Quote from fenn68 on October 14, 2020, 5:46 pm

Would agree that a 10:30 PM Sunday night “incident” outside a strip club will be a concern for this management. Preller did say the Padres were working on getting deeper into the specifics. Maybe wrong time wrong place but Preller did imply that players should be making smart choices to avoid such incidents such as this.

Considering Pham has only one year control at about $8MM (so expensive without long term value) in his early 30s with poor defense coming off a season where he provided zip for the Padres ... this really doesn’t help justifying his return.

Using his money to re-sign Profar who did help the Padres in 2020 and has superior defense / versatility makes sense to me (IF Profar wants to re-sign). Still leaves a fair amount of money available for additional upgrades.

Yes, Profar could regress ... but Pham is no guarantee to achieve his previous hitting levels now at PETCO (did not in early Aug or late Sep). Then in the world of subjective observation ... Profar really seems to mesh well with the rest of the roster while Pham seems to be a bit more aloof. What we don’t know (and will not) is over the past season how he meshed with Tingler, the coaching staff, Preller .... not a small factor.

Probably is retained ... but tenuous pending Preller search for an upgrade with longer control.

Quote from fenn68 on October 14, 2020, 6:19 pm

Since Pham is the hot topic ... have to look into the two trades he headlined: STL to TB and TB to SD.

In 2017 Pham had a great season (.931 OPS) was under control for 2018-19-20-21. Yet, in 2018 after a slow (but not bad) start (.730 OPS) he was dealt to TB as a low cost / long control deadline move by TB. Who moved to STL:

1. RF Justin Williams (then 23 now 25) now STL #17 prospect in the minors

2. RHP Roel Rameriz (then 23 now 25) now STL #27 prospect in the minors

3. LHP Genesis Cabrera (then 21 now 23) now arrived in the ML as a RP

Seems like a “light return” from STL perspective especially after 2 years.

Now last winter, after Pham’s arb numbers went up after a strong 2019 (.818 OPS) they chose to move him for Renfroe (cheaper / longer control) but we know his limitations and is only a “part time” player with TB. Not sure how to adjust the trade values for the Cronenworth / Edwards part of the deal but suspect Edwards was valued higher albeit much further away. Even with his $7.9MM salary seems like a light return for his caliber of hitter.

So ... just speculation ... are the sellers seeing something they don’t embrace in Pham and willing to move him for what they can get ... is what they can get somewhat lower because other GM see something they don’t embrace in Pham? Given his hitting “stats” and relatively justifiable contract would think he would be in greater demand.

Quote from fenn68 on October 15, 2020, 2:19 pm

For planning purposes .... options have to be exercise 5 days after the end of the World Series (think Moreland)

Then the Rule 5 roster is submitted on Nov 20 as I understand. So, if the Padres exercise Moreland's option they have one open slot and if they want to protect more ... expect an early DFA of a non-tender candidate.

Non-tenders are Dec 2 but suspect that if the club has made a decision on several players we don't see them wait until then ... gives them immediate flexibility and, in fairness to the player, gets there agent out there marketing them early in the FA market.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 16, 2020, 9:16 am

Wingenter is league minimum ... and good chance he goes 60 day IL to start 2021 opening a roster spot. He too has minor league options when he is off the 60 day

Wingenter is in exactly the same position Pedro Avila and (better match) Miguel Diaz were at the end of last season:

Major Surgery coming "late" (July) in season that will essentially keep him out all of 2021.   Avila (still a top 30 prospect) & Diaz like Wingenter clearly have MLB ability/potential, but no one claimed them when they were DFA off roster, b/c would just be paying them MLB $ & service time to be on IL for a full year.  They will eventually need the roster spot for a Rule 5 protect, FA signing, Waiver claim of a healthy player for depth, or "optional" promotion like Gore.

It's true the 40-man roster is nowhere near as "tight" as last year when 9-10 guys were coming off the 60-day IL, but I'd be very surprised if Wingenter is not non-tendered by Nov 20 to open roster room for R5 guys, even if (likely) not all 40-man spots are filled.  Not much point to waiting until Dec 2nd.

