (i.e. try to retain Rosenthal or Yates) or bust.

With that one exception, otherwise really can't add a vet guy/s from FA; where would they go?  They could use more young pre-arb guys with options, but those guys would have to come in trade, and our main trade asset is....  MLB RP.

Quote from fenn68 on October 20, 2020, 8:27 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 20, 2020, 7:39 am

Don't understand the "Pads will pursue RP" idea popping up either.

Padres added EIGHT multi-year control RP's last year:  Pom, Pagan, A. Adams, Tim Hill, Pierce Johnson, Stammen, Altavilla, and Taylor Williams.  That's an entire Bullpen.  Maybe the 1st time in MLB history a team has done that?  Only Hill can be optioned.

Still have Strahm, Jose Castillo, Perdomo, Guerra, and Bednar too.

That's up to 13 guys.  Even with some trades, non-tenders, etc... to me it's RH Closer (i.e. try to retain Rosenthal or Yates) or bust.

With that one exception, otherwise really can't add a vet guy/s from FA; where would they go?  They could use more young pre-arb guys with options, but those guys would have to come in trade, and our main trade asset is....  MLB RP.

Agree ... but local reporting keeps going back (assume it is based on comments from the Padres) to pitching RP/SP being a primary focus.

RH closer (Rosenthal / Yates) makes some sense as a major step up from the current options considering Playoff hopes for 2021. Either would consume payroll space.

Since extensive use of RP is now the norm in MLB ... and considering a 162 game season ... maybe the "volume" of rostered RP is not viewed as enough "quality" and creates a constraint with few being able to be optioned. Stammen, Altavilla, Adams, Johnson, Guerra, Williams .... all with no options available ... now provide the four RH arms behind Pagan. Not much proven there. Even if they add that closer ... do they effectively cover the remaining three RHRP slots. Can they wait until ST or the season to find out if they want to contend?

I suspect trade is the preferred option (after Rosenthal/Yates)... but not much to trade to get a quality RP (and I would not deal one of the top prospects for mercurial RP). In theory, a trade could get them a lower cost, longer control option that is an upgrade over the current mix ... in theory but very hard in reality.

Sort of the same head scratcher for adding SP (quality is not cheap) ... so more likely here it is a dumpster rebound gamble to evaluate in ST and provide insurance a string of injuries with some veteran arm.

A few million here ... a few million there and pretty soon most of the payroll flexibility is exhausted for pitching.

If the Padres are focusing on upgrading pitching ... I guess we could interpret that they are not that concerned about the offense ... good news for Moreland, not good news for Profar ... and makes the chances of Campusano and Ona more than we may have guessed.

Quote from fenn68 on October 20, 2020, 8:56 am

Someone else connected these dots as pure speculation ... highly unlikely but "some" logic for both teams.

Despite a very good 2020 (short window) ... reports are that Preller is still looking for a trade partner to move Myers (and a big chunk of his contract ... $41MM/2 years).

SD and MILW have worked deals in the past.

MILW has Braun going FA after the season ... 37 years old / $18MM ... likely not to be resigned. Miller Park is a power hitter's heaven and they need some added offense and a 1B. Myers could side to 1B and his contract fits as a replacement for Braun's. MILW has a real shot to rebound in 2021 with Cain back, expected rebound of Yelich, a very good set of SP at the top, and a lights out rookie closer.

At the trade deadline, a lot of rumors that MILW may offer up Josh Hader ... elite LHRP (but effective vs. all), 3 more years of control via arbitration that may price out at about $25MM. They have Devin Williams to be the closer and he is really really good ... so maybe even more open to deal Hader.

Padres want to enhance the RP ... Hader really does that at about $5MM in 2021 (offset by Myers' $20MM) and opens more payroll space. Padres could justify eating a chunk of Myers contract to balance the deal OR could add prospects (along with a couple of excess RP) for the balancing .... or some combo of the two.

Possible with the right elements of such a trade, a back of the pen with Hader, Pomeranz, Pagan, and a signing of Rosenthal or Yates could be pretty dominant. Problem ... hole in RF (Ona?). Need then use the payroll space for an OF.

This is Preller ... why not go BIG!

Quote from Randy Manese on October 20, 2020, 9:01 am

There are so many factors to consider when assembling a quality pitching staff with adequate depth that my mantra is that a team should always be looking to add quality arms at a reasonable price.  How one defines quality and reasonable is always the question and the fragility of pitchers health, both physical and mental, is but one of the factors in that evaluation.  The consistency of his mechanics, any semblance of recent growth or decline?   You have to get pretty deep into the analytics plus have "great eye" to recognize what top of the line pitching might be.  For the most part, this Padres' organization has recognized pitchers that project well into the major vice hitters and I think they will continue to do so.  I'm just predicting that what we have at the close of the 2020 season is probably not what we'll see to open the 2021 regular season; pitchers, especially RP, are always on the move, like Kimbrel, Chapman and probably even Hader.

Quote from fenn68 on October 20, 2020, 10:47 am

Perdomo just had TJ surgery ... will miss all of 2021.

Was on the bubble for non-tender this winter ... bubble just burst? (Padres might sign him back on a minor league deal as he rehabs).

Also thought he would have been good enough to be a throw-in in a bigger trade deal ... not now.

Well, opens another roster slot .... Padres are heading towards being well under 40 on the roster at the start of the 2021 season.