Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2020, 4:42 pm

Now with the non-tender period over ... some more discussion on the direction Preller will go to build the roster. Saw Cassavell’s article and heard an Acee interview based on their “insights” of Padre priorities.

1. Relief pitching upgrades seems at the top of the list .... maybe more than just one proven end of the game type ... at the level of Rosenthal, Hand, Yates.

2. “Value” SP ... not sure what that means in their mind but clearly “low cost” in the baseline. Maybe some minor league (make good) contract for rebound candidates? Sounded if they went via trade ... not a one year control type (x off Lynn). Seem to be willing to lean on the prospects after the top 3.

3. Almost no comments around the bench ... focus on the 8 position slots being solid .. with just a nod to need to improve. Sounded like they may go for bargain basement fills and see what transpires. Acee did not eliminate the potential of a Profar re-sign (depending on the demand). Padres like him ... he likes playing in SD ... put the money in him and get “coverage” in seven field slots with a switch-hitter.

The other Acee comments were about a “controlled” payroll given the effects of the 2020 losses. Although in the long run he thinks Siedler will be more liberal with spending ... in the short run not so much ... so don’t expect those “big” signings.

So, if you believe the $10-15MM to be deployed .... that could be two very good RP ... and then scramble on the SP/bench.

Side: IF they add two very good RP ... and MLB needs RP across the board ... Padres have some decent RP to trade for maybe some bench upgrades (not the RP quality for anyone significant).

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 3, 2020, 5:14 pm

Add Archie Bradley to the list of back end of the Pen arms available.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 3, 2020, 8:44 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2020, 1:14 pm

 

that would be an expensive package. none are coming in at league minimum and if they displace Mateo, Allen, and Mejia (all are minimum dollars) that is a payroll hit before adding the other two slots. Should be some other teams interested in Kendrick and Galvis that would upper their cost.

I like Kendrick's bat but last year he really looked past his prime in the field .... he not getting reps at 3B with Machado and realistically they are not platooning him with Hosmer .... so a PH and real limited spot player .. doubt he likes that.

Galvis may be even harder to sign ... also not cheap ... knowing Tatis is playing almost every day and seeing Cronenworth as the ROY at 2B. SS are needed around the league (and he really wants to be a SS) .... he signs elsewhere.

No interest in Wieters (like Mejia better at this point), Mazara, Bruce, and Rosario are just way too costly for a DH on a team that does not have a DH or a LHH PH when the Padres need RHH PH.

I am OK with Mateo, Allen, and Mejia (at league minimum) and free up the dollars to upgrade with decent players for the other two bench slots.

I could live with either Mateo or Allen, not both. Neither are really legit bench options for a contender, we need to do better. I would say Mateo is the better option since he can play both INF/OF. $600K

Wieters had a better bat than Mejia last season, and has career better numbers than Mejia. Mejia only has 335± ABs in the ML, including 39 very unimpressive ABs last season. He NEEDS to start in AAA to at least start the season. Campusano, if he is not in a GA penitentiary, also needs times in the minors. I think Wieters can be had for about $1.5M, and that gives us a better bat for back up C than we had all last season except for Nola.

With Pham as the LF, we still need another back up LF that can almost be a regular LF until Pham proves that he can stay healthy this year. And then, we still need a LF/DH for the AL games where we have DH, and if that person can be LHH, better so they can relieve Pham against tough RHSP. Which lead me to the Navarro, Bruce, or Rosario. Now I get that they will be more than league minimum, I believe this is the one spot where Preller should splurge, and with the dearth of guys like them, they are not going to command huge salaries IMO, so maybe $4-6M depending on who they sign. $5M

Galvis, he is in a tough spot. There are many extremely good FA SS this year. Simmons, Semien, Gregorius, and Villar, not too mention trades possibilities of Lindor, Correa, Story, and others. Galvis is 31, one of the older FAs, and he knows that his starting time is probably over. I think he can be signed for about $3M.

Thats a bench for about $10M, I know its probably a little more than you probably want to spend on a bench, I think it would be valuable. Still leaves about $9M for pitching upgrades, and Preller can get creative with trades and changing monies,

Quote from BoosterSD on December 3, 2020, 8:45 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 3, 2020, 5:14 pm

Add Archie Bradley to the list of back end of the Pen arms available.

 

As long as he is not the closer, I watched too many DBack games where he is not good in the 9th.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 4, 2020, 12:23 am

I like the idea of asking Machado to defer part of his contract (6-8M?) to invest in the future of this team.  I'd even try to get Pomeranz and Stammen to do the same (maybe restructure to a personal services contract after retirement like Pujols), however, probably none will do that since that seems to be the problem of the owners and not the players to find the resources.  Nonetheless, if  additional money is "found" we possibly could land Rosenthal, a pitcher like Tanaka and even negotiate a multi-year contract with Tatis Jr. , jumping his salary into the 1.5 M range in 2021 as the starting point to a rapidly escalating salary structure over the next few years - the length of which will be wholly under the control of Tatis Jr.  Probably even enough left to restructure a decent bench whether we go with the golden oldies or some of the younger, previously injury prone players who have largely been inconsistent (Alberto excepted).  A lot to wish for but the off-season is the time to speculate!

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 4, 2020, 9:06 am

In a "normal" world, the only way Machado or others under long contract would do this would be if they actually received MORE $ in the future to account for the "time value" (kind of BS with inflation/interest rates so low) of $.