 

Quote from LynchMob on October 16, 2020, 9:47 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 14, 2020, 6:19 pm

Since Pham is the hot topic ... have to look into the two trades he headlined: STL to TB and TB to SD.

In 2017 Pham had a great season (.931 OPS) was under control for 2018-19-20-21. Yet, in 2018 after a slow (but not bad) start (.730 OPS) he was dealt to TB as a low cost / long control deadline move by TB. Who moved to STL:

1. RF Justin Williams (then 23 now 25) now STL #17 prospect in the minors

2. RHP Roel Rameriz (then 23 now 25) now STL #27 prospect in the minors

3. LHP Genesis Cabrera (then 21 now 23) now arrived in the ML as a RP

Seems like a “light return” from STL perspective especially after 2 years.

Now last winter, after Pham’s arb numbers went up after a strong 2019 (.818 OPS) they chose to move him for Renfroe (cheaper / longer control) but we know his limitations and is only a “part time” player with TB. Not sure how to adjust the trade values for the Cronenworth / Edwards part of the deal but suspect Edwards was valued higher albeit much further away. Even with his $7.9MM salary seems like a light return for his caliber of hitter.

So ... just speculation ... are the sellers seeing something they don’t embrace in Pham and willing to move him for what they can get ... is what they can get somewhat lower because other GM see something they don’t embrace in Pham? Given his hitting “stats” and relatively justifiable contract would think he would be in greater demand.

A friend of mine who is a BIG Cardinals' fan told me exactly this when Padres traded for Pham ... ex. "there's a reason the Cardinals traded him ... they just didn't like him in the clubhouse" ... ouch ... (and, side note: TB seems to be better without him :-()

Look, I've read Pham's story (https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/04/02/tommy-pham-st-louis-cardinals) ... and I'm a fan ... I like finding guys with talent and seeing what happens when put into a position where they can succeed ... and I'd like think that my team, the Padres, can and do do that ... I know it's complicated ...

Bottom line: I'm still rooting for Pham ... I think Padres are better with him ... I want them to succeed together ...

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 16, 2020, 9:49 am

Non-tenders are in early December ... but realistically Garcia, Perdomo, and Wingenter are not that costly even if they get DFA in ST or if the 40 man roster slot is needed due to a FA signing / trade. No real need to open the slot prematurely.

This is technically true, but it's very likely other teams make these moves by/before Nov. 20th to make their "add backs" off 60-day IL guys, plus their Rule 5 additions.  Teams in general may be conservative & protect more prospects than usual worrying about possibility of even just a few teams tanking their budget & raiding via Rule 5 like Pads did years ago.

Remember, should be a record # of Non-tenders this year, with teams unwilling to gamble even the 1/6 salary (if cut early in ST) on Arb eligible guys with SO much financial uncertainty.  This could create opportunity for the Padres (extremely desirable landing spot) to reach out to Non-tendered players that fill a need and the Pads are comfortable with their potential arb salary, which is more uncertain this season, but still more "defined" range of $ & control than true FA.

Covered Wingenter prior post, think Garcia winds up in MLB this year but making 1 MM less (750-800K range) - maybe even on a Minors deal - doesn't make sense for Padres to be the team to guarantee him even that $ though.  Perdomo is a tough call.  FEELS like he would have minor trade value in a normal year, but I don't know about this season.  IF he did preserve his last minors option, then I hope we keep him, but Pads have so many SP prospects who often get experience in MLB in that long role.  They may just want to open that spot.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on October 16, 2020, 10:55 am

Brian, I agree with your position on Wingenter even if we are unable to re-sign him to a minor league contract.  In my opinion both Garcia and Perdomo don't provide the value to the Padres that their salaries will in arbitration and would occupy valuable 40 man roster slots that would give the team more flexibility.  Down the stretch and into the playoffs, the Padres hardly used Garcia and his final stats nosedived to where his value probably is.  As for Perdomo, don't we already have other pitchers in the system like him, for example Baez, who could replace him probably just as effectively at 1/2 a million dollars less.  Perdomo did have some moments, but we've seen that over the years - there just haven't been enough of them where you can say he is consistent and dependable over an extended period of time.  Perdomo would have a hard time making a normal sized bullpen for the Padres in 2021 and would you option a million dollar player to the minors if that's the best case scenario for him staying with the team?

