Quote from MrPadre19 on October 16, 2020, 1:48 pm

"Any" and I mean "Any" major league innings we get from this kid will be a bonus at this point.

Obviously we've basically written him off until he proves otherwise.

Might be pretty cool to have both Espinoza and Pomeranz in the same bullpen though....

Quote from fenn68 on October 16, 2020, 2:10 pm

I don't think Wingenter qualifies as a minor league FA if he is DFA and clears waivers ... drafted in 2015 so will not have 6 "full" minor league seasons.

Also, I think players such as Wingenter (not established) get tendered a "split contract" ... the ML minimum while in the majors and a minor league salary (a minimum is established ... think about $90K). So (unless on the IL) the money may not be that big an issue.

======

Probably every player is different in how they are handled and viewed by the Padres. Money is money ... so that is always an issue with DFA/non-tender ... probably #1.

If the money in play is not significant .... can look at keeping that player as "insurance" against injury, under performance from others on the roster and a hedge against not actually getting that upgrade. Also, allows for the use of other roster players more freely as trade chips.

Sure if (when) a roster slot is needed (e.g. Rule 5 adds) ... make the move(s). Just making a move just to create a hole that needs to get filled sometime in the future is not necessary. Get the upgrade first ... make the DFA second.

Not that we are discussing keys to the future but getting these "marginal" pieces into and through ST for a better evaluation may allow of the better DFA decision.

With no options ... have to think Guerra (no idea on his situation) or Williams may be high on the DFA list (not that Wingenter is not).

Quote from fenn68 on October 16, 2020, 2:27 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 16, 2020, 12:23 pm

Quote from LynchMob on October 16, 2020, 9:47 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 14, 2020, 6:19 pm

Since Pham is the hot topic ... have to look into the two trades he headlined: STL to TB and TB to SD.

In 2017 Pham had a great season (.931 OPS) was under control for 2018-19-20-21. Yet, in 2018 after a slow (but not bad) start (.730 OPS) he was dealt to TB as a low cost / long control deadline move by TB. Who moved to STL:

1. RF Justin Williams (then 23 now 25) now STL #17 prospect in the minors

2. RHP Roel Rameriz (then 23 now 25) now STL #27 prospect in the minors

3. LHP Genesis Cabrera (then 21 now 23) now arrived in the ML as a RP

Seems like a “light return” from STL perspective especially after 2 years.

Now last winter, after Pham’s arb numbers went up after a strong 2019 (.818 OPS) they chose to move him for Renfroe (cheaper / longer control) but we know his limitations and is only a “part time” player with TB. Not sure how to adjust the trade values for the Cronenworth / Edwards part of the deal but suspect Edwards was valued higher albeit much further away. Even with his $7.9MM salary seems like a light return for his caliber of hitter.

So ... just speculation ... are the sellers seeing something they don’t embrace in Pham and willing to move him for what they can get ... is what they can get somewhat lower because other GM see something they don’t embrace in Pham? Given his hitting “stats” and relatively justifiable contract would think he would be in greater demand.

A friend of mine who is a BIG Cardinals' fan told me exactly this when Padres traded for Pham ... ex. "there's a reason the Cardinals traded him ... they just didn't like him in the clubhouse" ... ouch ... (and, side note: TB seems to be better without him :-()

Look, I've read Pham's story (https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/04/02/tommy-pham-st-louis-cardinals) ... and I'm a fan ... I like finding guys with talent and seeing what happens when put into a position where they can succeed ... and I'd like think that my team, the Padres, can and do do that ... I know it's complicated ...

Bottom line: I'm still rooting for Pham ... I think Padres are better with him ... I want them to succeed together ...

Plus,and I'm sure AJ considered this going in.....Pham seems like the perfect candidate to just "go off" in his contract year.

He's never been paid.

He's at the age where this will be his only shot at a big contract even if it won't be a long term deal.

He is one of the most dedicated and committed players I've seen in a long time....amazing confidence in himself and expects to work his butt off for whatever he does get in life.

He's never been handed anything....so barring injury I would expect him to come into 2021 with a an agenda to just dominate for 162 games.

 

An unanswerable question as to how he will mesh with the Padres roster .... and if he does not ... will that make any difference to the performance of the rest of the roster?

Academic since there are no current realistic options for the Padres LF next season. Pham is your LF. Like him or not but with him STL made the playoffs in 2015 and TB made the playoffs in 2019.

Not going to bet that he gets re-signed after 2021 ... age - health (eyes) - defense - and ????

Quote from fenn68 on October 17, 2020, 8:06 am

At the outskirts of the Padres’ roster, Lin thinks Francisco Mejia, Joey Lucchesi and Trey Wingenter could also be trade candidates.

===============

Not by itself a major revelation but (and I will guess this is just Lin's view) is that he (the Padres) think Campusano can step directly into the #2 catcher role but that really opens a big void for covering an injury at catcher .... no surprise on Lucchesi ... given the TJ, Wingenter as a trade candidate is odd unless he is a throw in in a larger deal and the Padres just want to move on from him (can't have any real trade value).

Love the word COULD ... Tatis COULD be a trade candidate too I guess.

Quote from fenn68 on October 18, 2020, 9:07 am

Saw a note that MLB has said a decision on the NL DH for 2021 will be by the end of the World Series so GMs know the rules to make their winter roster decisions.

I am interpreting that as stating that if no owner - union agreement by then ... negotiations will stop and then revert to the “old rules” with no DH.

Still a “toss-up” ... apparently the union wants it and some of the NL owners but in the world of negotiations ... owners know the union wants it and is seeking some sort of offsetting union concession and that could be the stumbling point. Negotiators may see a better position with more issues on the table negotiating this as part of the CBA next winter.

