Quote from MrPadre19 on December 2, 2020, 1:13 pm

Maybe Gore/Patiño/Weathers each pitch a 3rd of a season in the #5 slot?

Spend the rest of the time in AA to control their innings.

‘Lamet-Davies-Paddack-Lucchesi-Prospect combo

Barring a SP add which considering the Pham news may have to come via trade.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 2, 2020, 1:16 pm

Good news on Pham IMO.

This either means they have no doubt he will be 100% healthy by opening day OR they had some interest in him from other teams in a trade.

Maybe other teams wanted him but at say....$5 mil and AJ is willing to eat $3 mil to make a deal for a player/s he wants.

More likely he is our LF for the season.

So we need to upgrade the bench and add at least one BP arm and possibly a starter or two to battle for the #5 spot.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2020, 1:24 pm

Probably a very confusing matrix evolves in delivering innings.

A good chance that if Lamet - Davies - Paddack - Lucchesi get 4 slots ... probably will want to have them go 30-32 starts resulting in "shorter" starts and reliance on the RP to cover innings.

If they add an inning eater for the 5th ... maybe same approach. However, if the go with one of the prospects the question is they are doing that up / down rotation with another prospect (can control innings more easily in the minors) or have both in the ML in some rotation of going long / short.

At some point they need to build the innings for the prospects in a controlled environment ... and sitting them full time in the minors would work best. Makes the case for adding a veteran ... at least to start the season while the prospects add innings in a controlled environment.

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More worried about the RP situation with the Padres ... careful use of the starters will put more work on the RP. However, depending on the ones who make the 26 man, we have Johnson, Stammen, Adams, Altavilla, Williams, and Guerra without minor league options. So for the RH side behind Pagan ... cannot rotate with the minors without exposing them to waivers or granting FA. LH side better off although not going to option Pomeranz or Strahm ... maybe a Hill - Castillo - Morejon.

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At least all MLB has the same issue ... so a problem yes ... but not necessarily a competitive disadvantage.

Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2020, 1:37 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 2, 2020, 1:13 pm

Maybe Gore/Patiño/Weathers each pitch a 3rd of a season in the #5 slot?

Spend the rest of the time in AA to control their innings.

‘Lamet-Davies-Paddack-Lucchesi-Prospect combo

Barring a SP add which considering the Pham news may have to come via trade.

 

I would add Morejon into that 5th spot rotation with the other prospects.

Don't really see the Padres using their assets on a trade for a SP that would be better than the prospect rotation ... the sellers know the heightened value of their trade chip and will work the MLB market to squeeze out an over pay.

I am interested in what the Japanese starters come in at (and if the Padres really become players). They pitched innings last year and the two mentioned are "veterans" at around ages 30 and 28 and were effective.

If the $10-15MM is legit to deploy ... based on the signings ... may be able to get a decent closer and an innings eater starter gamble to hold the fort for the prospects (maybe late in 2021). Maybe still have a $1-2MM for bench upgrades (amount over the minimums that have to be paid).

Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2020, 2:05 pm

• The Padres won’t tender a contract to infielder Greg Garcia, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). Garcia, 31, posted a woeful .200/.279/.250 batting line in 2020, albeit in a tiny sample of 71 plate appearances. In parts of two seasons with the Friars, he slashed .240/.351/.337, but the team opted not to give him a raise on last year’s $1.5MM salary.

Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2020, 2:12 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2020, 2:05 pm

• The Padres won’t tender a contract to infielder Greg Garcia, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). Garcia, 31, posted a woeful .200/.279/.250 batting line in 2020, albeit in a tiny sample of 71 plate appearances. In parts of two seasons with the Friars, he slashed .240/.351/.337, but the team opted not to give him a raise on last year’s $1.5MM salary.

Padres will need to find another INF (now an open slot). As it stand on the 40 man only Mateo and Marcano for the INF bench and they will not be the primary bench options for any INF spot for a contender.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 2, 2020, 2:20 pm

The Padres won’t tender a contract to infielder Greg Garcia, reports Kevin Acee

Now that Pham (& presumably everyone else) will be tendered, I have O.D. payroll with: 26-man roster + 2 minimum to backfill for Clevinger & Lawson on IL, and "highest" MLBTR arb projections for all at about:  $122.5 Million.

Will be interesting to see where the arb figures & agreements come in.  Haven't really looked to see if today's lower end guys in arb are "high or low"...  might get an agreement with Altavilla today.  Unpredictable offseason, but I tried to be conservative, so the payroll is likely to go down from that estimate.  If it winds up at  $120 MM that's >25 MM less than last year's 146 MM.

I think the "10 MM" figure to work with is very low.  With Clevinger out but only getting 2 MM, "THE" # is probably more in the  15 - 20 MM range.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 2, 2020, 2:40 pm

This is a weird idea just trying on for size....

Would the Rangers consider trading Lance Lynn.... for Mike Clevinger as the main piece back?   Maybe:

Lynn + decent lower level prospect   for:  Clevinger + Baez?

Padres plug the SP hole with a >100 pitch/game (6.5 IP/GS last 2 years) workhorse.  "Net" cost in 2020 is "only" 6 MM.  Clear about 18 MM in salary next year but lose both Davies & Lynn.... unless one or both good enough for QO, which they would likely take.

Texas saves 6 MM in covid-2021 season, gets future value for Lynn, backfills with Baez to get a real look as a SP he might be blocked from in SD.

Stupid?  Genius?  what do you guys think?

Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2020, 2:47 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 2, 2020, 2:20 pm

The Padres won’t tender a contract to infielder Greg Garcia, reports Kevin Acee

Now that Pham (& presumably everyone else) will be tendered, I have O.D. payroll with: 26-man roster + 2 minimum to backfill for Clevinger & Lawson on IL, and "highest" MLBTR arb projections for all at about:  $122.5 Million.

Will be interesting to see where the arb figures & agreements come in.  Haven't really looked to see if today's lower end guys in arb are "high or low"...  might get an agreement with Altavilla today.  Unpredictable offseason, but I tried to be conservative, so the payroll is likely to go down from that estimate.  If it winds up at  $120 MM that's >25 MM less than last year's 146 MM.

I think the "10 MM" figure to work with is very low.  With Clevinger out but only getting 2 MM, "THE" # is probably more in the  15 - 20 MM range.

 

See the current payroll the same as you. The wild card now that Fowler is out (he was the "conservative" spender) and Siedler is in (guess more "liberal" ... but not foolish) there MAY be some extra flexibility but only if the "right player" is available. Agree might go to $140-142MM but really don't see it with the players available and the fact they really have their starting 8 set. For now probably more like $135MM with some money in reserve for a mid-season add if in contention or a DH if approved for 2021.

$8MM for a RP at the Rosenthal level (maybe less for Yates) ... a bench OF plus a bench INF maybe $2-4MM total ... then the fuzziness around a veteran innings eater SP.