Certainly the Stammen deal is a bad one, but pretty much all the rest of the potential pen is at value.  In fact, Castillo could be the big surprise since his injuries over the past two years haven't been to his arm but rather his side and hand.  If there is a good offer for Strahm, Castillo has the potential to fill that spot in the bullpen for a much lesser cost.  Johnson is in the last year of his contract and also could be moved for a good offer as well as others without options such as Altavilla and Guerra.  My point is that bullpens are always in constant flux as today's aces becomes tomorrow's flops and vice versa since it almost always is the result of individual match-ups in small sample circumstances.  Only those that can prevail over time, like Hoffy and Rivera, are typically worth the big bucks for longevity with a team.  I'm looking forward to Preller putting together the best bullpen possible at what makes sense dollar-wise and still have enough depth in the system for another 5-8 RPs to come up during the season to replace arms that get tired or injured during a 162 game season.

Quote from Randy Manese on October 16, 2020, 11:18 am

Just read on the San Diego Padres' website that Espinoza is healthy again and pitched very well at the alternate worksite.  If this is true and his health holds, this is an amazing story that could add substantially to our bullpen.  Doubt that he could ever be a starter again, but his stuff was absolutely filthy and he easily could be an early call-up in the 2021 season as a dominant RP that we dream Guerra could evolve to.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 16, 2020, 12:23 pm

Quote from LynchMob on October 16, 2020, 9:47 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 14, 2020, 6:19 pm

Since Pham is the hot topic ... have to look into the two trades he headlined: STL to TB and TB to SD.

In 2017 Pham had a great season (.931 OPS) was under control for 2018-19-20-21. Yet, in 2018 after a slow (but not bad) start (.730 OPS) he was dealt to TB as a low cost / long control deadline move by TB. Who moved to STL:

1. RF Justin Williams (then 23 now 25) now STL #17 prospect in the minors

2. RHP Roel Rameriz (then 23 now 25) now STL #27 prospect in the minors

3. LHP Genesis Cabrera (then 21 now 23) now arrived in the ML as a RP

Seems like a “light return” from STL perspective especially after 2 years.

Now last winter, after Pham’s arb numbers went up after a strong 2019 (.818 OPS) they chose to move him for Renfroe (cheaper / longer control) but we know his limitations and is only a “part time” player with TB. Not sure how to adjust the trade values for the Cronenworth / Edwards part of the deal but suspect Edwards was valued higher albeit much further away. Even with his $7.9MM salary seems like a light return for his caliber of hitter.

So ... just speculation ... are the sellers seeing something they don’t embrace in Pham and willing to move him for what they can get ... is what they can get somewhat lower because other GM see something they don’t embrace in Pham? Given his hitting “stats” and relatively justifiable contract would think he would be in greater demand.

A friend of mine who is a BIG Cardinals' fan told me exactly this when Padres traded for Pham ... ex. "there's a reason the Cardinals traded him ... they just didn't like him in the clubhouse" ... ouch ... (and, side note: TB seems to be better without him :-()

Look, I've read Pham's story (https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/04/02/tommy-pham-st-louis-cardinals) ... and I'm a fan ... I like finding guys with talent and seeing what happens when put into a position where they can succeed ... and I'd like think that my team, the Padres, can and do do that ... I know it's complicated ...

Bottom line: I'm still rooting for Pham ... I think Padres are better with him ... I want them to succeed together ...

Plus,and I'm sure AJ considered this going in.....Pham seems like the perfect candidate to just "go off" in his contract year.

He's never been paid.

He's at the age where this will be his only shot at a big contract even if it won't be a long term deal.

He is one of the most dedicated and committed players I've seen in a long time....amazing confidence in himself and expects to work his butt off for whatever he does get in life.

He's never been handed anything....so barring injury I would expect him to come into 2021 with a an agenda to just dominate for 162 games.