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#231 · December 1, 2020, 4:43 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2020, 2:05 pmAgain a head scratching signing of a FA pitcher ... Mike Minor for $18MM/2 years (MLBTR had him a $6MM/1 year). SP are getting the money consistently outstripping the MLBTR estimates ... yet the dialogue still runs on the financial struggles of teams will depress the FA market. Seems a bit of a disconnect. "Worse" it was the Royals ... small market team.
This is a strange winter.
Morton, Smyly, & Minor are double $$$ that was projected by MLBTR. Robbie Ray + 33% more... even the AAV's on Gausman & Stroman accepting QO are high relative to their past... Think teams are (correctly) assessing that simply surviving a full season pitching wise is going to be a major challenge coming off of only 60 games & no Minor league season.
I feel pretty confident we could get a significant prospect back for 100% of Stammen's contract + Lucchesi... but with Clevinger already gone, don' t know if we can risk losing Joey. He's gone 150 MLB IP twice with OK #'s... others are all unproven potential.
#232 · December 1, 2020, 5:16 pm
Depends on what you classify as "significant" but the recent signings would suggest the trade value of Lucchesi may be better than before and even Stammen may have a market with someone taking his contract. Of course, given the state of the Padres SP/RP ... they just may become more valuable to keep over spending even more to replace them.
Although not a long term Lucchesi fan ... as it stand ... he may be the leader for the #4 slot given his proven ability to carry a big workload with an ERA just above 4.00. The "prospects" are fighting for #5 and then a bump of Lucchesi. Almost have to hold on him until an upgrade is in hand.
I know Stammen is not a favorite but he too provides a lot of workhorse innings in the middle of the game with a decent overall performance (at least in 2019) compared to similarly position RP in the ML. Once you get past Stammen and Pagan ... none of the other RHRP have much of a record of innings (or quality performance) in the ML. Same as with Lucchesi, need to have some better options in hand.
Basically in a 162 game / 6 month season ... Padres need some arms they can "rely on" to pitch bulk innings or the other options likely will be burned out by August.
#233 · December 1, 2020, 9:09 pm
For the record, I like both Stammen & Joey.
Stammen REALLY got the short end of the stick last year with the bad idea from the start of young 5th SP's who weren't able to go 4 IP "locking in" overuse of an undermanned bullpen till trade deadline. Got left out there to die too many times on too little rest. In a full season Stammen has WAY more value with his vet leadership, durability, and not being phased coming in with runners on. Not a late inning guy, but a valuable one in a long season. The deeper we get into FA, the more "OK" his contract might look... but 1/5 or 2/8 MM + 500 K incentives in '21 is steep for what he is at this stage of career.
In hindsight, the leash on Joey was WAY too short. In a normal season, don't see him getting removed from the rotation after 2 years starting due to 2 bad starts to open season... including at Colorado. I agreed to an extent at the time; but the way it played out was really doomed from the get go.... there wasn't actually a "better" 5th SP option, b/c the more talented guys couldn't go long enough. That being said, Joey rushed quickly to MLB as a Senior sign, and has been either unable or unwilling to change his approach & develop another pitch.
But IMO Stammen's $ needs to be allocated to a Closer in the pen. Joey (or M. Baez) is the most logical cheap long control asset to attach to lure a trade partner... maybe for a lower salary range bench OF or INF? $ saved towards closer, another need filled? Or just best prospect you can get. $ saved almost enough to get a Yates or even Rosenthal back; upgrade over Stammen.
#234 · December 2, 2020, 4:12 am
8 PM EST
Very interesting day. I wonder how long it will take to get the word out?
#236 · December 2, 2020, 6:28 am
Have to weigh the risk of NOT being able to sign any targeted player (at the targeted price) before moving on from a Stammen (or any player) to save money for that purpose.
No guarantee that the FA will sign or that “extra” would be enough to outbid another team. If Stammen has a trade market ... probably has a trade market in ST if the money is “needed”.
Similar with Lucchesi ... but if being traded for a prospect, no point in doing that early ... again get a replacement first ... Padres need SP options and he is at minimum cost.
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If the $10-15MM rumored available ... they have the necessary money to sign a top tier RP in this market already and money left over to upgrade the bench.
#237 · December 2, 2020, 7:40 am
Saw a set of trade ideas for TB and moving Snell ... one included the Padres. The suggestion was Snell to SD for Campusano, Patino, and Morejon. (no way the Padres should do that).
Yes, Snell is a very good SP but probably way over valued by the national media based on his 2018 dominant Cy Young season. Yes, he is just 28 and on a good contract for the next three years ($11.1MM, $13.1MM, $16.6MM) but not without some major downside / limitations. Consider:
2017 .... 129.1 innings / 24 starts .... 5.4 innings / start ... 4.04 ERA
2018 .... 180.2 innings / 31 starts ... 5.8 innings / start .... 1.89 ERA
2019 .... 107 innings / 23 starts ...... 4.7 innings / start .... 4.29 ERA
2020 ... 50 innings / 11 starts ....... 4.5 innings / start .... 3.24 ERA
If you don't get blinded by the hype around 2018 and just look at the rest of his body of work ... is he much better than Lucchesi? I know TB is different in handling pitchers but for an "elite" SP have to be very concerned about the drop in innings per start ... and just the level of innings per start forcing a robust bullpen to carry him in order to get a win.
Hard pass on Snell.
#238 · December 2, 2020, 10:34 am
- Hard pass....BIG TIME!
I'd even say by 2022, our 3 guys will be outperforming Snell.
Unless the Rays have sexually explicit pictures of Siedler or Preller, that deal would NEVER happen
#239 · December 2, 2020, 11:50 am
Dennis Lin
The Padres plan to tender Tommy Pham a contract, sources tell The Athletic. There had been speculation that the left fielder would be non-tendered as the Padres look for ways to reallocate payroll. Pham could be due about $8 million in 2021.
#240 · December 2, 2020, 12:12 pm
Heard an interesting discussion today on what teams may be valuing in FA / trades for pitchers IN 2021 .... that is RELIABLE INNINGS.
With a "normal" 162 slate teams need to cover about 1450 innings.
With the way 2020 played out ... none of the prospects got the development work to move up their innings profile while the ML arms only topped out around 60. Even the work of RP was light for the need in a full season.
So, need a some innings eaters to start and in the pen to provide those innings or the staff will be burned out (or worse incurring injuries) by August. Might need to pass on some potential performance for that stability to help out the entire staff.
Makes a ton of sense for 2021 while pitchers build up to normal work levels for 2022. If you buy that thesis, then even adds more value to Lucchesi / Stammen suggesting that Gore, Patino, and Morejon should not be relied upon for a full 2021. Additionally, add to the logic of pursuing the Japanese pitchers who did pitch a full season in Japan.
Also wonder if we see more multi-inning guys / starters in the pen than usual just to work through the workload challenge for both the starters and the rest of the pen.