But agents & players have to see that SOME % of  salary $ in 2021 (AND complicating things, maybe 2022 due to new CBA) is at risk of being lost, just like 2020.  If you move $ to 2023 season, barring the unforeseen, you ARE going to receive it.

I've proposed $ deferrals on past thread/s for all 4 guys under big contracts, but the 2022/CBA uncertainty and structure of Myers & Hosmer's contracts in 2023 (Myers-buyout, Hosmer-player opt out) makes it harder to defer $ for them.

Pomeranz' is simple though: he could opt to receive say his 2 MM salary raise this season as part of his already established deferred signing bonus instead.   I don't know if it's allowable to recharacterize $ in MLB this way, but the NFL does it routinely to maneuver around the salary cap.  Unlike the others though, his salary steps up again next year (then is flat in 2023).

But  Machado the biggest contract, so most bang for the buck.  He can still be the highest paid guy on the team, look "selfless"  by 'cutting' his $ to help team  🙂 and very likely come out ahead $ wise in the long run.  Worst case he gets same amount of $, just 1-2 years from now.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 4, 2020, 10:15 am

I've got Tatis plugged in @ 1 MM salary = either big raise or 1st year of big extension.  1.5 or even 2.0 in 2021 not a big deal to payroll.  "Backing into" O.D. payroll sits just below 123 MM now.  23 MM less than 146 MM in '20.  Think we have: 15-20 MM to spend, and "must" somehow acquire FA or Trade 4 MLB (40-man) players:

• "Good" SP
• Closer RP
• INF/Util
• 4th OF

Doesn't count more "luxuries" like another LHRP, 2nd INF bench, etc that might be minimum salary, or DH = undetermined.

IF Clevinger  was healthy he would have cost 3-4 MM more, but moved SP/depth to more of a "luxury".  Would have left 12 - 16 MM to sign remaining 3 needs, which the way things are shaping up in FA would have been very do-able.  Even then, could have "Exchanged" Stammen + a SP asset 2 roster spots & 4-5 MM to allocate towards a closer, but might not have HAD to.

Clevinger's surgery complicates everything:  Harder to trade a SP with Stammen to free up $ & roster spots, but really NEED to do so now for both $ & roster spots to meet all needs.   I HATE the idea of another "big" trade for Blake Snell type.  By tendering Pham, think Trevor Bauer is in pipe dream category; just don't see how they could find the $.

So as I see it, Padres have to either:  1)  Spend more assets to trade for Lance Lynn, 2) Do an unforseen trade that hurts team like Cronenworth + ?? for a decent SP in his arb years, or 3)  Sign a FA; and the market for FA SP looks very strong.

So I like the Japanese FA SP the best.  Most "risk", but most upside.  Highest pro level experience & new guy/look to all hitters.  The posting fee limits the per year salary.  So could be dependent on Padres/Seidler's ability to pay a significant posting fee in tough $ times.

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2020, 10:57 am

I probably would play this closer to the vest ... given the financial issues coupled with the uncertainty of the nature of the 2021 and 2022 seasons ... and not at this time make any moves that may adversely impact the future be that trading elite prospects or deferring money.

Few think the Padres can over take the LAD in the NL West in 2021 ... so the play is for one of the 2 Wild Card slots to achieve a one and done play in game. Probably would wait until the trade deadline to address any critical needs. $10-15MM should be enough on the FA market to cover the current issues.

If the Padres want to contend in the years ahead ... need to keep their prospects and money ready use in 2023 (post Myers, Clevinger, maybe Hosmer ... and the burgeoning costs to pay Lamet, Tatis .. plus others). Getting their replacements ... like them or not ... at playoff quality will not be easy or cheap. By then maybe a better chance to unseat LAD.

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Side on getting players to defer money ... the logic that they might not get any money if 2021 and 2022 are disrupted is just as applicable to the owners who would benefit from not paying any money EVER for the shutdown salaries rather than having to scrape up extra in the future after taking losses during the shut down. Basically if they lose money during a shutdown ... they want to have the players lose money to help offset.

Oddly from an owner's perspective Hosmer's contract is the right form ... $20MM/year in the two risk years of 2021-22 and then $13MM in the three stable years that follow.

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Not all that sure interested in messing with any contract for the minimal dollars considered just to squander it in the short run on marginal pieces with little longer term value.

Quote from fenn68 on December 4, 2020, 12:42 pm

Seeing the comments from Acee / Cassavell that RP appears to be the top priority then looking at the current roster and the landscape of the NL for 2021 ... I can see that logic.

First, unseating the LAD from the NL West winner is unlikely with the respective current roster base and Padres don’t have enough assets to overhaul their side.

Second, with SF, AZ, and COLO looking to be bad in 2021 ... Padres should net a lot of wins with the current roster ... enough wins to be one of the two wild card teams over the non-winners of the NL East and NL Central.

So, adding RP quality not only puts them in a better position to win games during the season (as they control innings with the starters) ... having an elite bullpen is critical for playoff success when you go full bore with the starting position players and adjust to 3 (or 4 SP).

With Lamet showing he can be a legit ace and “effective” Paddack and Davies ... a real strong  bullpen may be the key to going deep in the playoffs ... see how TB got to the World Series this year and think the Padres have a better team overall.

Put the money into RP .... start the season with “serviceable” bench and, if available, a low cost “serviceable” innings eater SP ... then adjust if needed at the trade deadline.