Owners will see this as costing them more money ... effectively adding another “regular” on the roster at higher pay for those ABs without reducing the pay for pitchers not hitting. A core element of negotiation is never give something without getting something back worth as much (or more).

Outside chance that if the owners can’t get a concession from the Union ... they make the offer anyway (to please the NL owners that want it) and it gets agreed upon.

At last we (and the GMs, agents, players) will know before the roster decisions are made.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 18, 2020, 5:38 pm

I believe there has been only one potential free agent that has already signed with his current team - Yuri Gurriel.  He signed for 2.3 M less than his last contract and took a team option for 8 M, still below his 8.3 M 2020 salary (non-prorated) and will be 37 years old next year.  I expect there will be a few others before the World Series who will do this and possibly many more afterward in this small sample size season wherein performance is hard to judge.

My strategy for the potential FA we are interested to re-sign is to offer what we realistically can and just give the Padres one last chance to match the best offer they receive.  I doubt we'll be the high offer (or should be the high offer) on any of them (Profar, Yates, Rosenthal).  With regard to Moreland, I think 3 M is fair for someone with his experience even if there is no NL DH.  At worst, we can trade him back to the AL for a decent prospect.  He did have a good playoff run (4 for 8) and was coming alive in his late September AB's.

Quote from Ben Davey on October 18, 2020, 11:08 pm

It would not be surprising at all if we dont see many FA signing until after the new year.  All of baseball is waiting on COVID.   If fans are allowed in the stands, teams might be able to open their pocketbooks up more, if not, we will see A LOT of minor league deals.

While I think Campy COULD slot into the #2 catching spot, is it really going to help a prospect sit on the bench 5 days a week?  It makes WAY more sense to have Nola as the starter, Mejia catches 1 day a week and DH 3-4x, and have an old vet like Castro (defensive catcher that is 1 mil or less), to sit on the bench and maybe catch a difficult pitcher or late in games.  It takes up a roster spot but frees up Mejia to DH or play LF.

Quote from fenn68 on October 19, 2020, 6:48 am

Agree that Campusano should be in the minors playing every day ... developing .... and be  ready for a call-up to start if Nola / Mejia get injured.

I see more a split of catching duties (at least as the season matures) towards 2:1 Nola:Mejia. Nola gets a bit more DH time. As I said in the other post, Nola does not look as though he has the body type to catch more than 110 games over a full season (and few catchers in this era do).

If they choose to carry another catcher ... if there is a DH can go with better defensive option (not going to get used much) ...if no DH probably need to go with a better offensive option since will be needed for PH duties. Either case, probably looking for a real low cost option. Reward Rivas?

=============

Also agree that FA signings will be lagged until just before ST (even in ST if the environment is not yet clear). However, if the FA market is filled with options ... not getting signed early .... might see some “panic” in the players / agents and set some real softness in their demands allowing a team that is healthier financially to swoop in and seal a good deal. Advantage maybe for the likes of the NYY .... not so much PITT.

I would guess that GMs enter the winter with a limit on money now available for adds (for some that may be zero) then a second block IF it is clear that some level of fans will be in the stands.

Side note of a potential inequity ... based on today not what might be in 6 months ... but we are seeing fans at sporting events in FLA/TEX and much of the mid-west (maybe 25% capacity) while other locales still without fans (CA). Will that give more flexibility to the teams in “open” locales over “closed” locales given the revenue genteration?

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 19, 2020, 9:37 am

Quote from Ben Davey on October 18, 2020, 11:08 pm

It would not be surprising at all if we dont see many FA signing until after the new year.  All of baseball is waiting on COVID.   If fans are allowed in the stands, teams might be able to open their pocketbooks up more, if not, we will see A LOT of minor league deals.

While I think Campy COULD slot into the #2 catching spot, is it really going to help a prospect sit on the bench 5 days a week?  It makes WAY more sense to have Nola as the starter, Mejia catches 1 day a week and DH 3-4x, and have an old vet like Castro (defensive catcher that is 1 mil or less), to sit on the bench and maybe catch a difficult pitcher or late in games.  It takes up a roster spot but frees up Mejia to DH or play LF.

I like the 3 C idea with Mejia getting significant DH time, but Moreland's presence really hinders it.  Would have 2 C's + a DH on a 5-man bench.  Agree that Pads should pursue an experienced vet C like Castro regardless.

I'm a BIG advocate that guys have to play to truly develop.  I just don't buy that Campusano with 0 pitches caught at MLB, AAA, or AA is somehow magically "ready" to play a large # of games in MLB at C; even with the valuable experience gained at the Alt site this year.  Even if his bat is there, just SO much more to the position.  Frankly, Mejia had even more of a lost season in 2020, not playing much as backup with an injury that partly prevented him from getting any AB's as DH...  would not hurt him to get back on track playing full time in AAA.  Padres DID retain his last option year; very significant.  Moreland might be a 1 year bridge to a 3 C/DH combo in 2022 of :  Nola, Campusano, Mejia (S)....  Typical 7 game week:  Nola C - 3x, Field (1B/2B vs LHP?) or DH - 2-3x;  Campusano C -2-3x, DH - 1-2x; Mejia C 1-2x, DH 3-4x?

I would like to see top prospects actually play AND excel in Minors before annointing them MLB ready, even if that takes an "extra" year due to Covid.   To me this means:  ALL SP prospects pitching as SP's, not RP's in MLB.  Campusano & maybe even Mejia in Minors playing full time vs backup in MLB.